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Winter losses vs. Summer gains

180K views 644 replies 60 participants last post by  Oldtimer 
#1 ·
From time to time, there are complaints that there is too much bickering and arguing and people aren't getting to talk about what they want. Well, I can't do anything about that, people are people.

But what I can do and what I like to do is answer questions. So I want to give everybody the free and explicit opportunity to ask serious questions. If you want to be treatment-free, or if you are weighing your options, ask away. I want to help you. I'm not going to be answering challenges or defending my methods or viewpoint. I want to help you if you want to be helped. I want to tell you what you want to know, not what you want to hear. I had tons of questions and many of them will be the same ones you are asking now. You can even go back to 2003 and see them for yourself in the archives.

So ask away. You have my ear.
 
#213 ·
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Treating is not the default mode. It's like fat wooly sheep that can't give birth unassisted and can't climb mountains are not the default mode, therefore they suffer predation, and if left to their own devices would largely die out. The same goes for the bees. However, if one were to keep bees or sheep in a way that allows them to maintain their selected defensive traits, then when they get out, they're not barbecued by the first passing wolf.

It's the age old tension in agriculture between having a productive animal and having a durable animal (or fruit tree or whatever). It is my position that both are possible in the bee, if not the sheep. With the sheep, we want to eat it and for it to make lots of wool. With the bee, we just want it to do what it normally does, only more, more honey, more pollination, more wax. And we'd like it to not sting so much. None of these things necessarily puts limits on its natural survival, where as a fat wooly sheep has lots of problems.

Therefore, the default mode needs to be the goal, that means bees that don't die so rapidly when they swarm, bees that largely survive if the owner has to go to Afghanistan for a couple years. Maybe they swarm without a little extra management, but that again goes to maintain the default mode.
 
#214 ·
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>On the other hand we get told that there is no significant difference in hives survival whether they are treated, or not.

>They cannot both be true.

Of course they can. If EVERYONE would stop treating you could make a dent in the genetic side, but as long as the majority of people are treating and bringing in genetics from other places from bees that are also being treated, they are watering down much of the genetic effect.

“If you’re not part of the genetic solution of breeding mite-tolerant bees, then you’re part of the problem”– Randy Oliver
 
#215 ·
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What would happen if everyone stopped treating has little to do with my original point. Nor does much else that's been said, what I was trying to get at has been missed.

But really, it doesn't matter.

Looks like I kicked the hornets nest LOL :)

I'll leave now. :s
 
#216 ·
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it's a fair question ot. the problem is using an unscientific survey that falls short of representing the universe of managed bees and drawing conclusions from it.

not the the information isn't useful as it may show trends, but to say that there isn't any significant difference in treated vs. untreated is a stretch.

the consideration as to what the differences in management have on the evolution of equilibrium between the parasites and hosts is a different question, and it seems plausible that treating may hinder that process.

the happy medium would appear to be to choose treatments that lessen their impact on that evolution, and treat only those colonies that are very unlikely to survive anyway.

if one chooses to practice the bond method, then it makes sense to euthanize the colony and kill off the parasites before they can be spread to nearby colonies via robbing.
 
#217 ·
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if one chooses to practice the bond method, then it makes sense to euthanize the colony and kill off the parasites before they can be spread to nearby colonies via robbing.
This demonstrates the frame of mind in the treating vs. non-treating (there's gotta be a better word than "debate"). This method would still have the goal of preventing the spread of a parasite when the goal of TFB is bees that deal with the parasite themselves, no matter where they come from or how many are brought home. Traits that could possibly lead to this eventuality are bees that won't rob diseased hives, or refuse to come home if they catch a parasite, or the parasite is removed by guards at the door, or parasite is killed inside the home hive, or parasite is otherwise eliminated in one way or another. None of these traits can be developed if the parasite is eliminated beforehand. That's still remaining in a medical mindset.

I am quite unconcerned with the spread of parasites from dead or dying hives. Helping results in not helping. The goal is not to do the minimum to get hives to survive, the goal is to have the ability do nothing and get hives to survive. Surviving is their job. Management for reasonable production is my job. That's really the core of treatment-free beekeeping and the Bond Method.
 
