Will the coronavirus negatively affect the beekeeping industry? - Page 3
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  1. #41
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    Default Re: Will the coronavirus negatively affect the beekeeping industry?

    Quote Originally Posted by grozzie2 View Post
    It's like trying to correct the flat earth crowd, thee is no point. They have a belief system and no amount of factual information will change those beliefs.
    How do you deal with the factual information being presented here that you are not responding to? It's being presented by folks that think you are a member of the flat earth society and motivated by a belief system.....

    death.jpg
    Last edited by c-bees; 04-07-2020 at 05:50 PM.
    8 years, 30 colonies, no chemical treatments

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  3. #42
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    Default Re: Will the coronavirus negatively affect the beekeeping industry?

    "Will the coronavirus negatively affect the beekeeping industry?"

    That's the title of this thread. Please stay on point.

    "My wife always wanted girls. Just not thousands and thousands of them......"

  4. #43
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    Default Re: Will the coronavirus negatively affect the beekeeping industry?

    It has and will continue to

    My main worry is some of our living legends in our industry will turn in to legends
    "oh well, let us stick to science. let them have their beliefs and intuitions!" -Medhat Nasr

  5. #44
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    Default Re: Will the coronavirus negatively affect the beekeeping industry?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ravenseye View Post
    "Will the coronavirus negatively affect the beekeeping industry?"

    That's the title of this thread. Please stay on point.

    Correct, I'll answer it more directly then: Being that Covid-19 is actually, according to the numbers, one of the least deadly viruses, beekeepers' chances of dying of it are too tiny to wreck our economy and civilization over. In fact, and it is a fact, more
    beekeepers will die from all of the comfort eating of the quarantine junk food that they hoarded than from the actual flu (the Corona strain or any other), with obesity-related mortalities dwarfing flu deaths every single year. In beekeepers in the industry.
    8 years, 30 colonies, no chemical treatments

  6. #45
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    Default Re: Will the coronavirus negatively affect the beekeeping industry?

    Quote Originally Posted by Cloverdale View Post
    Huh. Really? Every healthy person with no underlying conditions? Tell that to my 20 something neice who is healthy and has no underlying conditions who is now suffering with Covid-19. And infected her mother and 29 year old brother.
    Did they die? Let me take a swing in the dark and guess NO. Therefore i don't know what you're trying to get at. That doesn't affect what i said. I didn't say it was impossible for the younger to catch just that the only people dying from this are old and already sick people. Is it worth putting 10 million people out of a job over this? The answer is pretty clearly NO.

  7. #46
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    Default Re: Will the coronavirus negatively affect the beekeeping industry?

    Quote Originally Posted by c-bees View Post
    How do you deal with the factual information being presented here that you are not responding to? It's being presented by folks that think you are a member of the flat earth society and motivated by a belief system.....

    death.jpg
    Your numbers kind of prove the point that the medical folks have been trying to make, but you apparently choose not to believe. The pandemic is about exponential growth. Your graphic shows the numbers from Jan 1 to March 25 as 21,000 folks died to the corona virus. That was two weeks ago. Today the number is in the vicintiy of 82,000, so in the two weeks since that graphic was taken, 60,000 more have died, it has effectively doubled weekly since you took that snapshot graphic.

    Rates are growing exponentially, and will continue to do so till folks do something about it, or, 60% of the population has been infected as that's is the magic number where 'herd immunity' will begin to slow the spread, and that's about 200 million folks.

    A simple math exercise for you. Let the virus run wild to reach the point of herd immunity. To get there, in the USA, that requires allowing roughly 200 million folks to become infected. At the 98% survival rate you quoted earlier, how many will die from that exercise ? That's really easy arithmetic, doesn't even require using exponents to calculate an exponential growth curve.

  8. #47
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    Default Re: Will the coronavirus negatively affect the beekeeping industry?

