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  1. #241
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    Default Re: Ask Questions Here!

    Exactly. And that's why the way these statistics might be presented can be misleading.

    This was one of the things I was wanting to bring out but it's been a long time for someone to twig to it & express it.

    When talking on the forum about comparative losses, it is more honest to use the raw data. IE, total hives against total hives. Rather than means between groups etc. Not everybody understands that.

    So. Is the difference still insignificant?
    44 years, been commercial, outfits up to 4000 hives, now 120 hives and 200 nucs as a hobby, selling bees. T (mostly).

  2. #242
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    Default Re: Ask Questions Here!

    You all have intellectualized all day and still not answered my question....are there studies showing the percentage of losses treated VS non treated?

  3. #243
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    Default Re: Ask Questions Here!

    Quote Originally Posted by odfrank View Post
    You all have intellectualized all day and still not answered my question....are there studies showing the percentage of losses treated VS non treated?
    What's wrong with this one?

  4. #244
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    Default Re: Ask Questions Here!

    Well a man clever enough to "grasp" what a group is and "understand" what a mean is ought to be able to work that out Raldridge, it's a fundamental "understanding" of statistics LOL.

    The best ones are not obtained by surveys that are voluntary, rely on what people choose to reveal, appeal to some sectors more than others, and include people with strong opinions and biases.

    That's to answer your question. However, for me, I'll go with the survey, it's the best one I'm aware of.
    44 years, been commercial, outfits up to 4000 hives, now 120 hives and 200 nucs as a hobby, selling bees. T (mostly).

  5. #245
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    Default Re: Ask Questions Here!

    What are Mean, Lower and Upper?

  6. #246
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    Default Re: Ask Questions Here!

    Quote Originally Posted by Oldtimer View Post
    Well a man clever enough to "grasp" what a group is and "understand" what a mean is ought to be able to work that out Raldridge, it's a fundamental "understanding" of statistics LOL.
    .
    Apparently, the ability to parse a sentence in English is another difficult skill to master, for some people. He asked for a "study." Not a "perfect study."

    In my opinion, the weaknesses in this study mean that those who are considering treatment-free beekeeping should be wildly encouraged to give it a try. As I pointed out upthread, the results are skewed by the fact that among the treatment-free group are many hobbyists and newbies, whose predictably poor results have dragged down the stats of the successful treatment free beekeepers among them. On the other hand, those who are willing to treat with any product are more likely to be commercial and sideline beekeepers whose experience should give them an edge over the substantial percentage of smalltimers in the treatment free group. And yet, their experience does not seem to give them better winter survival-- and their much greater hive numbers make their results more statistically meaningful.

    odfrank, Google "confidence intervals." Long story short, they denote limits into which some very high percentage of results fall. I don't have the study in front of me, but I think it's 95% in this case. So what they're saying is 95% of the results fall between the lower and upper CIs.

    Mean is just a synonym for average.

  7. #247
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    Default Re: Ask Questions Here!

    Ok well I'll add "can't parse a sentence in English", to "half cocked", and all my other faults and put downs too numerous to mention that have been sent my way in the last couple pages.

    Kinda wondering about all these put downs though, am I really that bad? Or, are some people so unable to handle an opinion other than their own, that in the absence of sensible supporting argument, they have to resort to this type of level?
    44 years, been commercial, outfits up to 4000 hives, now 120 hives and 200 nucs as a hobby, selling bees. T (mostly).

  8. #248
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    Quote Originally Posted by rhaldridge View Post
    Mean is just a synonym for average.
    I know I can't talk English and all, but your statement is incorrect.
    44 years, been commercial, outfits up to 4000 hives, now 120 hives and 200 nucs as a hobby, selling bees. T (mostly).

  9. #249
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oldtimer View Post
    I know I can't talk English and all, but your statement is incorrect.
    Oh for heaven's sake. An arithmetic mean is exactly what most folks think of when they think of "average," a set of numbers added together and divided by the number of numbers. Mathematicians might include mode and median in the umbrella, but since these terms are not what odfrank asked about, and because they have nothing to do with the subject, why bring them up?

    For a guy who loves to dish it out, you don't take it very well, do you?

  10. #250
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    Quote Originally Posted by rhaldridge View Post
    Oh for heaven's sake. An arithmetic mean is exactly what most folks think of when they think of "average," a set of numbers added together and divided by the number of numbers. Mathematicians might include mode and median in the umbrella, but since these terms are not what odfrank asked about, and because they have nothing to do with the subject, why bring them up?
    You don't get it. I was being pedantic, because of your overly pedantic comparison of "study", and "perfect study", words which by the way I never even mentioned.

