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Time to get nervous # 2

37K views 102 replies 29 participants last post by  Honey-4-All 
#1 ·
On 12. 20.2013 I posted my concern about the water situation in California. This is still a big and growing concern but a new one is on the horizon.

Here is a heads up for all of you who pollinate almonds.

The weather here has been gorgeous. Up to 70 with close to freezing at night. Because of the lack of rain and the great weather I began to think about an early almond bloom showing up in 2014 similar to the one we had about a decade or so back.

This morning my Dad came in to chat and we talked about watering our almonds. He also casually mentioned that the buds on the trees were turning red. OH NO I thought!!!!! Here we go and way to early.

With highs in the mid 60's the next week and rain at least a week off I want to give a big heads up to all you beeks who show up in California to meet the pink lady!!!!!

Things might change but you all need to be ready to rumble early this year if things stay on the current track. I am not saying we are going to have a January bloom at this point but the possibility is the greatest I have seen in 30 years.


Will keep you posted!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
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#38 ·
Since the growers are watering im expecting some nectar. Almonds 2013 were a dry month with high temps had sufficient nectar. We strapped all our pallets down so other bees wont get through lids. The robbing isnt terribly bad. All good hives defend well, all dinks have been shaken. Some open barrel feeding is also helping.
 
#40 ·
Its not the almond pollination I'm worried about (yet) although a freeze because of the early bloom and the dryness might toss that potential food source in the can. The real issue is i have no clue where the heck are the bees gonna get breakfast, lunch, and dinner from once the almonds are finished.

It is so bad out there that I might as well ask them to go find lunch in the peace river valley mid February. That or rocket them to the back side of the moon. The build up is going to be non existent and the robbing so bad I might as well move them to Compton so they can hang with the rest of the bangers.
 
#41 · (Edited)
Bulldozing old orchards to save water on westside in Firebaugh.
http://www.fresnobee.com/2014/01/18/3721739/desperatemeasuresfor-valley-farmers.html

Turlock situation
http://www.mercedsunstar.com/2014/01/14/3440843/turlock-irrigation-district-farmers.html

Modesto decides against "charging" the canals to flow January water to tree crops.
http://www.modbee.com/2014/01/14/3134667/modesto-irrigation-district-leaders.html

Fresno Bee editorializes for Well Pumping regulation due to Almond wells in Stanislaus
http://www.fresnobee.com/2014/01/15/3715943/editorial-valley-leaders-must.html

Oakdale rejects Almond farmer's request, plans on export sale of allotment
http://www.modbee.com/2014/01/21/3146632/oakdale-irrigation-district-may.html
 
#44 ·
Time for a serious dose of reality. All of the California yards coming out of the almonds might as well be considered worthless if the are not irrigated. Even those are going to be marginal as all the wildflowers on the fringes are non existent. As of today the we have hit a new milestone. See:

http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/20...-california-hasnt-been-this-dry-in-500-years/

By this weekend we are going to be watering our almonds from the well for the second time this winter. Even after watering a few weeks back the ground is still hard as a rock.

Every day the rain continues to be held at bay the more I get concerned about queen production as well as the quantity of packages that are going to get made up in California. Ouch!!!!!!
 
#45 ·
Every day the rain continues to be held at bay
Been reading this thread as it grows, read the articles in the links. Just reminds me of something I say to folks around here a lot. Our little corner of the world in the pacific northwest is unique in this world. In the vast majority of the world, value of land is defined by the availability of water. Here in our little corner, the value of land is defined by the availability of drainage. Any spot without good drainage, quickly becomes a swamp.

I saw the prices you folks pay for water in some of those links, wowsers. If we could just figure out a way to make my property drain onto yours, we'd all be laughing. I've only got a couple acres, but, it's already had over a foot of rain this year, and lots more in the short term forecast. We have a stream cutting our property in half, and on the weekend, that stream almost overtopped a 16 inch culvert, had me worried for a while. It's doing a lot better today, theres 4 inches of headroom, and growing. We have two more of those, one on the front and another on the back property line, all carrying roughly the same amount of water.

Reading a thread like this helps remind me at times, water is indeed a blessing, and not the curse we view it as at times.
 
