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  1. #1
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    Spokane, Washington, USA
    Posts
    734

    Angry Predictions 2014

    Any predictions on almonds coming up?

    Good luck to all is what I predict.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    Campbell River, BC, CA
    Posts
    530

    Default Re: Predictions 2014

    It'll be a bonanza for some, a bust for others. Gold rush mentality will prevail.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Amador County, Calif
    Posts
    3,191

    Default Re: Predictions 2014

    RAK, I was wondering when this topic was going to come up...... ya know I sell alot of sub & talk with alot of keepers & the one thing I hear lately from them is " boy the bees sure look alot better than they did last year at this time". So my GUESS is..... noop not going there... I've been wrong so many times I've gave up predicting the almonds.

    PS this week almond prices nons & pollinators NORTH of $3.00 lb
    NUTRA-BEE feed supplements

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Jamestown, North Dakota, USA
    Posts
    145

    Default Re: Predictions 2014

    Yep, you never know but it's good not to let your guard down. I just finished with mite treatments but my loads were much lower than in the past. Now, it's feed, feed, feed!! Rising value of almonds is always a good sign

    Quote Originally Posted by Keith Jarrett View Post
    RAK, I was wondering when this topic was going to come up...... ya know I sell alot of sub & talk with alot of keepers & the one thing I hear lately from them is " boy the bees sure look alot better than they did last year at this time". So my GUESS is..... noop not going there... I've been wrong so many times I've gave up predicting the almonds.

    PS this week almond prices nons & pollinators NORTH of $3.00 lb

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Jun 2003
    Location
    Lakeland FL
    Posts
    848

    Default Re: Predictions 2014

    Honestly around here and the guys that come to FL i have heard the opposite. Lots of bees tanking in the Dakotas as the honey is getting pulled. Had three calls this past week for bees that have already been sold. Guess we will just have to wait and see. Ya never know whats talk and whats not lol

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Sep 2012
    Location
    St. Petersburg, fl, USA
    Posts
    186

    Default Re: Predictions 2014

    The managed bees may be in trouble but the feral bees are going nuts. We can have all the bees that we want if we just come and get them. I think Florida has the worst constructed houses in the world--Knot holes in the siding, Sofits that have gaps, holes in the wall that the cable guy drilled and did not seal. We have seen it all this week.Yesterday we took a big hive off of a window-built right out in the open. No bee shortage here.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Amador County, Calif
    Posts
    3,191

    Big Grin Re: Predictions 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by swarm_trapper View Post
    Honestly around here and the guys that come to FL i have heard the opposite. Lots of bees tanking in the Dakotas
    I'm sorry Nick, I was referring to the folks that fed Nutra Bee....

    Couldn't let that one get by.
    NUTRA-BEE feed supplements

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Location
    Fresno Ca USA
    Posts
    154

    Default Re: Predictions 2014

    There is a Broker advertising in The ABJ. Offering $180.00 per hive to beekeepers.
    My discussions with Growers in August, are that they expect to pay substantially less.
    California Almond Pollination Services, Inc.
    http://www.almondbeepollination.com

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Jul 2000
    Location
    NE Calif.
    Posts
    2,304

    Default Re: Predictions 2014

    Now why would they think that? any idea what their reasoning is?

    If they meant $200 for a 3 framer like some of them paid for , well I'd agree..

    " boy the bees sure look alot better than they did last year at this time"
    Thats true in our case too.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    Camarillo, CA, USA
    Posts
    312

    Default Re: Predictions 2014

    The value of our bees is high to the grower, just asked them to go without the bees.

    One of my main concerns is the unknown factor, we can not always predict what the hives will look like in Feburary.

    Currently the price should be around $180 for an 8 frame hive with a 5 to 7 dollar bonus for each additional frame up to 12.

    Just remember our costs are continually rising and we need to be profitable to stay in business.
    Larry Pender,Jubilee HoneyBee Company,Camarillo, CA

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Clear Lake, WI / Sebring, FL
    Posts
    633

    Default Re: Predictions 2014

    Im hearing a big factor in Ca, is the water. In some areas the growers cant get any. I don't know how many will be pushing up old trees and reseting ,I still cant see the demand falling that much. Feb is close but it is still a long way off.
    Clear Lake Wi. / Sebring Fl.

