Are the good times about over with?
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  1. #1
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    Default Are the good times about over with?

    1. Honey prices. ?
    2. Reports of bees crashing like in 05-07 ?
    3. Almond prices to the growers at harvest in August 2015 as high as $4.90 a pound. By January 2016 they are heading like the rest of the world commodities falling to $2.20-2.40 per pound on the spot market.

    If they continue to hover around $2.00 will the $180-$200 pollination fees be sustainable?

    Time to tighten belts before ?

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  3. #2
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    Default Re: Are the good times about over with?

    Just with like everything big ag... when it's good everyone jumps on the bandwagon til prices plummet then they all scratch their heads and can't figure out what went wrong....

  4. #3
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    Default Re: Are the good times about over with?

    Capitalism in action!

  5. #4
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    Default Re: Are the good times about over with?

    Quote Originally Posted by jfmcree View Post
    Capitalism in action!
    Would you prefer the alternative?

  6. #5
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    Default Re: Are the good times about over with?

    Quote Originally Posted by Tenbears View Post
    Would you prefer the alternative?
    That depends. What is the alternative?

  7. #6
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    Default Re: Are the good times about over with?


  8. #7
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    Default Re: Are the good times about over with?

    Commodity prices have always been cyclical and currently it's pretty much all commodities. The wise beekeeper didn't get heavily leveraged and plow every nickel back into their outfit. The gloomy theme of Phil's post reminded me of a colorful and sage old gentleman in my hometown who like to say that "it's always darkest.....just before it goes completely black". . Come on folks, don't worry, be happy.
    "People will generally accept facts as truth only if the facts agree with what they already believe."- Andy Rooney

  9. #8
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    Default Re: Are the good times about over with?

    Quote Originally Posted by jim lyon View Post
    Commodity prices have always been cyclical and currently it's pretty much all commodities.
    Yeah, I'm really waiting for sugar to slip, but it hasn't happen yet.
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  10. #9
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    Default Re: Are the good times about over with?

    Quote Originally Posted by Keith Jarrett View Post
    Yeah, I'm really waiting for sugar to slip, but it hasn't happen yet.
    Isn't that one of the ones that has pricing controls in place in the US?

  11. #10
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    Default Re: Are the good times about over with?

    as beekeepers we were able to get by before the almond boom. I have expected markets to slip with todays world economy. the medium size beekeeper may be better off as they are less dependent on almonds and not having to wholesale their crop, lower overhead,etc. the family business can find niche markets such as marketing, selling nucs, cut comb, etc. as said times may be changing. try to remain flexible.

  12. #11
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    Default Re: Are the good times about over with?

    Quote Originally Posted by Keith Jarrett View Post
    Yeah, I'm really waiting for sugar to slip, but it hasn't happen yet.
    Checked corn syrup prices lately? On a weaker corn market, they all (all 3 of them) went up lockstep from .21 to .27 at the first of the year, how is that not collusion?
    "People will generally accept facts as truth only if the facts agree with what they already believe."- Andy Rooney

  13. #12
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    Default Re: Are the good times about over with?

    Quote Originally Posted by jim lyon View Post
    Commodity prices have always been cyclical and currently it's pretty much all commodities. The wise beekeeper didn't get heavily leveraged and plow every nickel back into their outfit. The gloomy theme of Phil's post reminded me of a colorful and sage old gentleman in my hometown who like to say that "it's always darkest.....just before it goes completely black". . Come on folks, don't worry, be happy.
    Amen. You can always find doom and gloom. It flows like honey in a hot house. Good news? Flows like honey from a freezer. Many like to look at the past as the best times. Invariably because they know how it turned out.
    Ninja, is not in the dictionary. Well played Ninja's, well played...

  14. #13
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    Default Re: Are the good times about over with?

    I do not think you can blame this problem on capitalism, which is a word coined by Karl Marx if I remember correctly. I prefer the term free markets if you can find them. We now have mostly Govt controlled free markets which is an oxymoron because once controlled is no longer free. So we have come out of a great recession world wide and have gone into a great depression world wide with not enough money in the world to pay Govs debts. So I think we are tending into a deflationary cycle as their is less and less money chasing more and more products, so I think we will be going into survival mode just now and where we could end up nobody knows. IMHO just to brighten your day.
    Johno

  15. #14
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    Default Re: Are the good times about over with?

    Like I always say, these are the good times, we just don't know it yet.
    www.facebook.com/hives2honey Oxalic Vaporizers, supplement and more!!!!!! Check me out.

  16. #15
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    Default Re: Are the good times about over with?

    What goes up must come down. Three years ago no one would have guessed that oil would be selling for less than $30.00 a barrel in 2016. So honey is down now, and that's fine, but like oil it keeps as long as you have a place to store it. The price will creep back up, it won't stay down forever.

  17. #16
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    Default Re: Are the good times about over with?

    The gist of my post was not to preach doom and gloom and the imminent and complete end of the "bee world." Anyone here would be hard pressed to find any one pro B than myself.

    Anyone who has paid attention in history class should certainly have observe that everything is cyclical. This obviously includes beekeeping.

    My point was that it might be time to tighten near term large investments in the "bee world" as the ROI in the foreseeable future might not be as rosy as the past few years have been.

    I was wondering if anyone else thinks the current bee "cycle" might be on a downward trend at this point in time with very few indicators of a positive turn around any time soon.

    ????

  18. #17
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    Default Re: Are the good times about over with?

    Quote Originally Posted by johno View Post
    I do not think you can blame this problem on capitalism, which is a word coined by Karl Marx if I remember correctly.
    No worries about Karl Marx.

    Adam Smith, born in 1723, almost 100 years before Karl Marx, is credited with being the "founding father" of capitalism. Adam Smith's best known book, "An Inquiry Into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations" was published in 1776.

    More on Adam Smith here: http://www.vision.org/visionmedia/bi...smith/868.aspx
    Graham
    USDA Zone 7A Elevation 1400 ft

  19. #18
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    Default Re: Are the good times about over with?

    Quote Originally Posted by beeware10 View Post
    as beekeepers we were able to get by before the almond boom. I have expected markets to slip with todays world economy. the medium size beekeeper may be better off as they are less dependent on almonds and not having to wholesale their crop, lower overhead,etc. the family business can find niche markets such as marketing, selling nucs, cut comb, etc. as said times may be changing. try to remain flexible.
    Both thumbs up to you!! I agree the bee industry would be somewhat better off without them. It would force some Beeks to
    Actually be beekeepers.

  20. #19
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    Default Re: Are the good times about over with?

    As a person without a dog in this fight growers will continue paying. They cannot go without bees if they want the crop or the crop insurance. We all know it costs real money to keep bees alive and well. With falling honey prices it will be tough to supply good bees with lower incomes. Inputs are not going down.

    Jean-Marc

  21. #20
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    May 2007
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    clayton cal.
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    Default Re: Are the good times about over with?

    slight hiccup in the market--china loves almonds--they are in a period of adjustment-
    embargoes lifted against iran--they love almonds--slight adjustments occur from time to time-
    supply and demand runs the almond market--this has morphed out of unstable international stock
    market--she will ship right--load the wagon and never mind if the horse is blind----RDY-B

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