#46 ·
Severe drought guidance issued for Almonds --
http://thealmonddoctor.com/2014/01/16/severe-drought-management-recommendations-almond/

"UC researchers have urged growers not to take aggressive actions in reducing tree size or crop load in response to the West side water shortages this year. Severe pruning will increase new growth which would increase the leaf surface and evapo-transpiration rates (ETc) of the tree. Crop thinning has a similar effect and is also not recommended."
.......................
" In general, if the tree is able to maintain some of its leaves until the fall, the tree probably will survive. Yields will be affected severely for the next 2 years. This year would be a good year to remove older blocks with declining production and divert the water to younger blocks if possible."
 
#49 ·
Thanks for the heads up Matt. After reading you post I decided to run out back and see how ours were fairing. From the looks of it I think we will have Winters open By Wednesday ( january 29) and some nons open by Thursday January 30. Night time temps are up. They will go now.
 
#50 ·
So the almost unheard of is happening. Pollen set in California Almonds by Feb 1st. I sure hope the truck drivers are careful. Nobody likes to clean up a load of spilled bees.
 
#56 ·
If its 61 or 62 degrees and above your chances are pretty good in the afternoons. In the 50's it gets pretty dicey. All depends on what we get dealt temp wise once they are rolling. If the weather stays as is the bloom will be fast and the loads will need to be lightened to get them home. statistics say otherwise cause of the early bloom......... But as we see this isn't an average year.
 
#59 ·
Unless he has all late blooming trees you might want to check with the semi driver as to how cheap standby time is? Might be better to just have him idle (carb rules aside) and just take them off of one side of the truck and reload them on the other after they touch the ground and make it all legal. FYI this is a little tounge-in-cheek but might not be to far off from the way it looks right now. Where are these trees at anyways?
 
#61 ·
JW great homework on your part... Were you trained as a research lead investigator or librarian perhaps?

I do remember that year although I couldn't recall of hand when it was. In early and out quick. If you know of any good links to compare the 03 January weather data to the averages I would love to see them. My gut feeling is that as now we were warmer than average. Anyone want to lay down a bet that the 2014 chart for the nonpariels is going to be a week ahead of the 03 chart. There is no holding back at this point.

I'm outa here for the evening.... time to check the pump watering the almonds, go to bed, and drop those bees sitting on the truck in the morning before tomorrows version of California January tan time shows up. 78 here today...... 72 tomorrow.
 
#63 ·
J
I do remember that year although I couldn't recall of hand when it was. In early and out quick. .
California funds a network of agricultural weatherstations called "CIMIS" you can download historic data with your browser. Lots of values (ETo -- or irrigation need is the major economic one).
http://wwwcimis.water.ca.gov/cimis/welcome.jsp
((I work with CIMIS data all the time for my "day job" research -- plant ecology/natural restoration))
Comparing 2002-03 records with 2013-14 data (and the long term average) for Manteca. Manteca is the site of the experimental Almond Orchard -- also State of Ca funded.

2003 had fluctuating temperatures at the Max. 2014 has stayed consistently 10-15 degrees above average Max since the cold snap of early December ended.
As you have noted, the dry air means the night-time low minimums have also been much below normal. Warm days, really cold nights.

 
#64 ·
If you read that temperature trend line and correlate it with the 2003 bloom data, full bloom will be reached on early varieties by Feb 3rd. Growers are going to be going bananas trying to get bees moved into the groves in time.
 
#66 ·
From the NWS:Extended models continue to indicate shortwave energy undercutting
the ridge. The GFS is quickest in doing so, bringing area-wide
precipitation as early as early Thursday morning. The ECMWF and
Canadian counterparts bring a more highly amplified front through
the region late Thursday and Friday. Regardless, all models show a
decent moisture plume and favorable dynamics with this system. While
timing leaves much to be desired, it`s becoming increasingly
likely that precipitation will fall at some point late next week.
We`ve bumped up chances of precipitation in the forecast, but have
hedged the numbers due to uncertainty in timing."

Hey, you just know its gonna rain when the push comes to get the last hives in. Rock hard orchard ground turns to slippery gumbo mud. Then the real fun begins.

Didn't see any blooms popping yet in the Chico area yesterday when we were down there working hives, but some orchards were getting that 'thick' look about them.The cold nights have been holding them back, but a few cloudy warmer nights should get things moving.
 
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