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I have been playing around with Randy's varroa model and have read the instructions, as well as listened to his tutorials, but I'm not sure if I am using it appropriately.

My goal was to see what the model would predict for my colonies based on my two most recent alcohol washes.

I fooled around with the model so that it achieves the same alcohol wash mite counts that I had on August 15 and September 1. I did that by entering hypothetical mite reduction figures for previous months and I did that in various combinations. Each of the combinations produced the exact mite counts that I had on those dates and also predicted the same outcome for my colonies in terms of end of year mite population. Unfortunately, it has it crashing by November 1 if I were not to do anything although I am in the midst of an Apivar treatment.

Is what I did a reasonable way to utilize the model?

Thank,
Kevin
 

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Even Randy says he can't predict what any one hive will do. It is more of a general guide to what the average result will be. Some bees seem to fight the mites well, others don't. Some hives will rob out a dying colony. Too many variables to use for just a few hives.

The Apivar treatment will invalidate the model anyway.

I wonder how Randy's breeding experiment is going. He has not posted an update in quite a while.
 

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What you did was just the first step.

Now, you can project the mite population based on the expected reduction due to the Apivar treatment.
Then, when the Apivar treatment is complete, you can do more alcohol washes and see if the treatment was sufficient.
 

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What you did was just the first step.

Now, you can project the mite population based on the expected reduction due to the Apivar treatment.
Then, when the Apivar treatment is complete, you can do more alcohol washes and see if the treatment was sufficient.
Now that's a good reply.
 
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