    Quote Originally Posted by grozzie2 View Post
    Your numbers kind of prove the point that the medical folks have been trying to make, but you apparently choose not to believe. The pandemic is about exponential growth. Your graphic shows the numbers from Jan 1 to March 25 as 21,000 folks died to the corona virus. That was two weeks ago. Today the number is in the vicintiy of 82,000, so in the two weeks since that graphic was taken, 60,000 more have died, it has effectively doubled weekly since you took that snapshot graphic.

    Rates are growing exponentially, and will continue to do so till folks do something about it, or, 60% of the population has been infected as that's is the magic number where 'herd immunity' will begin to slow the spread, and that's about 200 million folks.

    A simple math exercise for you. Let the virus run wild to reach the point of herd immunity. To get there, in the USA, that requires allowing roughly 200 million folks to become infected. At the 98% survival rate you quoted earlier, how many will die from that exercise ? That's really easy arithmetic, doesn't even require using exponents to calculate an exponential growth curve.
    When this hype dwindles, level headed experts that you will ignore will show that the mortality rate of this flu was far less than 2%, and even then, things like pneumonia and other strains of flu were called Covid-19 deaths, and it will still be far, far below 2%. The suicides of folks whose lives were destroyed by this hysterical over reaction will be more than the Corona flu deaths. Again, to stay on topic, I sincerely hope that no honeybees die of flu related symptoms.....
    8 years, 30 colonies, no chemical treatments

  9. #48
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    Default Re: Will the coronavirus negatively affect the beekeeping industry?

    Quote Originally Posted by c-bees View Post
    When this hype dwindles, level headed experts that you will ignore will show that the mortality rate of this flu was far less than 2% ...
    I don't really understand the appeal of statistics. It may be highly relevant for remote government planners - people who need an overview of large populations - but on an individual level it's always 50/50.

    Either you contract the virus or you don't - 50/50. If you should be unlucky enough to contract it, then you either survive or you don't - again, that's 50/50.

    And those are not particularly good odds to be betting with - even Russian Roulette with a loaded gun gives you 5 chances out of 6 to survive, and that's not a game I'd ever fancy playing.

    Same with weather forecasts: "12% chance of rain" - what help is that to a guy planning to take the roof off his barn for repairs, or doing some outside painting ? It's either going to rain or it's not - 50/50.

    I sometimes wonder whether focusing on small percentages is about a search for reassurance ? If so, it's an abstract exercise - I'd recommend adopting physical precautionary measures instead, rather than relying on statistical probability.
    LJ
    A Heretics Guide to Beekeeping http://heretics-guide.atwebpages.com/

  10. #49
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    Default Re: Will the coronavirus negatively affect the beekeeping industry?

    Already is effecting our industry. Vermont first eliminated nuc sales to hobby beekeepers. Not an essential business. Then they changed to no more than 10 customers on the farm at one time...but now they say no nuc sales to out of state beekeepers. We'll see

  11. #50
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    Default Re: Will the coronavirus negatively affect the beekeeping industry?

    Same with weather forecasts: "12% chance of rain" - what help is that to a guy planning to take the roof off his barn for repairs, or doing some outside painting ? It's either going to rain or it's not - 50/50.
    In that case, you plan to work on a 5% chance day and don't on an 85% chance day..
    In a way, I get what you're saying if as a group BYBK's with 1 hive take 35% losses... on an individual level as they only have one hive they either have 100% survival or 100% losses

    but your twisting that, saying something akin to "they don't need to treat for mites, as it doesn't matter, it's going to be 50/50 no matter what they do"
    2 possible outcomes doesn't mean 50/50.
    "oh well, let us stick to science. let them have their beliefs and intuitions!" -Medhat Nasr

  12. #51
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    Default Re: Will the coronavirus negatively affect the beekeeping industry?