#218 ·
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i heartily accept every point you make there sol, and this is exactly how it happens in nature, but as i have pointed out before there is nothing natural about putting bees in artificial homes and molesting them on a regular basis. it seems only fair that if we impose these compromises on them then we shouldn't wholeheartedly dismiss intervening in other ways as well.

for you and i who are sideline beekeeping and can afford to do so it's a perfectly valid approach from our point of view, but maybe not so if we are impacting nearby colonies (and perhaps native pollinators) in ways that others may not appreciate.

for me i have decided on no treatments because my bees have not only survived but continue to thrive without them, and they have a sixteen year history of doing so. but out of respect for any unwanted impact i may have beyond my own beeyard i take the precautions i mention above, although it's very infrequent that i have to do so.
 
#222 ·
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i heartily accept every point you make there sol, and this is exactly how it happens in nature, but as i have pointed out before there is nothing natural about putting bees in artificial homes and molesting them on a regular basis. it seems only fair that if we impose these compromises on them then we shouldn't wholeheartedly dismiss intervening in other ways as well.
The part I have to push back on is the idea that it is fair to make the problem worse because we caused the problem to begin with. Firstly, there's no such thing as fair, but that's a philosophical argument for another forum. My case is that it isn't fair anyway to help bees with disease because it actually hinders them in getting along with the progression of their species. It's like "sorry we shot all your buffalo and evicted you from your land, here's some blankets." Not really.

What a skilled beekeeper does doesn't cause all that much of a problem. I personally frown upon molestation. :no: What I do doesn't cause problems (or I'd have a much higher mortality rate). What does cause major problems that I see is not changing the shape of their home or moving their combs around, it's moving the whole hive miles and miles, to a new climate, on a truck with 400 other colonies to be immersed in a pool of colonies more dense than ever could be possible in nature where disease can be spread wholesale. And the people that do that have to treat, because bees will die if they don't. Most of us don't do that, and that's why all my efforts at education are toward hobbyists.

So yes, I wholeheartedly and strenuously dismiss intervening in those other ways, because I'm not compromising them and they should be able to handle it, and they're insects.
 
#219 ·
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Could somebody just answer my question in simple English for my simple mind? What were the percents of loss, treated VS untreated? I do not see untreated on the survey.
 
#223 ·
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Could somebody just answer my question in simple English for my simple mind? What were the percents of loss, treated VS untreated? I do not see untreated on the survey.
What you see is "No non-bee derived products" which equates to treatment-free in the context of this forum. Mean loss for this management philosophy was 33.6%

Those who are willing to "Use anything" to treat their hives had losses of 35.7%. This group contains the vast majority of colonies.

I don't really understand why anyone would think there is a contradiction in these results. Treatment free beekeepers are a small minority of the respondents, and most of them are backyard and sideliner beekeepers. Many of them are beginners, and many of them will have very high losses, due to inexperience and bees that are not adapted. The fact that the loss rate is as low as it is, is a testament to the few successful treatment free beekeepers among them, whose remarkably good results skew the results back to a loss rate similar to the loss rate of the commercial beekeepers. These folks make up the vast majority of treaters, and their sample size is vastly larger and therefore more likely to be accurate.

If you have any understanding of statistics, and of the population being surveyed, these results are extremely encouraging. It means that if you're an above-average treatment-free beekeeper, you can look forward to losses well below the industry average.
 
#221 ·
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Does "No non bee related products" mean "no Treatment"?

Does it show that all methods were in the 30+% loss range? Does that tell us that it is almost worthless to treat? No major decline in losses? Or did the treated hives have a substantially higher percent of survival?
I am old, feeble and uneducated. I can't determine what the graphs mean.
 
#228 ·
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why should it be different with mites? what is so anti-selection about removing the most virulent mites from the mite gene pool (the one's that collapse a colony) while allowing the less virulent ones to coexist?
The problem is that you're not able to do that. Even the most effective treatments do not kill all of the mites. So what you are doing is killing some of the most virulent mites, and leaving resistant mites alive. The next time you treat, the treatment is less effective and more of the most virulent mites survive. You're arming the most virulent mites with additional resistance, and at the same time, damaging the health of the bees. This is a treadmill that will just keep going faster until you can't keep up. As we've seen, acaricides begin to lose their effectiveness fairly rapidly; treatments that worked okay just a few years ago are no longer effective.

I'm a novice beekeeper, but I've been an organic gardener for 50 years, and I've seen this same treadmill play out in agriculture in general.
 
