With a mated Queen eggs in a few days
with a cell eggs in couple weeks
or just do a split eggs in 3 ish weeks
how many combs of bees will you start with, 3 VRS 7 is a big difference, for instance.
How many comb of stores can you add 0 to 4 is a big difference.
time to get the queen mated , lay at least 2 rounds of bees " 42 days"
Have , receive or collect enough stores for winter.
then it would depend on how hard is your winter. and how much you can baby them.
I gave it some "Deep Thought" too. Count back 42 days from the time a hive typically goes broodless for the fall. This is when you need to have three frames of bees, stores, and a laying queen in your nuc. Add in the days to get to the laying queen part. Here in Richmond, I can overwinter a walkaway split started the first of August, or a nuc with a queen introduced around the end of August. Any time after that becomes a crapshoot.
I realize this is all in retrospect, Since Andy originally asked the question 6 months ago. Still may help others going forward.
Well thought out answer JW. The fall flow or lack of one will make or break a nuc if you don't watch them. Feed early if necessary. Add brood if needed. Treat always.
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