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Two 8-frame Langstroth hives
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I know that first year queens tend not to swarm. I have set up some swarm traps hoping I'll catch some.

My question is how likely is it for a caught swarm to swarm again within the first year?
 

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5 ,8 ,10 frame, and long Lang
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depends on how much room they have and the timing of adding it.

I have over the last 3 years never had a swarm , swarm.
 

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Sure.
This year I had a swarm that swarmed.
Just like that.
But I collected 11 swarms this year.
So - 1/11 is the swarmy swarm ratio.
Not much.
 

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Great hives with excellent genetics swarm. They are "programmed" through evolution to do so. There is no way to know if you caught a great queen in your swarm trap, or a inferior queen in your swarm trap (assuming you were not familiar with her before she swarmed).

The most likely scenario to happen when a mated queen leaves with a swarm is that she is soon replaced (superseded) by the colony, giving you a new queen and a lengthy brood break. As you said, new queens are less prone to swarm (but they will).

I think this is the major factor (the colony requeening itself) why you do not see swarms from same-season swarm catches.
 

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I have had a may swarm donate 3 bars of brood, fill a KTBH, and re swarm in july as I was waiting for them to cap the honey, I fed the snot out of the nucs I pulled out of it and one started swarm cells mid OCT with no drones around for over a month

when we talk about weather a line is "swarmy" we mean it doesn't respond to standard swarm management such as adding space, drawn comb, revercing, checkerboarding, etc.
put a swarm in a nuc and it likely will reswarm, give it space and good management its not likely.. unless it swarmy... I have have them leave with under 1/2 of a double deep set up occupied

Eva Cranes records from an old skep beekeeper show us what the past looked like
https://www.evacranetrust.org/uploads/document/9cb7fced9e5db46beb810b8cc3f9f1797e2c5995.pdf
Owen Thomas's records of swarms, written in a consistent and clear
style throughout, are translated in full below. They cover the twenty
years 1757 to 1776, except that 1775 lacks an entry; possibly there were
no swarms in that year.
1757 : One old hive: the first swarm 7 June, the second swarm 20 June;
swarm out of the first swarm 8 July, second swarm from the first
22 July.
page 11 for the rest of the entrys

we see in old welsh law values set on swarms "heit gyntaf a del o'r tarwheit" (prime swarm from 2nd after swarm) makes the bottom of the list @ 4d, but means it WAS a thing
with a prime swarm worth 16d and established colony 24d, and any swam after aug 1 4d
see The World History of Beekeeping and Honey Hunting page 255
 
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