Penn State "COMB" project posts Dec 2019 update - Page 4
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  1. #61
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    Default Re: Penn State "COMB" project posts Dec 2019 update

    I love the discussion of so many heavyweights in the ring. This thread is a fun read, and it reminds of something my dad once said.

    "I went to see a fight and a hockey match broke out!"

    From a retired poker player's ("Know when to walk away, know when to run..") viewpoint, somewhat versed in statistics, genetics, lower division mathematics (3rd semester calculus completed, differential calculus started but not completed, although I tutored that, physics, chemistry, and many other subjects for 15+ years) my bets are that mite mauling is the single best trait to promote. Add a brood break - they usually survive. Add allogrooming - they usually survive. Delve deeply into the WHY of heavy honey production and analyzing one's own methods, and you are probably breeding bees that serve your purposes.

    CHANGE YOUR METHODS TO 5.1 mm CELL SIZE COMBINED WITH NARROW (1.240 INCH WIDE) FRAMES to take better advantage of the main Spring nectar / pollen flow, and you likely one of the bigger beekeepers in the neighborhood.

    Until any of us can prove we are right and that God does or does not exist, we may cite some bitchin' studies, but we are, like it or not, are a bunch of agnostics. All I have are opinions, backed up with 17% more turbo charged loadabunk than JWC, msl, Bigfoot, or Oldtimer, so there!

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  3. #62
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    Default Re: Penn State "COMB" project posts Dec 2019 update

    LOL
    About the only worth wile thing so far in this study is was (at lest for me) the final death nail in small cell as a mite fighting measure... but it is of note the SC hives made more honey per hive
    adaquitily tested on a large enough scale with enough hives

    my bets are that mite mauling is the single best trait to promote. Add a brood break - they usually survive. Add allogrooming - they usually survive.
    As exciting as it is... MB/MM bees have the limitation of like many TX only going after photic mites, the mites could counter with a shorter period, there are TF groups that claim this has already happened in response to chemical treatments, but I haven't seen any real data.....doses make you wonder about the people saying they need 20 OAVs a year thow.....


    You view the responses as calm & metered, and from my view they scream passive aggressiveness.
    and another might view my post as thinly veiled sarcasm...
    the bigest issue with coumputer screesn is you view it with your own reflection in the back ground
    Last edited by msl; 12-11-2019 at 09:57 PM.

  4. #63
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    Default Re: Penn State "COMB" project posts Dec 2019 update

    Quote Originally Posted by Oldtimer View Post
    The The maths doesn't work. If his losses were truly 5 or 10 percent, his hive numbers would have grown exponentially.
    Oldtimer, I wonder if he was selling bees? But I don’t dispute your point. More bees die if you don’t treat than do if you treat wisely. But after several generations without treatment, the surviving bees’ resistance and tolerance of mites improves. Shorter pupation periods reduce the adverse effects of mites. I doubt that smaller cell sizes help. I agree that mite mauling traits help. It’s all very interesting. Living in an area with a strong feral population and relatively little migratory colonies affects my outlook. What we see affects what we say.
    David Matlock

  5. #64
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    Default Re: Penn State "COMB" project posts Dec 2019 update

    What I understand is that over the years he has sold a handful of nucs, my personal belief is this has been so he can say he is selling bees, and thereby fudge losses. I also know that for extended periods of time he has told anyone who inquires that he is not selling bees at the moment.
    "Every viewpoint, is a view from a point." - Solomon Parker

  6. #65
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    Default Re: Penn State "COMB" project posts Dec 2019 update

    Quote Originally Posted by Oldtimer View Post
    What I understand is that over the years he has sold a handful of nucs, my personal belief is this has been so he can say he is selling bees, and thereby fudge losses. I also know that for extended periods of time he has told anyone who inquires that he is not selling bees at the moment.
    I made a rare foray into the tf Facebook page recently and tried to digest Mr. “view from a points” statistical argument that there is almost no statistical evidence that treatments reduce losses. It made me remember the ole “there are liars, damned liars and statisticians” joke. The whole issue of losses is so I’ll defined that I’ve boycotted the surveys in recent years. I’m not at all annoyed by folks honestly practicing tf beekeeping as it may well lead to some genetic advancements. I’m only annoyed at those who are opaque about the realities of what they are doing. In addition I feel that many fail to accept the realities we commercials encounter trying to scale up and make a living doing what they do.
    But, hey, that’s just my view from my point. ��
    "People will generally accept facts as truth only if the facts agree with what they already believe."- Andy Rooney

  7. #66
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    Default Re: Penn State "COMB" project posts Dec 2019 update

    Quote Originally Posted by Fusion_power View Post
    It is almost funny to read threads like this one and see the interplay between different philosophies. JWC started the thread as a way to pooh-pooh treatment free methods. Posts then accumulate dissecting the methods used in the referenced study. JWC comes back complaining about lack of proof that TF works or can ever work. Claims beget counterclaims and in the end nobody learns anything new. Sometimes it is not worth the time expended reading and responding.