#234 ·
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> are you suggesting that mankind would have been better off not ever having developed antibiotics?

No doubt the human race would be genetically hardier and the microbes would be less virulent if we had never invented antibiotics. So, yes, Mankind would be better off. But you might not be and I might not be. We have a different view of humans. We tend to value each one as an individual (hopefully). We have a different value system for human life.
 
#236 ·
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> are you suggesting that mankind would have been better off not ever having developed antibiotics?

No doubt the human race would be genetically hardier and the microbes would be less virulent if we had never invented antibiotics. So, yes, Mankind would be better off. But you might not be and I might not be. We have a different view of humans. We tend to value each one as an individual (hopefully). We have a different value system for human life.
very well stated michael.
 
#238 ·
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got it sol, and please know that i wasn't trying to 'getcha'. i was just trying to understand your position on whether or not we impose additional stresses on our managed bees (as i believe we do) as compared to their feral cousins.

but as you pointed out even accepting that they are additional stresses imposed by us doesn't necessarily have to compel one to exercise management practices (help with mites ect.) because of it.

this is my first summer to put together five frame nucs for overwintering. we have had an unusally wet summer this year and there has not been the dramatic dearth that i have seen in previous summers. i am concerned that some of them may be too strong and susceptible to swarming on the fall flow.
 
#240 ·
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It makes no sense if you can't grasp that a "group" is more than one person, and don't understand what a "mean" is.

As an example: say you have three beekeepers. Two are clueless beginners like me. they have 5 hives each, and like me have not subjected their hives to selective pressure. They just don't treat. One loses 3 of his hives, the other loses 4. The third beekeeper is a guy with 10 hives who has figured out how to succeed at treatment-free beekeeping, and he has zero losses. What is the mean winter loss of this group of three beekeepers?

You're trying to treat a group as if all members of the group have the same skill level, the same time in process, the same resources, the same environment, the same exact approach... the same results. That's not how it works.
 
#241 ·
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Exactly. And that's why the way these statistics might be presented can be misleading.

This was one of the things I was wanting to bring out but it's been a long time for someone to twig to it & express it.

When talking on the forum about comparative losses, it is more honest to use the raw data. IE, total hives against total hives. Rather than means between groups etc. Not everybody understands that.

So. Is the difference still insignificant?
 
#242 ·
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You all have intellectualized all day and still not answered my question....are there studies showing the percentage of losses treated VS non treated?
 
#244 ·
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Well a man clever enough to "grasp" what a group is and "understand" what a mean is ought to be able to work that out Raldridge, it's a fundamental "understanding" of statistics LOL.

The best ones are not obtained by surveys that are voluntary, rely on what people choose to reveal, appeal to some sectors more than others, and include people with strong opinions and biases.

That's to answer your question. However, for me, I'll go with the survey, it's the best one I'm aware of.
 
#246 ·
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Well a man clever enough to "grasp" what a group is and "understand" what a mean is ought to be able to work that out Raldridge, it's a fundamental "understanding" of statistics LOL.
.
Apparently, the ability to parse a sentence in English is another difficult skill to master, for some people. He asked for a "study." Not a "perfect study."

In my opinion, the weaknesses in this study mean that those who are considering treatment-free beekeeping should be wildly encouraged to give it a try. As I pointed out upthread, the results are skewed by the fact that among the treatment-free group are many hobbyists and newbies, whose predictably poor results have dragged down the stats of the successful treatment free beekeepers among them. On the other hand, those who are willing to treat with any product are more likely to be commercial and sideline beekeepers whose experience should give them an edge over the substantial percentage of smalltimers in the treatment free group. And yet, their experience does not seem to give them better winter survival-- and their much greater hive numbers make their results more statistically meaningful.

odfrank, Google "confidence intervals." Long story short, they denote limits into which some very high percentage of results fall. I don't have the study in front of me, but I think it's 95% in this case. So what they're saying is 95% of the results fall between the lower and upper CIs.

Mean is just a synonym for average.
 
#249 ·
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I know I can't talk English and all, but your statement is incorrect. ;)
Oh for heaven's sake. An arithmetic mean is exactly what most folks think of when they think of "average," a set of numbers added together and divided by the number of numbers. Mathematicians might include mode and median in the umbrella, but since these terms are not what odfrank asked about, and because they have nothing to do with the subject, why bring them up?

