Never had nucs abscond during the prime season, typically I lose them in fall, finding them empty either because of mite pressure or robbing pressure. The only one I lost this year was brand new split that I found 95% of the bees bearding in the afternoon outside the nuc with 3 frames of abandoned brood inside. I intro'd a virgin and they absconded with her later that day but as luck had it, it was the first day we hit over 100 as well. In my opinion, weak-slow building colonies tend to abscond more at some point, just an observation I've made. They tend to start building up, and then they're just gone one day as you've kind of described, hit a certain mass and they leave for greener pastures.