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Time to get nervous # 2

37K views 102 replies 29 participants last post by  Honey-4-All 
#1 ·
On 12. 20.2013 I posted my concern about the water situation in California. This is still a big and growing concern but a new one is on the horizon.

Here is a heads up for all of you who pollinate almonds.

The weather here has been gorgeous. Up to 70 with close to freezing at night. Because of the lack of rain and the great weather I began to think about an early almond bloom showing up in 2014 similar to the one we had about a decade or so back.

This morning my Dad came in to chat and we talked about watering our almonds. He also casually mentioned that the buds on the trees were turning red. OH NO I thought!!!!! Here we go and way to early.

With highs in the mid 60's the next week and rain at least a week off I want to give a big heads up to all you beeks who show up in California to meet the pink lady!!!!!

Things might change but you all need to be ready to rumble early this year if things stay on the current track. I am not saying we are going to have a January bloom at this point but the possibility is the greatest I have seen in 30 years.


Will keep you posted!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
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#5 ·
Even though my caption say says "nervous" its not my point........... Mostly a heads up..... A big heads UP!!!!!! An early almond bloom encapsulated by the drought is going to make this very interesting once the almonds are finished.

Not fun or profitable...... interesting.

I'm personally wading warily as to possible ramifications and considering some very drastic options being left on the plate we are being handed. The good ones are few and diminishing while the drastic ones look increasingly dismal.
 
#7 ·
Not saying yet. Will be watching the trees at home and my "indicator" trees which often give a week + heads up. The earliest I can remember in the past was the first few days of February. The answer really depends on what happens with the weather in the next few weeks. Thats out of my control. Just being observant at this point.
 
#11 ·
Went to feed in the foothills today gooseberrys blooming at least 3weeks early. Don't think we ever got winter bees brooded all winter, bees flew every day good thing I fed all winter remindes me of Southern California.
 
#13 ·
Little more heads up for those of you wondering what is happening with the almond bloom.

We have had March weather for a good while already the past few weeks. 70 degrees today outside right now as I type. The buds are pushing on the early variteties,

If this keeps up it is my guess at this point that the general almond bloom will begin or be going about a month from today. If you look at the link you will see different stages of the fruit bud.

On Thursday I stopped by one of my indicator trees to see how it was progressing.

Sitting on my desk is a sprig from the tree and has moved to the picture #2 stage where there is "hair" on the swelling buds.

http://thealmonddoctor.com/almond/the-seasonal-patterns-of-almond-production/

If I see green tips within 10 days the whole thing will be on a roll in less than a month.
 
#15 ·
Barring a major cold snap my guess is that right now it is 5-7 days advanced at this point... maybe a slight hair more. Supposed to get "rain" here next week but the way the satellite photos look I would bet its not going to give us more than a spritz. Average daily temps forecast to be 8-10 degrees above the average for the next week. Fortunately the nights are still pretty cool.... about 5 -7 below the averages. This will help slow the buds down. Looks like a battle for the buds on both ends. We are all hoping the lows don't continue once the flowers open (or later)
 
#17 ·
I today checked two of the few booming hives I have, and they have filled most of a medium super of winter eucalyptus honey.
 
#19 ·
Titel of the thread is time to get nervous---Honey -4- All sets a time line of 5-7 days early :rolleyes:
other threads say watter cut to growers on eastside-:rolleyes:growers tell me maybe they will be cut by 3 delivers whole year -readjust there watering schedule acordingly---
Down in the valley away from the northern groves no one is nervious-trees are not pushing
Let the rain take its time --april may and june means good mating for early queens and fat packages with a baner honey crop
seams to me this is a blessing enjoy it this dosent happen every year:eek: put it all on Red and let it ride---RDY-B
 
#23 ·
Bud swelling before pink is driven by root formation and soil water as well as temperature. Our current cold nights (air is very dry and holds no heat) is holding things back in the SJ. However, I've seen farmers "banking" water in the soil in anticipation of delivery cut-off.

Not to be chicken-little, but the nut farmers are in a bind --- if spring rains come (and January looks like a zero), then the blossoms wash off the trees in the 1990-style "miracle March". If spring rains fail, then water deliveries will be curtailed and the "June drop" will shrink the crop. Either way, the farmers are looking at bad year.

I suspect the farmers will go light on hives because it represents a sunk cost going into a bad year. They may assume the June drop will be high and want to reduce the set to size up the remaining nuts the trees will actually support to harvest. Or they may assume that the blossoms are going to freeze or wash off, and will avoid spending money on a weather loss.

Nut prices will spike -- does that mean even more planting as speculators run the per acre return at the pricing, or does it mean other nuts are going to substituted in consumer foods and the almond demand will finally hit its supply/demand limit.
 
#24 ·
if spring rains come (and January looks like a zero), then the blossoms wash off the trees in the 1990-style "miracle March". If spring rains fail, then water deliveries will be curtailed and the "June drop" will shrink the crop. Either way, the farmers are looking at bad year.
No March miracle is in sight according to the climate modelers. Accuweather.com's Feb.& March precipitation outlook for California is bleak: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weath...e-monthly-long-range-forecast-models/21898625 Even worse, the NOAA long range outlook is for above average temperatures over most of California this coming summer: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=6 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=7
 
#25 ·
Update. Upper 60's through lower 70's forecast all week. Rain at least a week off once again. Wagers on a end of January Almond bloom are looking to be well placed bets.


After the Norcal queen breeders meeting on Wednesday I will be posting some predictions on "Time to get worried # 3." Anyone want to guess what the subject is going to be about?
 
#26 ·
From the NWS: "Earlier indications of a possible pattern change to a "wetter"
pattern during the latter two weeks of Jan seem to be waning as
the West Coast ridge diverts the Pacific jet well to the north...

otherwise more
unseasonably mild wx with mid 60s to mid 70s for the valley and
lower foothills and mainly 50s and 60s in the mtns...possibly
nearing some record maxes..."

We had a light rain in the North on Saturday, but still looking dry. California is gonna burn this summer:(
 
#27 ·
We had a light rain in the North on Saturday, but still looking dry. California is gonna burn this summer:(
Mike: Our rain consisted of a mist so light it passed by as fleetingly as a drone's singular moment of glory. T'was gone before it came.

Your use of the word BURN is such a gentle description of what lies ahead. If this place fails to achieve the status of "inferno" I will be shocked.

Time to start the talk about reducing numbers or do the Out-of- state shuffle for anyone who doesn't personally own their own version of Spreckels or us.
 
#35 ·
Little update. The weather continues to roast us. 73 outside as I type. Locally about 50% of the bees are already in the almonds. Noticing a couple of ramifications from the heat and drought. No food out there so the bees are very hot on robbing. Secondly, since we have had no rain the ants are not pushed back into the ground are hell bent on attacking anything they can. I have never had ants on the bees in the Almonds in 30 years. They are on the sides of the boxes right now looking to find a way in. As hot as its is I can't imagine how those 1000" hive holding yards are fairing. Has to be a lot of robbing going down as the bees burn up what winter stores they have and burn themselves out looking for what is not out there. Still think the trees will be open around February 2-4 +- a few days.
 
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