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  1. #61
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    Solano, California, USA
    Posts
    1,380

    Default Re: Time to get nervous # 2

    JW great homework on your part... Were you trained as a research lead investigator or librarian perhaps?

    I do remember that year although I couldn't recall of hand when it was. In early and out quick. If you know of any good links to compare the 03 January weather data to the averages I would love to see them. My gut feeling is that as now we were warmer than average. Anyone want to lay down a bet that the 2014 chart for the nonpariels is going to be a week ahead of the 03 chart. There is no holding back at this point.

    I'm outa here for the evening.... time to check the pump watering the almonds, go to bed, and drop those bees sitting on the truck in the morning before tomorrows version of California January tan time shows up. 78 here today...... 72 tomorrow.

  2. #62
    Join Date
    May 2012
    Location
    Sacramento, CA, USA
    Posts
    2,928

    Default Re: Time to get nervous # 2

    Trees popping on the I-5 corridor already.....

  3. #63
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Morro Bay, California, USA
    Posts
    908

    Default Re: Time to get nervous # 2

    Quote Originally Posted by Honey-4-All View Post
    J
    I do remember that year although I couldn't recall of hand when it was. In early and out quick. .
    California funds a network of agricultural weatherstations called "CIMIS" you can download historic data with your browser. Lots of values (ETo -- or irrigation need is the major economic one).
    http://wwwcimis.water.ca.gov/cimis/welcome.jsp
    ((I work with CIMIS data all the time for my "day job" research -- plant ecology/natural restoration))
    Comparing 2002-03 records with 2013-14 data (and the long term average) for Manteca. Manteca is the site of the experimental Almond Orchard -- also State of Ca funded.

    2003 had fluctuating temperatures at the Max. 2014 has stayed consistently 10-15 degrees above average Max since the cold snap of early December ended.
    As you have noted, the dry air means the night-time low minimums have also been much below normal. Warm days, really cold nights.


  4. #64
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Hamilton, Alabama
    Posts
    1,212

    Default Re: Time to get nervous # 2

    If you read that temperature trend line and correlate it with the 2003 bloom data, full bloom will be reached on early varieties by Feb 3rd. Growers are going to be going bananas trying to get bees moved into the groves in time.
    DarJones - 44 years, 10 colonies (max 40), sideliner, treatment free since 2005, 11 frame broodnest, small cell

  5. #65
    Join Date
    Jun 2003
    Location
    Lakeland FL
    Posts
    848

    Default Re: Time to get nervous # 2

    The ride out there is 3-4 days All the brokers i have talked to do not want the bees till after the 3rd. I talked to the FL inspector yesterday the way she talked is, really hardly any loads have left yet. Also it sounds like Fl will be short on bees heading out there.

  6. #66
    Join Date
    Jul 2000
    Location
    NE Calif.
    Posts
    2,304

    Default Re: Time to get nervous # 2

    From the NWS:Extended models continue to indicate shortwave energy undercutting
    the ridge. The GFS is quickest in doing so, bringing area-wide
    precipitation as early as early Thursday morning. The ECMWF and
    Canadian counterparts bring a more highly amplified front through
    the region late Thursday and Friday. Regardless, all models show a
    decent moisture plume and favorable dynamics with this system. While
    timing leaves much to be desired, it`s becoming increasingly
    likely that precipitation will fall at some point late next week.
    We`ve bumped up chances of precipitation in the forecast, but have
    hedged the numbers due to uncertainty in timing."

    Hey, you just know its gonna rain when the push comes to get the last hives in. Rock hard orchard ground turns to slippery gumbo mud. Then the real fun begins.

    Didn't see any blooms popping yet in the Chico area yesterday when we were down there working hives, but some orchards were getting that 'thick' look about them.The cold nights have been holding them back, but a few cloudy warmer nights should get things moving.

  7. #67
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    Fruitland ,Idaho
    Posts
    422

    Default Re: Time to get nervous # 2

    Quote Originally Posted by loggermike View Post
    Didn't see any blooms popping yet in the Chico area yesterday when we were down there working hives, but some orchards were getting that 'thick' look about them.The cold nights have been holding them back, but a few cloudy warmer nights should get things moving.
    This is what I have been hearing also.

  8. #68
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    Solano, California, USA
    Posts
    1,380

    Default Re: Time to get nervous # 2

    Nick, Whats the news on the bees coming out of the cellars? heard anything?

  9. #69
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Morro Bay, California, USA
    Posts
    908

    Default Re: Time to get nervous # 2

    Dry air (and dry soil) raise the likelihood of frost damage. The drier the air the earlier you have to turn on sprinklers in order to moderate the frost. (Until the air saturates to the wet bulb temp, the sprinklers actually make it colder).

    No. Cal will get some marine moist air next week. San Joaquin will still be in the continental dry air flowing out of Utah.

    If the bloom is early, you have an extra 10-14 days of risk to frost.