    My experience with not treating bees is that sometimes it is better to treat. That said, I have not treated my bees in 15 years and they are clearly expressing mite resistance traits in some colonies. The trope about pesticides being a major problem for beekeepers and particularly that wax contaminated with pesticides causes issues is IMO the second largest threat beekeeping faces today.
    Relating to the Pesticide issue. So This is my opinion, there I do not now need to look this up for everyone. Some pesticides are in the seed and ground these end up in pollen and nectar. there are many studies about this to look for. Wax is very able to absorb these chems. From many sources, and my opinion, these Chems are affecting the hormones and Pheromone production of Queens. this is contributing to "poorer" health of queens (early failure) and shorter lifespan of bees. this subtle chem exposure then has bees "less than optimal" in health. like previously mentioned with Pneumonia, the bees with poor health are more susceptible to the virus vectored by mites. I have had several Apiary sites, I know for a fact in my Queen raising that certain times of the summer and in certain places I have poor success and in others I have good success. Using empiric evidence and observations. My best results in queen rearing come from Yards with little or no crop land or golf courses, or places where wal mart shoppers dump chems on their yards to beautify them. Some of these TF "places" are likely more healthy for the bees at the habitat level. this is how I understand some of the Moving TF bees and they are TF no more issues, or How some Keepers can be TF and some cannot. I have said before I think Apiary selection for sites is important. Early queen failure of My raised Queens is another bad mark for a yard. Michael mention the 8000 Acres as a issue not necessary repeatable, I concur with that. IF Mites are a Symptom then all of this repeat-ability, and different results, seem to make sense. I agree that no one thing will be the cure all, but with TF and non TF are we not focusing on one thing. An interesting study to me would be to sample all the pollen and nectar from places where TF "works" and then sample all the pollen and Nectar from places where TF does not work. I am of the belief the habitat differences relating to what chems are used or not used is a bigger piece to the puzzle than the genetics. I also believe there are "places" where treatment of the sick bees is the only way to have bees on that site. At this point my places to not keep my bees are near Orchards, large corn or soy raising farms, lakes where the association treats the water, Golf Course within 4 miles. counties that spray ditches. This is not that hard to grasp. Chems go in the soil, seed or on plants, the plants pick "some" of it or its by products up . the pollen and nectar have it . carried to the hive , feed to brood and bees. Weak bees , Mites, treatment needed. Related,, many of the problems for Man can be reduced or eliminated by proper , and clean diet. find or create an 8000 acre chem reduced or chem free environment, for your bees. many of the problems will decrease. so the idea that every yard or back yard is equal to me is not accepting reality. Instead laying blame at the back yard keepers feet some blame needs to go the neighbors who "need" the perfect lawn, or the communities that spray for mosquito or the need for blemish free fruit. Most of the so called studies almost ignore the environment. So I take them with a grain of Glyphosate.
    GG

  8. #67
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    Default Re: Penn State "COMB" project posts Dec 2019 update

    >But the point was made by JWC that in relation to the study, the effect of any possible insecticides is factored in. By virtue that all hives are exposed in equal measure.

    I did not say anything contrary to that. I was agreeing that pesticides are what I consider my biggest problem in beekeeping. Unfortunately pesticide issues are hard to avoid and inconsistent in effect depending on what is blooming at the time. Especially when the soybeans are blooming and they decide to spray them for aphids. Otherwise with round-up ready soybeans there is nothing else blooming in those fields.
    Michael Bush bushfarms.com/bees.htm "Everything works if you let it." ThePracticalBeekeeper.com 42y 40h 39yTF

  9. #68
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    Default Re: Penn State "COMB" project posts Dec 2019 update

    I don't know if folks are being willfully dense.

