Years ago we started keeping records of blooms etc. The surprising thing that taught us, most of the time when we see something blooming and say 'wow that is early', going to the records disputes that as often as not. Invariably it's within a few days of the average for the last few years.
Using this year as an example, we dont have anything blooming yet,but I did see the first robin back a couple days ago. Our records show, average date for return of Robins, March 15 plus or minus 6 days. This year, March 9. Imagine that, it's right on schedule even tho it seems really early....
I remember having this discussion with a friend last year, he was adamant his plum tree was blooming 'weeks early'. After we went to our records, turns out the plum tree was early last year, a whole day ahead of the 5 year average.....
What this exercise has taught us over the years, the seasons are pretty consistent, but, our memory of when things bloom is absolute crap.
I keep records and have for over 20 years, GDD's.
For my location lets go to the tape. GDD 32 degree base.
Compare spring this year with spring last year, same bee yard:
This year 2020 last year 2019
1/17- 148 (30 yr avg 50) 1/14- 77
1/24- 154 ---------------- 1/22- 87
1/31-197 ---------------- 1/31-99
2/8-256 (30 yr avg 122) 2/12-155
2/17-307 ---------------- 2/19-180
2/27-379 ------------------ 2/26-206
Warmer, yup. Earlier, yup.
Blooms earlier, yup. And more than a few days either side of a 'expected' average.
See those 30 yr averages for GDD?
What is consistent is bloom time according to GDD.
This time though, around these parts, those that just say it's earlier from memory are right. And have been more often than not recently.