I live in N.E. Florida, not real cold in winter, usually, we get 80 deg. days in Jan. sometimes. So hives stay pretty active year 'round, when late Feb. early Mar. rolls around, better split 'em or they find more room elsewhere and leave a fresh queen and half the town behind. Thats pretty much standard for all my hives. But I'm just one dude, and no expert.
These are living things. You can't calc what they will do.
Just like studies that say this or that - their living and different from each other in tolerance and health, etc.. So if a study says this will happen - it may or it may not, depends how much you bees are like the bees in the study
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