    The strength of a replicated side-by-side experimental design is that it "controls" for all the hypothesized influences.

    A replicate is 12 hives managed under three philosophies (4 colonies each). The design was replicated at the home yards of participating beekeepers from one end to the other of eastern Pennsylvania (and nearby states).

    This controls for environmental impacts from "pesticides" as all the hives in a replicate are foraging on the same territory. Wax contamination was given special consideration (and the TF hives were given special "pure wax" imported from Lusby hives in Arizona.

    The public has not been apprised of the coefficient of variation among the many replicates (ie the diverse home yards). That would be interesting information, as will a "repeated measures" analysis -- do individual replicates behave over time in the same manner or differently.

    One can blather all one desires about how "this or that influence" is more important, however, by running side by side trials and replicating in multiple independent settings, you are controlling for that. It is inconsequential to the study design.

    The message board format seems designed for the few lonely folks still active to ignore the content, and get up on their hobby horse about their particular obsession.

  10. #69
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    Default Re: Penn State "COMB" project posts Dec 2019 update

    >I don't know if folks are being willfully dense.

    Are you being willfully dense? I didn't see ANYONE claiming, and I certainly am not claiming, that pesticides skewed any results in this study. I am just saying it's my biggest beekeeping problem.
    Michael Bush bushfarms.com/bees.htm "Everything works if you let it." ThePracticalBeekeeper.com 42y 40h 39yTF

  11. #70
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    Default Re: Penn State "COMB" project posts Dec 2019 update

    So you will conclude that TF hives died in abundance in 2018-2019, and mite counts in the remaining TF hives are "high" in the autumn of 2019, while treated hives had low overwinter mortality and low Autumn 2019 mite counts.

  12. #71
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    Default Re: Penn State "COMB" project posts Dec 2019 update

    The message board format seems designed for the few lonely folks still active to ignore the content, and get up on their hobby horse about their particular obsession.

    ???Not sure here,,JWC are you offering you are lonely and have a hobby horse, or attempting to add personal insult by calling this trait on the folks who disagree with you here. I am Ok with , discussion, opinion, observation, showing results of studies, and such. Not sure of the need to impune others. This is still a free country, I believe we all have the right to state what we think or believe. Stopping the free speech, is the first step down the trail to fascism, Bullying others to agree with you is not really going to be effective. I am confident you feel you are right, but I feel you are resistant to allow others that same belief. My personal experience with bees,, very little is inconsequential. How many folks here on this forum have 1/3 of their hives TF. 1/3 Organic treated, and 1/3 Chem treatment?? my quess almost zero, so this test is somewhat a new/unique setup that may have new features, and likely could, favor one of the 1/3s. I can appreciate being committed to a philosophy, I do not think denigrating folks for their belief is warranted.

  13. #72
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    Default Re: Penn State "COMB" project posts Dec 2019 update

    I ran a paired TF vs Treated apiary test for many years (2002-2018). Collapse in the TF portion was 60-80% year after year. The Treated portion hovered around 20%. (One wiggle feature, I took TF colonies off the test and attempted to recover them in later years).

    This same 60-80% mortality has been reported on many (non-paired) tests of TF. Yes, you can outrun TF mortality if you make many young hives, capture urban swarms, or are gifted packages and queens.

  14. #73
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    Default Re: Penn State "COMB" project posts Dec 2019 update

    Quote Originally Posted by Michael Bush View Post
    >But the point was made by JWC that in relation to the study, the effect of any possible insecticides is factored in. By virtue that all hives are exposed in equal measure.

    I did not say anything contrary to that. I was agreeing that pesticides are what I consider my biggest problem in beekeeping. Unfortunately pesticide issues are hard to avoid and inconsistent in effect depending on what is blooming at the time. Especially when the soybeans are blooming and they decide to spray them for aphids. Otherwise with round-up ready soybeans there is nothing else blooming in those fields.
    Michael, right for that site the pesticides are Equal, However what if all sites in this study had some contamination, and the contamination is the "cause" and the Mites are the "symptom". I may be suggesting that TF works best in a pure clean environment, but how many places still are like that. I may also be suggesting that some places today will need "treatment" until the Chems we use are changed, or washed out of the system. I am not sure, but studies are good and insightful, and we should do more. trying to set in stone from the results of a study the best way is potentially omitting some very useful data, yet to be understood.
    GG

  15. #74
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    Default Re: Penn State "COMB" project posts Dec 2019 update

    ok thanks , good information.
    your site in this slice of time worked best Treated, would you concur?
    IMO other sites and other time slices may or may not behave the same.
    GG

  16. #75
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    Default Re: Penn State "COMB" project posts Dec 2019 update

    Yes, my paired experiment used two apiaries on the same mountain about a mile apart. I reversed the apiaries from time to time to avoided a "particular" site effect. Reversing the apiaries did not change the outcome. I used paired apiaries rather than side-by-side, as I view apiaries as super-organisms and sickness will spread. (One of the reasons, other than the cost of the econmic loss, that I attempted to "recover" mite sickened hives in the later years).