For a guy who loves to dish it out, you don't take it very well, do you?
 
#253 ·
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What are Mean, Lower and Upper?
Take 5 numbers that I have picked at random with the intend to demonstrate average and mean.

1, 75,73,72 and 2

The average is adding all 5 numbers and then dividing by 5. this gives us 44.6 as the average.
It is easy to see that the majority of the numbers fall well above the average. The mean would be where the majority fall and in this case it is 73.3. this is the mean.

Average is the total of all individuals divided by the number of individuals.
Mean is the number that the majority are near. It excludes the extreme highs and lows.
 
#247 ·
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Ok well I'll add "can't parse a sentence in English", to "half cocked", and all my other faults and put downs too numerous to mention that have been sent my way in the last couple pages.

Kinda wondering about all these put downs though, am I really that bad? Or, are some people so unable to handle an opinion other than their own, that in the absence of sensible supporting argument, they have to resort to this type of level?
 
#254 ·
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Thank you Daniel. While it is pretty simple it is also surprising how many people don't realise there is a difference between the two.

Also, both have their uses. The example you have given is a good one, because while average may seem the right way to go, if those numbers represented some things, the average could be a distortion of the main group of them, the mean would be a better picture.

Good post also Mike, statistics, and their use, and misuse, are a fascinating topic.
 
#260 ·
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Did anybody ever answer Odfrank?
I find it not worth my time to tailor my answers to the demands of other people. If you don't like the answer you get, ask another question, don't claim nobody answered the first one.
 
#259 ·
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jmho, but i believe the answer to odfrank's question is best answered 'unknown'.

the survey lacks scientific rigor. we could probably come just as close to an answer by conducting a poll here on beesource.

the problem would still be the lack of consistency in methods and disproportion in sample size.

whether treating or not, there will be losses, and it's best to have a contingency for replacing them.

again jmho, but the decision to treat or not at this point remains more of a philosophical one that a scientific one.

i'm not stuck on any particular philosophy, but choose not to treat primarily because my bees are thriving after many years of not being treated and i don't see any reason to interfere with that, plus i feel like it will be a selling point should i start selling nucs and queens in any meaningful way.
 
#262 · (Edited)
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I captured a swarm last week (based on the size of the swarm cluster it is a prime swarm - I'll be checking for eggs later today) and gave it two foundationless frames to draw in addition to eight older drawn combs. Is it too late in the season to expect even a swarm to do much with foundationless frames? Kelley was having their free shipping and I picked up 20 foundationless frames. I finished assembling them this morning, but figure most will get saved for next spring. i have a few nucs that will be getting their 2nd box shortly and I might see what they do with foundationless. They have been comb drawing machines in the past but as we are border line into August I generally try to give them drawn comb at this time of year. Thoughts? I know this is more of a general question than a specifically treatment free question, but the swarm hasn't been treated for anything by me.

Update from this afternoon: grumpy, no eggs, no drawing activity on foundationless frames, hive has "the roar" Though I did see what looked like workers cleaning brood cells.
 
#343 ·
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Andrew, my apologies for not answering your question sooner. With all the hokum going around, I totally missed this post.

Is it too late in the season to expect even a swarm to do much with foundationless frames?

Update from this afternoon: grumpy, no eggs, no drawing activity on foundationless frames, hive has "the roar" Though I did see what looked like workers cleaning brood cells.
I can't speak to the conditions in Coastal Maine, but I would hypothesize that you're not going to get much out of them unless you still have (or will have) substantial flows going on. If they don't have eggs in another few days, they may well be queenless or have a non-laying or virgin queen. Barring other options, let them be. You could give them a frame of open brood to see if they feel like they want to draw some new queen cells. That should give you a good indicator of what's going on. After that, I'd suggest giving them a frame of open brood once a week for the rest of the season. A July swarm is going to need help if you want it to survive the winter.
 
#271 ·
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I thought Odfrank was treatment free? Looses most of them every year, but he's treatment free. He was simply asking a question about the survey.
Odfrank has been keeping bees for over 40 years and never any treatment. He captures more colonies every year than most hobbyist beekeepers have in their apiary so I don't get the harsh treatment either.
 