    Quote Originally Posted by Michael Palmer View Post
    Already is effecting our industry. Vermont first eliminated nuc sales to hobby beekeepers. Not an essential business. Then they changed to no more than 10 customers on the farm at one time...but now they say no nuc sales to out of state beekeepers. We'll see
    +1 Has to have an effect, picking up NUCs and Packages will be harder/impacted by travel bans. So less bee sales for the folks who sell bees. However this may offer more local production. Smaller operators selling 3 or 4 splits, to cover the loss from traveled in product. Less bees may mean lees equipment from suppliers. May also mean less honey in the fall.
    May have some price increases for Honey, if you have it. Potentially all to be unwound next year.

    I traveled to a distant Apiary last weekend, worried about being stopped for the trip, may super early and just leave them Be. If the lock down gets tighter, Apairy visits may get reduced.

    And dead people buy way less honey than the live ones, Older folks are some of my best customers. Youngsters buy the fake honey at walmart as they are looking at Price, not quality. Those that do the Bee classes are going to be impacted, may need to move online.

    I do expect impact, I may preemptive do "bees" this year with more splits and less honey, make a bigger crop next year, my quarantine time can be spent in the shop building hives,, who knows, what the incremental impact this summer will be, None is an Incomplete analysis IMO.
    GG

  13. #52
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    Default Re: Will the coronavirus negatively affect the beekeeping industry?

    Quote Originally Posted by Michael Palmer View Post
    Already is effecting our industry. Vermont first eliminated nuc sales to hobby beekeepers. Not an essential business. Then they changed to no more than 10 customers on the farm at one time...but now they say no nuc sales to out of state beekeepers. We'll see
    How is beekeeping not an essential business, but Dunkin doughnuts is an essential business?

    A strong hive can produce, what, 80lbs of honey -for free?

    The government has failed us - we're really on our own at this point.

  14. #53
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    Default Re: Will the coronavirus negatively affect the beekeeping industry?

    so our local FB beekeeper page has a discussion on selling nucs. here is the current decree, I pointed out no where in this law does it say you can sell bees in NY. what say ye legal experts

    On March 20, 2020, Governor Cuomo signed the “PAUSE” Executive Order, a 10-point policy to assure uniform safety for everyone. It includes a new directive that all non-essential businesses statewide must close in-office personnel functions effective at 8PM on March 22, 2020. Essential businesses are exempt from this guidance.

    Agriculture/farms has been designated as an “Essential Business” for purposes of Executive Order 202.6/PAUSE Executive Order. As outlined in Agriculture and Markets Law Article 25-AA Section 301, beekeeping is a key component of agriculture and New York State farms. As such, beekeeping operations are considered an essential business, including the:
    • Production, movement, maintenance, of bees, bee related equipment, honey and honey products.
    • Transportation necessary to meet any of the above functions.

    Joan L. Mahoney
    State Apiculturist
    Field Operations Manager
    Division of Plant Industry
    NYS Department of Agriculture and Markets
    320 Merrick Road, Amityville, NY 11701
    (631) 831-8136 [log in to unmask]
    http://www.agriculture.ny.gov
    mike syracuse ny
    Whatever you subsidize you get more of. Ronald Reagan

  15. #54
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    Default Re: Will the coronavirus negatively affect the beekeeping industry?

    Before the Corona Virus came along I had already decided to not sell any bees this Spring. The people that would have bought them typically come from the part of our state with the highest concentrations of cases.
    I told a previous customer I would sell him two nucs dependent upon whether new cases were going up or down.

    The flu is caused by the Influenza virus.

    The common cold is caused by one of the common Coronaviruses.

    The illness caused by Covid-19 is known as a Novel(new) Coronavirus.

    Calling Covid-19 a mild type of flu is to minimize the danger. Covid-19 is a highly infectious and more deadly type of cold because it is Novel (new) and humans have no immunity to it.

    How can one avoid death by automobile, stay home.
    How can one avoid death by alcohol poisoning, don't drink, etc.
    Hunger and cancer are the only things on the list that cannot be eliminated or reduced by staying home.