    I have no idea how real the "triumphalist" accounts from around the country are. In my own personal experience in California, most of the "TF" apiaries I visited were "varroa bombs" by young beeks in "denial" or deliberately misleading by folks attempting to sell a "branding". If you make up your apiary from "rescues", and overflow all available boxes by mid -summer, the numbers of colonies that die every winter doesn't matter, and no one actually knows the outcome.

    The farther up the "guru selling inspirational talks to gullible newbee" ladder you climb, the more "atmospheric", vague, and completely absent" any verifiable information becomes. In the absence of any numbers, we are left with the COMB reports where a "Bush-light" protocol was implemented. These are the numbers we have.

  17. #76
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    Default Re: Penn State "COMB" project posts Dec 2019 update

    Quote Originally Posted by JWChesnut View Post
    Yes, my paired experiment used two apiaries on the same mountain about a mile apart. I reversed the apiaries from time to time to avoided a "particular" site effect. Reversing the apiaries did not change the outcome. I used paired apiaries rather than side-by-side, as I view apiaries as super-organisms and sickness will spread. (One of the reasons, other than the cost of the econmic loss, that I attempted to "recover" mite sickened hives in the later years).

    I have no idea how real the "triumphalist" accounts from around the country are. In my own personal experience in California, most of the "TF" apiaries I visited were "varroa bombs" by young beeks in "denial" or deliberately misleading by folks attempting to sell a "branding". If you make up your apiary from "rescues", and overflow all available boxes by mid -summer, the numbers of colonies that die every winter doesn't matter, and no one actually knows the outcome.

    The farther up the "guru selling inspirational talks to gullible newbee" ladder you climb, the more "atmospheric", vague, and completely absent" any verifiable information becomes. In the absence of any numbers, we are left with the COMB reports where a "Bush-light" protocol was implemented. These are the numbers we have.
    Ok JWChesnut, In California, would you not agree with all the Almonds and other crops, needing pollination out there and the 1.4 million or however many hives are trucked in to the state every year, every bee ailment know to bees is present there? So in this environment you may only be able to make it by treating. And further more if you tried TF and it did not work, then for your place Treatment is necessary. I agree and would do the same. But consider the lonely valley in Utah or Colorado where no one farms or lives. No Roads, no pollution. bees may or may not need treating there. The best way in that location is perhaps different. Time slice matters,, in the 80s and 90s I did not treat and had low losses. I hope by 2050 we are there again. I have TF yards in low population places that do ok, for me that is < 25% loss per year . I also have some in my back yard that likely would be wiped out in 3 years as TF. So IMO Place is a factor. I think each person needs to do what they have to to maintain the Apairy with in the confine of the law. I am somewhat jealous of those who can "not treat". IMO environment has as much to do as Genetics . If you move TF bees to your yard and they "need" treatment then I see that a proof that Genes are less important then location. I do not see it as TF does not work. IMO the reason we do not have places to buy TF queens yet is they ship a few that suddenly loose the TF ability and that line never really gets traction. To Me this is a wake up call for the environment, Canary in the coal mine effect. I see this as "Some places cannot support Honey Bees with out treatment" I.E. the bees are weak/sick in that location. Also Agree on the selling food chain, unfortunately Money still has the influence in how things progress. I no longer spray my lawn, my fruit trees, my food plots, my Garden. When the masses wake up, this will either be fixed or too late.
    GG

  18. #77
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    Default Re: Penn State "COMB" project posts Dec 2019 update