  10. #70
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Amador County, Calif
    Posts
    3,194

    Default Re: Time to get nervous # 2

    Quote Originally Posted by JWChesnut View Post
    the sprinklers actually make it colder).
    So, if I understand you correctly, the sprinklers with warm ground water is colder than the outside air temps?
    NUTRA-BEE feed supplements

  11. #71
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Morro Bay, California, USA
    Posts
    908

    Default Re: Time to get nervous # 2

    Quote Originally Posted by Keith Jarrett View Post
    So, if I understand you correctly, the sprinklers with warm ground water is colder than the outside air temps?
    YES... This is important to know.
    From UC Extension:: "" Sprinkling water into relatively dry air (nights with low dewpoints) will result in high rates of evaporation and rapid *temperature drop* until the air becomes saturated. Consequently, sprinklers must be turned on enough in advance of the critical temperature to allow for this. ""
    http://ceglenn.ucanr.edu/files/44640.pdf has a really useful dewpoint temp calculator for frost protection.

    Phase change (from liquid water to vapor) strips enormous heat (think evaporative cooler on the roof of valley homes). Once the air is saturated and evaporation ceases, the 60 degree well water can radiate heat into the air. Until dew point is reached, and evaporation ends, that state transition is pulling enormous heat from the outside air. Inversely, the phase change from liquid to ice, releases heat into the air. Shallow, rapidly freezing water will warm the air above it.
    Last edited by JWChesnut; 01-25-2014 at 12:32 PM.

  12. #72
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    Fruitland ,Idaho
    Posts
    422

    Default Re: Time to get nervous # 2

    Quote Originally Posted by Honey-4-All View Post
    Nick, Whats the news on the bees coming out of the cellars? heard anything?
    We are shipping now, going to start going through them on monday. I don't anticapate any major problems. We will know for sure in 2 weeks.
    Boss says the spot check looks good and no one is screaming for bees yet.

  13. #73
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Amador County, Calif
    Posts
    3,194

    Default Re: Time to get nervous # 2

    [QUOTE=JWChesnut;1049617Consequently, sprinklers must be turned on enough in advance of the critical temperature to allow for this.[/QUOTE]

    Agree, like most things, TIMING is everything, sprinklers for frost protection has been used for years.
    NUTRA-BEE feed supplements

  14. #74
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Clear Lake, WI / Sebring, FL
    Posts
    633

    Default Re: Time to get nervous # 2

    It looks like some pretty cool weather coming in next week ,if some of these guys can't run frost protection it could be a disaster.
    Clear Lake Wi. / Sebring Fl.

  15. #75
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    Solano, California, USA
    Posts
    1,380

    Default Re: Time to get nervous # 2

    Not like there's not enough to worry about.

    Yesterday I was going through hives doing frame count inspections when I found three (out of about 100) building cell cups on the bottoms of the frames in the middles. One even had an egg inside. Swarms in February.......... yea.... that's what we need. When its April in January i suppose the bees will act like its April. go figure!!!!!!!!

  16. #76
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Morro Bay, California, USA
    Posts
    908

    Default Re: Time to get nervous # 2

    Talking to a grower I work with today. They have a diversified orchard in Firebaugh. Less worried about early Almonds than they are for the Cherry crop and the early plums, apricots, and plucots. The Cherry especially has been pushed by the heat, and may overlap the Almonds. My grower says the Cherry is far more sensitive to a March rain and the flowers freeze more easily than the almonds. There are occassional cherry already popping.

  17. #77
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    Solano, California, USA
    Posts
    1,380

    Default Re: Time to get nervous # 2

    Re the cherries: They have to be can-17 or something similar I would suppose. I've always thought that the greedy bird who wants to land on a Japanese market is occasionally open to getting his feather plucked on his way to a hard landing. I think I'll rent those dinks for $225. Those cherries are going to look a little red when the grower would rather have them taste black.

  18. #78
    Join Date
    May 2012
    Location
    Sacramento, CA, USA
    Posts
    2,928

    Default Re: Time to get nervous # 2

    Coming back up from Visalia today, saw some almonds just starting to bloom about 80 miles south of Sac.... couple trees were around 30% at least, most just starting to pop a few noticeable blooms in the donor rows.

  19. #79
    Join Date
    Oct 2012
    Location
    Lewiston Idaho USA
    Posts
    56

    Default Re: Time to get nervous # 2

    Quote Originally Posted by JRG13 View Post
    Coming back up from Visalia today, saw some almonds just starting to bloom about 80 miles south of Sac.... couple trees were around 30% at least, most just starting to pop a few noticeable blooms in the donor rows.
    Were these early bloom variety? Also along the same question, how far behind the early bloom almonds do the later blooming variety bloom?

  20. #80
    Join Date
    May 2013
    Location
    Northfield,MN
    Posts
    88

    Default Re: Time to get nervous # 2

    waiting on the Blue Diamond web site to update soon

    http://bluediamond.com/applications/....cfm?navid=101

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