My opinion is that if you are in an area where you can catch wild swarms that are from naturally swarming, healthy bee colonies, then try the treatment free small cell method.

If these are unavailable to you, that's a sign that your bees are going to have big problems if you don't treat.

My feeling is that, on another forum which shall remain unnamed, many beginners start out idealistically thinking that they will be treatment free with their new package bees. At first they ask many questions, then after awhile they are not heard from again. Draw your own conclusions.