We've been told not to expect a surplus and to plan to leave it all for the bees the first year.
And then every time we say that's our plan, we're told, "You never know ... you might get quite a bit". We're starting with nucs, which supposedly gives a head start (they'll have less foundation to draw out and emerging brood ready to enter the workforce), plus we should have ideal forage with little competition. We'll feed from day one until they lose interest in syrup. Be fun to see what happens when the tulip poplars bloom, and IF the black locusts bloom.
We've got two medium supers available for each hive. Our plan is, if they fill those, we'll start swapping out a few frames at a time and extract those.
Bottom line, I guess, is don't count your honey bottles just yet. But have some ready.