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  1. #21
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    Solano, California, USA
    Posts
    1,356

    Default Re: Time to get nervous # 2

    Picture in the local paper of an open almond Bloom in Benicia at a local state park. Open on January 6, 2014.

    65 today and 70's next week. No rain for 10 more days. Every day this keeps up the closer to Feb 1 i'm guessing the bloom is going to be rocking.

  2. #22
    Join Date
    May 2013
    Location
    Northfield,MN
    Posts
    86

    Default Re: Time to get nervous # 2

    At this point if it were to turn to rain that would be the thing that would make the bloom very early.
    Rain= warm nights= pushing the bloom early.
    seems like the nights are fairly cool as of now

  3. #23
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Morro Bay, California, USA
    Posts
    839

    Default Re: Time to get nervous # 2

    Bud swelling before pink is driven by root formation and soil water as well as temperature. Our current cold nights (air is very dry and holds no heat) is holding things back in the SJ. However, I've seen farmers "banking" water in the soil in anticipation of delivery cut-off.

    Not to be chicken-little, but the nut farmers are in a bind --- if spring rains come (and January looks like a zero), then the blossoms wash off the trees in the 1990-style "miracle March". If spring rains fail, then water deliveries will be curtailed and the "June drop" will shrink the crop. Either way, the farmers are looking at bad year.

    I suspect the farmers will go light on hives because it represents a sunk cost going into a bad year. They may assume the June drop will be high and want to reduce the set to size up the remaining nuts the trees will actually support to harvest. Or they may assume that the blossoms are going to freeze or wash off, and will avoid spending money on a weather loss.

    Nut prices will spike -- does that mean even more planting as speculators run the per acre return at the pricing, or does it mean other nuts are going to substituted in consumer foods and the almond demand will finally hit its supply/demand limit.

  4. #24
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    Sacramento, Calif. USA
    Posts
    272

    Default Re: Time to get nervous # 2

    Quote Originally Posted by JWChesnut View Post
    if spring rains come (and January looks like a zero), then the blossoms wash off the trees in the 1990-style "miracle March". If spring rains fail, then water deliveries will be curtailed and the "June drop" will shrink the crop. Either way, the farmers are looking at bad year.
    No March miracle is in sight according to the climate modelers. Accuweather.com's Feb.& March precipitation outlook for California is bleak: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weathe...odels/21898625 Even worse, the NOAA long range outlook is for above average temperatures over most of California this coming summer: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...nal.php?lead=6 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...nal.php?lead=7

  5. #25
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    Solano, California, USA
    Posts
    1,356

    Default Re: Time to get nervous # 2

    Update. Upper 60's through lower 70's forecast all week. Rain at least a week off once again. Wagers on a end of January Almond bloom are looking to be well placed bets.


    After the Norcal queen breeders meeting on Wednesday I will be posting some predictions on "Time to get worried # 3." Anyone want to guess what the subject is going to be about?

  6. #26
    Join Date
    Jul 2000
    Location
    NE Calif.
    Posts
    2,303

    Default Re: Time to get nervous # 2

    From the NWS: "Earlier indications of a possible pattern change to a "wetter"
    pattern during the latter two weeks of Jan seem to be waning as
    the West Coast ridge diverts the Pacific jet well to the north...

    otherwise more
    unseasonably mild wx with mid 60s to mid 70s for the valley and
    lower foothills and mainly 50s and 60s in the mtns...possibly
    nearing some record maxes..."

    We had a light rain in the North on Saturday, but still looking dry. California is gonna burn this summer

  7. #27
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    Solano, California, USA
    Posts
    1,356

    Default Re: Time to get nervous # 2

    Quote Originally Posted by loggermike View Post

    We had a light rain in the North on Saturday, but still looking dry. California is gonna burn this summer
    Mike: Our rain consisted of a mist so light it passed by as fleetingly as a drone's singular moment of glory. T'was gone before it came.

    Your use of the word BURN is such a gentle description of what lies ahead. If this place fails to achieve the status of "inferno" I will be shocked.

    Time to start the talk about reducing numbers or do the Out-of- state shuffle for anyone who doesn't personally own their own version of Spreckels or us.

  8. #28
    Join Date
    Jul 2000
    Location
    NE Calif.
    Posts
    2,303

    Default Re: Time to get nervous # 2

    Exactly. Gonna have to make some drastic changes to deal with this drought situation.

    On the other hand, Feb and March might be wet. Probably will rain all through the bloom!

  9. #29
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    Spokane, Washington, USA
    Posts
    719

    Default Re: Time to get nervous # 2

    Talked to the growers I work with. They dont think the bloom will be here earlier than feb 1st. For this time they say the buds look normal.

