Studies done on hives wintered in the north showed that the cluster moved or started in the bottom box in fall and moved upward during winter. I will assume that the researchers observed this in the majority of hives.
Walt has a good point on honey stores and no doubt some clusters will behave differently depending on feed location.
Most northern hives are packed away in Oct/Nov and because of weather are not inspected until Feb/Mar so it makes it hard to know exactly how and when the cluster moves. When I ran doubles a few clusters were still in the bottom box in March, some were half way up into the top and some were mostly in the top box.
Now that I winter in singles the cluster is hopefully found where I left it.