I figure something other than swarming happened to my queen. In my best hive (6 gallons of surplus honey last year as a starting nuc colony), inspection yesterday revealed no queen, no eggs, no uncapped brood, rare capped brood and most of that was drone cells. Found one capped supercedure cell that I damaged when I pulled that frame out. Last inspected 3 weeks previously and noted (from my records) "one or two empty swarm cell cups." By my math, no eggs have been laid for about 2-2.5 weeks since shortly after I last inspected. If there had been a swarm, wouldn't the replacement queen have been out by now? If a new queen were to emerge now (or be introduced) wouldn't there be a problem with a shortage of nurse bees given how few capped brood cells there were?