  10. #30
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Location
    Jefferson Co, TX
    Posts
    637

    Default Re: Time to get nervous # 2

    One of the big guys in my area shipped everything out by the end of last week. Left behind some swarms, maybe queenless, but still free bees giving a few snowbirds a surprise. I assume the hives are sitting over there now.
    Started 9/13, building slowly, now @ 7 Lang hives + 5 nucs, and treatment style not decided yet

  11. #31
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    clayton cal.
    Posts
    199

    Default Re: Time to get nervous # 2

    california bees for california almonds- the bees looks TITS ON a RITZ whats the wory
    im trying to keep up with this--Almond prices are going to stay up---demand wont decline
    It will rain my man-- it comes every year-- RDY-B

  12. #32
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Location
    Livermore, CA
    Posts
    1,392

    Default Re: Time to get nervous # 2

    Talked to my farmer last night and he said the buds are small on the trees this year. He also said he talked to a friend of his that is a crop insurance agent
    and he said he has never been employed by as many almond growers as he has this year.
    Coyote Creek Bees

  13. #33
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    Solano, California, USA
    Posts
    1,356

    Default Re: Time to get nervous # 2

    Couple of updates.

    Still have warm temps during the days followed with below average nighttime lows. Green tips peaking on some early trees. Big commercial guys are starting to put in as of today.

  14. #34
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    Spokane, Washington, USA
    Posts
    719

    Default Re: Time to get nervous # 2

    Growers gave us thumbs up for last week of Jan. Bloom should start around 10th but no one is real sure. Why is Bluediamond posting their results on website?

  15. #35
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    Solano, California, USA
    Posts
    1,356

    Default Re: Time to get nervous # 2

    Little update. The weather continues to roast us. 73 outside as I type. Locally about 50% of the bees are already in the almonds. Noticing a couple of ramifications from the heat and drought. No food out there so the bees are very hot on robbing. Secondly, since we have had no rain the ants are not pushed back into the ground are hell bent on attacking anything they can. I have never had ants on the bees in the Almonds in 30 years. They are on the sides of the boxes right now looking to find a way in. As hot as its is I can't imagine how those 1000" hive holding yards are fairing. Has to be a lot of robbing going down as the bees burn up what winter stores they have and burn themselves out looking for what is not out there. Still think the trees will be open around February 2-4 +- a few days.

  16. #36
    Join Date
    Jan 2003
    Location
    Manitoba Canada
    Posts
    5,909

    Default Re: Time to get nervous # 2

    Given the heat and dryness, do you expect less nectar and poor quality pollen production?
    Are you anticipating having to feed more supplemental feed through the next three weeks?
    And with those kinda bee pressures, how do you feed without everything getting tore up with robbing?

  17. #37
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Hughson, CA
    Posts
    153

    Default Re: Time to get nervous # 2

    Yes.
    Yes.

  18. #38
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    Spokane, Washington, USA
    Posts
    719

    Default Re: Time to get nervous # 2

    Quote Originally Posted by Ian View Post
    Given the heat and dryness, do you expect less nectar and poor quality pollen production?
    Are you anticipating having to feed more supplemental feed through the next three weeks?
    And with those kinda bee pressures, how do you feed without everything getting tore up with robbing?
    Since the growers are watering im expecting some nectar. Almonds 2013 were a dry month with high temps had sufficient nectar. We strapped all our pallets down so other bees wont get through lids. The robbing isnt terribly bad. All good hives defend well, all dinks have been shaken. Some open barrel feeding is also helping.

  19. #39
    Join Date
    Jan 2003
    Location
    Manitoba Canada
    Posts
    5,909

    Default Re: Time to get nervous # 2

    good luck guys on the upcoming pollination!!
    Ian Steppler >> Canadian Beekeeper's Blog
    www.stepplerfarms.com

  20. #40
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    Solano, California, USA
    Posts
    1,356

    Default Re: Time to get nervous # 2

    Quote Originally Posted by Ian View Post
    good luck guys on the upcoming pollination!!

    Its not the almond pollination I'm worried about (yet) although a freeze because of the early bloom and the dryness might toss that potential food source in the can. The real issue is i have no clue where the heck are the bees gonna get breakfast, lunch, and dinner from once the almonds are finished.

    It is so bad out there that I might as well ask them to go find lunch in the peace river valley mid February. That or rocket them to the back side of the moon. The build up is going to be non existent and the robbing so bad I might as well move them to Compton so they can hang with the rest of the bangers.

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