I feel somewhere around #1 is more likely.
This is because the top bars (I think I can see the top bars) suggest the direction of the entrance if set the cold way (probably is).
On this picture, the newest comb is being built the furthest from the entrance (the newest comb is clearly visible in the opposite end of the proposed entrances).
The oldest combs would be reasonably close to the entrance (NOT the longest, I would disagree, LJ, that the longest is build first - that's my swarm trapping experience talking).
They start by the entrance and progress in-wards.
The second or third comb from the entrances is the probably the oldest (not the first though).
Assuming the swarm was reasonably large, they would start a reasonably large comb first, hence the second or the third.
Now, IF the swarm was tiny, than the first comb right in the corner could be the first to build (due to the limited workforce).
All in all, this is a great demo of how misguided the ideas of either cold or warm entrance ways are.
The bees will chose neither if they only can.