    As a diabetic, I am reasonably sure I can go on living and beekeeping for many years as long as I have access to medications and take responsibility for my personal health. If I contract Covid-19 and die from complications, how should that be counted?

    The problem is, no one knows what could happen. If this gets contained the naysayers will complain that the economy was destroyed for no good reason. If we all go back to business as usual tomorrow and 4 million or many more Americans die, the same naysayers will say how could our Gov. let this happen. Heads must roll. The problem our leaders face is that no one can say what would have happened had these controls not been put into place.
    I read yesterday, that people in S. Korea that have recovered are now testing positive. I don't know what that portends.

    People with degrees and forty years experience in economics are notoriously wrong at predicting the future. If 50 million people die what will that do to the economy? All I can say with any degree of certainty is if I die there will be one less honey vendor.

    Doctors and Nurses work with death as a part of their almost daily routine. When I read about how they are succumbing to this virus, yet still going to work it should make us all take pause. How long can we reasonably expect them to put us before themselves and their families? I think we are closer to the edge than many of us are willing to admit.

    JMHO

    Alex
    Last edited by AHudd; 04-08-2020 at 08:42 AM. Reason: clarity
    Ten years of Beekeeping before varroa. Started again spring of 2014.

  16. #55
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    Default Re: Will the coronavirus negatively affect the beekeeping industry?

    Quote Originally Posted by username00101 View Post

    The government has failed us - we're really on our own at this point.
    That mentality is the UNDERLYING ISSUE!!! You were always "on your own" or better put "responsible for your own well being". If you're relying on gov to save you just remember these are the people that brought us gems like the DMV and the post office... Stop looking toward the gov wondering how it can help you more and start asking "why do i need them to do this in the first place" (i'll give you a hint you don't!).

  17. #56
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    We make a little over half our yearly income selling honey and value-added bee related products at farmers markets, trade shows, and a few music festivals. Some of the festivals have already canceled, the farmers markets would be starting in 24 days. It is going to negatively impact my operation. I’d also like to have John Prine back but what are you going to do.
    Justin

  18. #57
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    Default Re: Will the coronavirus negatively affect the beekeeping industry?

    Quote Originally Posted by little_john View Post
    I don't really understand the appeal of statistics.
    It's more than the appeal of stats that you apparently don't understand.
    Saying it's a 50/50 chance that you will die of something is the same, mathematically, as saying that the death rate of the thing is 50%.
    8 years, 30 colonies, no chemical treatments

  19. #58
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    Default Re: Will the coronavirus negatively affect the beekeeping industry?

    http://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf This is a good link if you want to get an indicator of where the economy is heading. No histrionics just the cold hard facts. Here is an excerpt. Note; Barrels equal 44 Gallons.

    Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 18.3 million barrels a day, down by 10.7% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 7.6 million barrels a day, down by 19.2% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.9 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down by 7.9% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was down 22.0% compared with the same four-week period last year.

    Alex
    Ten years of Beekeeping before varroa. Started again spring of 2014.

  20. #59
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    Default Re: Will the coronavirus negatively affect the beekeeping industry?

    Quote Originally Posted by wildbranch2007 View Post
    so our local FB beekeeper page has a discussion on selling nucs. here is the current decree, I pointed out no where in this law does it say you can sell bees in NY. what say ye legal experts
    what does the law say about buying and selling seeds/fertilizer for farming?

  21. #60
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    Default Re: Will the coronavirus negatively affect the beekeeping industry?

    Quote Originally Posted by Michael Palmer View Post
    Already is effecting our industry. Vermont first eliminated nuc sales to hobby beekeepers. Not an essential business. Then they changed to no more than 10 customers on the farm at one time...but now they say no nuc sales to out of state beekeepers. We'll see
    What about packages?

    I am hoping Colorado does not do anything. One of the large package suppliers is already planning on doing a drive thru package pickup.

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