#265 ·
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I have read this thread start to finish. A couple of times someone kicked the can and stirred up them hornets but even to me that was helpful not pleasant but helpful... I have just started out with this endeavor my goals are simple, to populate this area which seems not to have a lot of bees at all, to be treatment free, and to get a little honey for myself and family, friends and the like. I do not think I'll make a lot of money and so far it has been fairly costly. I started with 3 pkgs (yeah I know but nucs were not available) one absconded and went to the other 2 hives and never found the queen. Those 2 hives are going gangbusters so I got a carni queen locally and made a split, took brood and honey from those 2 and put in the queen, so far so good. My questions, Mr. Parker are, By starting fresh and not treating, do you think I have a better chance of keeping it that way (post 191) and how big is BIG? I can not afford to go too big financially, even building my wooden ware. There don't seem to be feral bees here as none were on my fruit trees this spring ( last year there were quite a lot), so swarm catching is pretty much out. Also (post 151) using / not using SBB. People in the club advocate it year round, in your opinion are they not necessary?

Thanks Walt
 
#266 ·
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By starting fresh and not treating, do you think I have a better chance of keeping it that way (post 191) and how big is BIG?
I think you have a better chance, however, that is predicated upon a great number of variables. With existing hives you have some infrastructure to work with, but you also have contaminated comb. With new hives, you can start fresh, but you won't have quite the fall back that other hives give you. So, I think so, but it's hard to say for certain. It has gone both ways many times, and unfortunately, for those with whom it failed, they often get quite hostile despite extenuating circumstances. I do not recommend foundationless for the beginner, I do recommend small cell for everybody.


I can not afford to go too big financially, even building my wooden ware.
But aren't you a doctor? ;) I understand. That's the reason why I did what I did. I purchased 40 deeps (at some expense even then) and then bought 20 packages (some expense though much more now). Knowing I didn't have enough boxes for 20 hives, I didn't do any increase and instead stacked the boxes from dead hives on living ones until I had 6 hives with 3-5 boxes each and some boxes left over. I also bought some used ones a little cheaper. There are many options, and creativity is often rewarded.


There don't seem to be feral bees here as none were on my fruit trees this spring ( last year there were quite a lot), so swarm catching is pretty much out.
You never know how many fish are in the pond until you toss a hook and a worm in. The worst swarm catching year I ever had was when I got 1 swarm from 11 traps. You really never know, and it's often worth the effort. Again, things are different in different places, so I can't make any guarantees.


Also (post 151) using / not using SBB. People in the club advocate it year round, in your opinion are they not necessary?
Not only do I not believe they are necessary, I don't believe they are helpful, and I don't believe they should be necessary, so I don't use them and haven't for many years. I do keep a couple around for when I am harvesting honey or moving hives for ventilation and keeping robbers out.
 
#269 · (Edited)
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Thank you. I should say, so far anyhow, no mites and no beetles. I think that is more luck than good planning on my part. I'm building a few nuc's to have so I can add to my hives and grow drawn comb. I've gone with 8 frame med's just to keep inventory alike and can swap to and from hives and even nuc's are med just for that reason, I also heard/read somewhere that smaller 8 frames get less beetle problems and possibly less disease problems because of less area for the bees to monitor. Have you any Idea if there is any merit to that? That is all supposing you have a strong populated hive. I'm not nieve enough to think I won't have losses or problems, but hope to have enough stock to overcome it. I don't think just because it's a fad right now to keep bees that if it does happen I'll just throw in the towel, I'll read your blog and all the other info spots to try to educate myself. Thanks for this thread and answering all us aspiring beekeepers questions.

Walt

Not a doctor in the true sense, a dieseldoctor, it's been my "handle" for a lot of years, but certainly not unique lol.
 
#270 · (Edited)
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I also heard/read somewhere that smaller 8 frames get less beetle problems and possibly less disease problems because of less area for the bees to monitor. Have you any Idea if there is any merit to that?
I can't confirm that Walt. I don't like 8-frames because for the size hive, they are too tall. In fact, I built some 14 frame hives that are even shorter. We'll see how they work. My only 8-frame died out just recently after being unable to replace a swarmed queen.


Not a doctor in the true sense, a dieseldoctor, it's been my "handle" for a lot of years, but certainly not unique lol.
I did consider become a diesel mechanic for a while, but decided to go for commercial beekeeping. That didn't end up being what I wanted to do so I fell back on engineering. Now I'm a Civil Engineer, working on water and waste water plants.
 
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