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    Salem, Oregon
    Posts
    963

    Default Re: Predictions 2014

    This year will be the 9th year with the same grower. (No broker)
    My grower treats me VERY GOOD. Every year he clears out a lane in his barn for me and gives me a key.
    He has a Polaris Ranger that is mine for the entire time I am there.
    Last year, while I was down working the bees, I told him that I had a huge bottle order at Mann Lake. While he was on business nearby, he picked up the order and brought it to the ranch.
    My grower, that I want to keep, and I have an agreement not to gouge.
    We want to continue with the concept that we are working together, NOT against each other.
    If the price went from $150.00 to $200.00 I would expect to raise my price maybe $15.00 - $20.00.
    Then if it stayed at $200.00 maybe another $10.00 - $15.00 the next year etc.....
    But the idea of calling him and demanding a spike to $200.00 or else?!!
    Not going to happen.
    My grower has become a personal friend of mine and my family.

    I really enjoy following along with the annual "Callifornia gold fever" that pops up every year at this time. But I enjoy it for entertainment value only.
    I am not going to stab my grower in the back after years of his loyalty to our company.
    Do what you want; I just wanted to inject a different perspective.
    I have exactly ONE hive more than you.
    That makes my opinion beyond question.

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    Camarillo, CA, USA
    Posts
    312

    Default Re: Predictions 2014

    Harry, why do you say a price increase is a GOUGE, we are not the ones printing money so fast that the inflation pressures are beating on our companies., From fuel to labor to insurance I have yet to see any of our expenses go down, nor have I seen the queen attrition rates go down either. in fact we where more profitable when prices were $ 45 per hive. I live and work in a place called reality , I have to make decisions based on facts, not what I want them to be, calling a price increase a gouge is not correct.

    The question I would ask, what is the grower doing with the additional profit he makes because he is paying 30 to 40 dollars per acre less than other growers and sells for the same amount. Has he ever offered a bonus on production? 500 aces X 40 = $ 20,000 , just a simple example.

    But also in a capitalistic economic system you do have the right to charge what you want. Enjoy
    Larry Pender,Jubilee HoneyBee Company,Camarillo, CA

  14. #14
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    Spokane, Washington, USA
    Posts
    734

    Default Re: Predictions 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by Keith Jarrett View Post
    RAK, I was wondering when this topic was going to come up.....

    Keith, It's about time someone started this one.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    Spokane, Washington, USA
    Posts
    734

    Default Re: Predictions 2014

    I'm also hearing lots of talk on the water issue. I pollinate Stockton area and its tough with the water down there. I tell my growers that they can have all the water the want... We get way too much of it up here. Its pouring as I type.

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    Herrick, SD USA
    Posts
    4,453

    Default Re: Predictions 2014

    The water issue is going to limit expansion of the California almond industry before a shortage of bees does. My WAG on how things will shake out this year? Good bees will bring 150+( just like last year) while those peddling 3 combers will be SOL.
    "People will generally accept facts as truth only if the facts agree with what they already believe."- Andy Rooney

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Location
    Maricopa, Ariz, USA
    Posts
    90

    Default Re: Predictions 2014

    A "MAJOR" growers contract was just released.........$150.00 for eight frames plus bonus with 'full' inspection. Every grower in the valley will know about it in no time.

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Clear Lake, WI / Sebring, FL
    Posts
    633

    Default Re: Predictions 2014

    I heard a "MAJOR" grower was offering 175.00 plus bonus with inspection . Let the rumors begin.
    Clear Lake Wi. / Sebring Fl.

  19. #19
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Location
    Maricopa, Ariz, USA
    Posts
    90

    Default Re: Predictions 2014

    There was no "heard" or "rumor" in my post. The contract is laying here on my desk.

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    Central Valley, CA, USA
    Posts
    82

    Default Re: Predictions 2014

    Here is what Joe Traynor wrote in his Beekeeper Newsletter – July 23, 2013: http://www.beesource.com/point-of-vi...-july-23-2013/

    " The total 2014 bee supply for almonds will be greater than in 2013 due to better moisture conditions in the plains states and to better varroa control (the new Apivar strips are doing a good job). Don’t look for a repeat of the 2013 bee shortage – an excess of almond bees is more likely. Beekeepers that are making lots of divides in anticipation of another bee shortage next year may wish they hadn’t."

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