odfrank...I have about quit trapping,( only have two set for this Spring) ( and I am retiring from selling bees, will likely just keep a dozen or so hives for private honey stock and give aways) but, when I actively trapped bees here are my findings.
The queen will come into the trap most of the time, to either find the queen that layed the eggs in the trap, or, to use the trap as another chamber to lay eggs. If you are wanting the queen it will require checking the trap every few hours after introduction of the unsealed brood. To answer your question....
From trees and tanks etc, where the trap transition can be fitted very near the feral brood nest, during a good honey flow with expanding population and queen looking for places to lay eggs, success rate about 80 to 85 percent.
In walls, buildings etc, more difficult to determine where the brood nest is, and often the trap cannot be placed close enough for the queen to come out to lay or investigate where the brood,(the frame you give them) came from. In these cases, the success rate falls to 35 to 45 percent.
Without a good honey flow, success rate about 35 to 55 percent. The queen may come to investigate the eggs but, if she doesn't find a queen, or need the room to lay, she may just return to her source and you may miss her.
I rarely trapped to get the queen. I prefer to take multiple managed starts from the colony and let the trapped bees either make their own queen, or, introduce a mated queen after removing frames from the trap and relocating the new colony. I used the same feral sources for several starts each year. Now days, gasoline is so expensive, and trapping requiring multiple trips to the trap site, that trapping is not as attractive as it once was, unless the trap site is close and handy for you to work.
Trapping is a lot of fun, and, you learn a lot from it. Sometimes it is necessary when someone wants the bees gone for whatever reason. In that case, try to get the queen, save all the bees, and move from that location.
cchoganjr