If you go to thebeeyard.org they have a queen rearing calendar that you can look at. The new queen is capped on day 8. The old queen and swarm leave right as she is capped I believe. The calendar says that she is mated and returns and starts laying. Check for eggs on day 33 and check for larvae on day 38. Re-queen if no eggs are present on day 40.
If you go into the hive on day 12 you can make splits with frames with capped queen cells. I just did 3 splits from my hive. Or you can just do 1. By the way, the calendar says day 9,10 and 11- Sensitive developmental phase- do not move cells and be very gentle when opening the hive.
I'm not that patient. On the day it swarmed I would go in there to see if there are QCs, if they are capped and how many. If there are capped QCs I would then leave them alone for about 2 weeks +/- depending on flying weather.
My preference is somewhere in between. Unless you know something more specific about the age of the queen cells, assume the old queen swarmed about the time the queen cells were capped (this does vary, but if that’s all the information you have, then you make your best guess). So, swarm date plus 8 days = approx date of virgin queen emergence. Then I would add another 14 days to the date of emergence for her to mate, mature, and start laying. This 14 day period can vary as well - shorter if good weather, longer if bad weather. So, at approximately 22 days from the date of the swarm is when I would check for eggs and larvae.
Keep in mind that it is best to avoid hive disturbance during the queen mating and maturity time period.
Also, before queen emergence, while the queen cells are capped, I would suggest that you go into the hive and reduce the number of queen cells down to 2 or 3 healthy cells that are fairly close together on the frame. By doing this, you are minimizing the chances of a cast swarm.
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