    My history. I started with one nuc in April, in late July I had lots of mite and DWVirus, I treated. The next spring my colony swarmed, I caught it, now I have two colonies. July comes, I see some DWV and quite a few mites and I treat. The next spring my colonies swarmed, now I have four colonies. I saw very few mites, but one of the new colonies needed treating, and I treated it. The next spring two swarmed, I kept one and gave one away, I now have five colonies. I saw very few mites, and sometimes I would go two or three weeks and hardly see any, I didn't treat. The next spring(2019) Two of my hives swarmed, I gave one away and sold one. I was seeing very few mites and I haven't needed to treat those five hives. June 9, 2019 I received a New World Carniolan queen, split one of my hives and introduced this queen into the split. As the year went on I was seeing an increasing number of mites in the nwc split, and by late August they had filled one 10-frame deep(not great). By the end of October I was seeing DWV and 20-30 mites a week, I treated. My original bees came from a second generation beekeeper who told me that they had introduced every type of new queen that came along, and selected for honey, health, and gentleness in that order. I believe the bees themselves are the answer, the few mites that I find in my original colonies are missing legs, and when I inspect them they just appear to be lifeless hulls. The mites I inspected from the nwc colony had their legs, and many were alive. The mites I inspect come from pans in an enclosed,screened bottom board with diatomaceous earth. Not treatment free, just don't need to treat.

  19. #78
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    Default Re: Penn State "COMB" project posts Dec 2019 update

    Quote Originally Posted by unstunghero View Post
    My history. I started with one nuc in April, in late July I had lots of mite and DWVirus, I treated. The next spring my colony swarmed, I caught it, now I have two colonies. July comes, I see some DWV and quite a few mites and I treat. The next spring my colonies swarmed, now I have four colonies. I saw very few mites, but one of the new colonies needed treating, and I treated it. The next spring two swarmed, I kept one and gave one away, I now have five colonies. I saw very few mites, and sometimes I would go two or three weeks and hardly see any, I didn't treat. The next spring(2019) Two of my hives swarmed, I gave one away and sold one. I was seeing very few mites and I haven't needed to treat those five hives. June 9, 2019 I received a New World Carniolan queen, split one of my hives and introduced this queen into the split. As the year went on I was seeing an increasing number of mites in the nwc split, and by late August they had filled one 10-frame deep(not great). By the end of October I was seeing DWV and 20-30 mites a week, I treated. My original bees came from a second generation beekeeper who told me that they had introduced every type of new queen that came along, and selected for honey, health, and gentleness in that order. I believe the bees themselves are the answer, the few mites that I find in my original colonies are missing legs, and when I inspect them they just appear to be lifeless hulls. The mites I inspected from the nwc colony had their legs, and many were alive. The mites I inspect come from pans in an enclosed,screened bottom board with diatomaceous earth. Not treatment free, just don't need to treat.
    Interesting history Unstunghero, sounds like the source for your bees, was a diverse population. Are you still close in proximity to the place you got the first hive from? Are you aware of any other local stock? your new queens must be mating with drones with the characteristics you need. If it is working I am not sure I would "bring in" other bees/Queens, I am thinking of "if it broke don't fix it" Sounds like you have an angle , good luck
    GG

  20. #79
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    Default Re: Penn State "COMB" project posts Dec 2019 update

    Fusion Power - good citation of a paper. How do we get a copy?

    Grey Goose. I agree with your cite selection criteria. You have identified the sources of trouble.

    We are actually looking at 2-4d as being a major component of our problems. Look for a paper by Howard L. Morton and Joseph O. Moffett from the ARS USDA Tucson "Ovicidal and Larvicidal Effects of certain herbicides on Honeybees"

    It appears to me that Ag chemicals build up to significant levels in less than half a year, and that a spring chemical synergizes with a fall chemical. New Comb in the spring must be changed out by winter. The bees sense of smell seems to be the first thing effected. I would imagine that if bees need to smell a mite before they can remove it, a poor sense of smell from pesticides would reduce their ability deal with mites. Cause and effect.

    Crazy Roland

  21. #80
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    Default Re: Penn State "COMB" project posts Dec 2019 update

    Quote Originally Posted by Roland View Post
    I would imagine that if bees need to smell a mite before they can remove it, a poor sense of smell from pesticides would reduce their ability deal with mites. Cause and effect. Crazy Roland
    Makes me think of the utube with the bees virtually pouncing on the mite. Never clear if that was a mite from a different hive or the host hive.

    A guard bee lets in a loaded forager, not a robber. Some interesting stuff in the difference between the reactions.
    It is hard to design a safety net that some will not use as a hammock.

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