So think of the hives the same way. If each hive has a 36.7% chance of loss, and you have an infinite number of them, your loss will tend toward 36.7%. But if you have 10 hives or 20, each combination of death/live has a probability. So my numbers are such that with a 36.7% chance of death for each hive, if I want to have less than a 5% chance of losing more than half my hives, I need 26 hives to make that happen. With 26 hives, the chance of having more than 13 die is less than 5%. You can caculate any percentage you'd like though. With those 26 hives and a chance of loss at 36.7% for each hive, what's my percentage of losing at least 10 of those? 50%. You've got a 50% chance of losing 10 hives or more, because that includes the probability of losing 10, 11, 12, 13, 14....all the way to 26. If I lower the chance of loss to 29.5%, what's the chance of losing 10 hives or more? 21%. Now I only have a 21% chance of losing 10 hives or more. My point is I believe that every point you shave from the chance of loss makes a fairly large difference. It isn't just the difference of a fraction of a hive.