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What with changes in climate and available forage, are you noticing changes in when your bees start to swarm? Are your swarm start dates changing? If yes why do you think?
Strong hive weaker hive?
Number of warm days?
Long wet winter / other abnormal conditions?
Average night temperatures?
Number of weeks of forage?

Send your 1) old vs new date changes 2) theories as to why and 3) your zip code if you would.

Thanks!

Brian of LiveHoneybees
 

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Your data is goign to be unreliable if all you do is collect information from those that have seen a change. Sort of like saying 100% of the people polled say they like drink X. But then we didn't poll those that don't like it.

On that note 89510 saw no change regardless of a very mild winter last year. All swarms I know of landed in the typical April to May window. By June bee collection was via trapping or cut outs only.
 

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Daniel Y is right, there are way too many variables, but I would guess the biggest thing that determines the swarm date is the size of the hive going into the winter, and the size of the stores in the fall as well. Weak hungry hives are not going to swarm as early. This is my opinion, so it is probably wrong.
 

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What is important for me is the progress of the pollen sources toward their Spring offereings; i.e., is Spring early, on time, or late...? Speaking with Joe at Dansk farms today revealed that they are about three weeks early so far. I'm going to get the supers out earlier than I would have before the conversation. :)
 
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