[Hambone]

Hambone’s Official Predictions

Winner: Dublin

Trifecta: Dublin, Super Saver, Mission Impazible

Superfecta: Dublin, Super Saver, Mission Impazible, Noble's Promise

 

[hemichuck]

Hambone,do you have any history of making good Derby picks? My business is only about 6 blocks from Churchill Downs,I could drop by and make you a bet! I'm not a horse person(usually dont even know who's in the Derby till I draw my jackpot) Most Louisvillians go prior to Derby Day and leave that day for the tourist but we do use it as an excuse to party(like we need one,the whole states economy is based on Bourbon,Tobacco and Horse racing)

 

[Hambone]

but we do use it as an excuse to party(like we need one,the whole states economy is based on Bourbon,Tobacco and Horse racing)

I'm putting my house up for sale today. I know where I am moving.

I'm pretty good at picking horses in general. The derby is really hard though. 20 top horses. I mostly get 2 of the four I picked. So I will add a 4 horse exacta box to the mix. Most likely I will go to the drive-thru window at lone star park or my brother will place my bet at Retama in San Antonio.

Bets will go like this

$2 on the winner
$2 4 horse trifecta (I will put all four in to increase my chances) cost $48.00
$2 Superfecta cost $48.00
$2 4 horse exact box $24.00

Total bet $122.00 (gotta hide that from the wife somehow) She just doesn't understand.

 

[Tom G. Laury]

I have never gambled online but if there is any way to make Bones' bet I wanna find out.

 

[Hambone]

I have never gambled online but if there is any way to make Bones' bet I wanna find out.

I will look for ya Tom. You can't bet ponies online in Tx. We are one of the only states you can't. Though my bets are bound to change. Won't know the way I am going to really go until Saturday afternoon.

 

[Hambone]

I have never gambled online but if there is any way to make Bones' bet I wanna find out.

Looks like things have changed. You can bet online. My local track said to use http://www.xpressbet.com/

I used to use www.brisbet.com

 

[Tom G. Laury]

Thanks Derek!

 

[Hambone]

Derby field with post positions and early odds:

• 1. Lookin At Lucky, 3-1

• 2. Ice Box, 10-1

• 3. Noble's Promise, 12-1

• 4. Super Saver, 15-1

• 5. Line Of David, 30-1

• 6. Stately Victor, 30-1

• 7. American Lion, 30-1

• 8. Dean's Kitten, 50-1

• 9. Make Music For Me, 50-1

• 10. Paddy O'Prado, 20-1

• 11. Devil May Care, 10-1

• 12. Conveyance, 12-1

• 13. Jackson Bend, 15-1

• 14. Mission Impazible, 20-1

• 15. Discretely Mine, 30-1

• 16. Awesome Act, 10-1

• 17. Dublin, 12-1

• 18. Backtalk, 50-1

• 19. Homeboykris, 50-1

• 20. Sidney's Candy, 5-1

 

[Hambone]

Hambone’s Official Predictions

Trifecta: Dublin, Super Saver, Mission Impazible, Paddy O'Prado

My official bet will be a 4 horse Trifecta Box. I am taking out Nobel’s Promise and replacing with Paddy O'Prado.

 

[hemichuck]

Hambone,You better pick some mud runners because the forcast for Sat.is rain,rain,and more rain.They said this might be the wettest Derby since 1918.Good luck with your picks.

 

[Hambone]

That's what I am hearing!! Hard to find a mudder. Problem is I read to much about the race and do to much research and change my mind a million times. I just need to stick to my gut picks.

Ex. Here are the top horse's breed for this distance and their Tomlinson number.

Post Number: Name: Odds: Tomlison Number:
4. Super Saver 15-1 (364)
15. Discreetly Mine 30-1 (336)
1. Lookin at Lucky 3-1 (307)
16. Awsome Act 10-1 (300)

I have the 4. But he is the only one. I really like 15 too. A lot. Might change out Paddy O'Prado with Discreetly Mine. Or maybe someone else. I hate this! I will post what I bet...once I finally make up my mind!

 

[tonyp]

Alright Hambone I'll bite. With all the speed in there I figure you have to bet one of two ways, bet the closers or bet the fastest of all the speed horses which is the 5 horse. If the track does come up sloppy he should have an advantage provided he can run on the slop and doesn't bounce off that last race. So who will be closing, I think the 5 may come up a little short so let's play a 1$ tri-key 5 over the 1,2,16,17 and play the 5 second and third with the same horses. I know it's a longshot but at 30-1 the tri should be pretty juicy. That's what I'm going with and I'm going to bet the 7th race at Beulah Park Lucky Express to win. Good luck Hambone.

 

[Hambone]

Ok Tony. You sold me on the 5 horse.

The bets have been made. Here is what I did.

Trifecta Box. 4,14,15,17
Exacta Box 1,4
Exacta Box 5,10

 

[tonyp]

I hope you didn't bet much I'll feel bad if he doesn't fire.

 

[Hambone]

Results:

4/2/10

4 Super Saver $18.00
2 Ice Box $11.20
10 Paddy O'prado $7.40

$2 Exacta 4-2 $152.40
$1 Trifecta 4-2-10 $1,168.70
$1 Superfecta 4-2-10-9 $101,284.00

 

[tonyp]

You was all around it. The 5 didn't fire at all, looked like he wasn't gripping the track. That or he just wasn't fast enough. Watch out for Ice Box in the Preakness.