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I haven't done a study on it, so I can only speak of my personal experience, but I think saying the queen in a package has a 50/50 success rate is very low. I have been ordering packages for years and have never had a queen not be accepted (I might be the odd one out though). But this 50% rate depends on over what time frame. If the author is saying over the course of the next year, I would believe that, but being accepted into the hive when you install the package, it's much higher then 50%.

I think by the author saying you need to wait 5 days to pull the cork, then 3 more days to let the queen escape is absurd. The queen has been with the package for 2+ days while in shipping. If the day it comes you pull the plug, that gives it another 3 days, for a total of 5 days for the bees to accept her. They are in swarm mode anyway, and that is plenty of time.

It only takes about a day or two for the old queen scent to leave. Most people call it at three days to be on the safe side. Ten days total (2 shipping, 5 waiting, 3 to get through the candy) is way too long in my opinion.

But again, maybe I'm just lucky.
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