    For a guy who loves to dish it out, you don't take it very well, do you?

    I will add though, that in a survey such as this with low numbers of participants in some categories, the difference between mean and average can be important, and is worthy of mention so as not to distort anything. If the authors felt there was no difference they would have just gone with average. They used the mean in some cases because it matters, and it can be a useful tool. Whoever I was talking to I think the difference between average and mean should be explained, to me, it would matter.
    44 years, been commercial, outfits up to 4000 hives, now 120 hives and 200 nucs as a hobby, selling bees. T (mostly).

  11. #251
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    Default Re: Ask Questions Here!

    Quote Originally Posted by Oldtimer View Post
    I will add though, that in a survey such as this with low numbers of participants in some categories, the difference between mean and average can be important,.
    A mean is an average. Ask any mathematician.

    I don't know how any other definition of "average" has any meaning in this particular context.

    You don't get it. I was being pedantic, because of your overly pedantic comparison of "study", and "perfect study", words which by the way I never even mentioned.
    Sigh. The Beeinformed study does in fact cover the subject odfrank asked about. It is not perfect, as all have acknowledged, over and over.

    odfrank asked if there was a study comparing survival rates between treaters and non-treaters. I asked what was wrong with this study. Whereupon you launched into an examination of the inadequacies of the study, already mentioned in previous posts. I guess I should have said "why is this not such a study?" but then I'm sure you would have dredged up something else to complain about. That seems to be what you do.

    Well, bye again.

  12. #252
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    Default Re: Ask Questions Here!

    Quote Originally Posted by odfrank View Post
    You all have intellectualized all day and still not answered my question....are there studies showing the percentage of losses treated VS non treated?
    "There are lies, **** lies and statistics."

    You have to be a bit canny to know just what a statistic is telling you. You have to look up the study, see how the data was collected, study how it was processed. You have to critique the study to discover what weaknesses it has, and to form a view of just what it represents, and why.

    To do that well you have to be able to make such studies yourself, and then be prepared to treat the issue seriously and give it quite a bit of time. Those are skills usually learned during doctoral studies. It involves what is to most people (me) some fairly tricky maths, and a lot of thinking about how different approaches to collecting and processing data will supply different conclusions, and what that means for the study. If you've never done that (I haven't though I have peeked at the process) I think its fair to say that you often _should_ be confused and bewildered by the effort to discover just what a statistic is telling you. What that means is: you've got something right. There isn't a simple answer to most question about a statistical statement.

    The bald, unstudied answer is, as others have said, yes this study suggests that treated vs untreated came out about even.

    Quite what you can take from that is tougher - though to me its a heartening start. But, to be accurate, there isn't a simple answer to your question.

    You can't conclude from that 50:50 ish result that if you stop treating you will have a 50% chance of success.

    And you can't either process any deeper maths that tells you what you're chances of success are.

    You can however maximise your chances - and get them very good indeed - by studying the mechanisms involved and going about things in a well planned way. Or you can just get lucky.

    Mike (UK)

    PS If my (untreated data) had been included it would tend to slew the results downwards - I took about two thirds losses last winter. But that was deliberate - I was allowing the winter to sort the men from boys in a population largely composed of swarms of varying origins. There may well have been others doing the same thing.
    Last edited by mike bispham; 07-24-2013 at 02:10 AM.
    Anti-husbandry: Medication + Reproduction = Continuing Sickness
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  13. #253
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    Default Re: Ask Questions Here!

    Quote Originally Posted by odfrank View Post
    What are Mean, Lower and Upper?
    Take 5 numbers that I have picked at random with the intend to demonstrate average and mean.

    1, 75,73,72 and 2

    The average is adding all 5 numbers and then dividing by 5. this gives us 44.6 as the average.
    It is easy to see that the majority of the numbers fall well above the average. The mean would be where the majority fall and in this case it is 73.3. this is the mean.

    Average is the total of all individuals divided by the number of individuals.
    Mean is the number that the majority are near. It excludes the extreme highs and lows.
    Stand for what you believe, even if you stand alone.

  14. #254
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    Default Re: Ask Questions Here!

    Thank you Daniel. While it is pretty simple it is also surprising how many people don't realise there is a difference between the two.

    Also, both have their uses. The example you have given is a good one, because while average may seem the right way to go, if those numbers represented some things, the average could be a distortion of the main group of them, the mean would be a better picture.

    Good post also Mike, statistics, and their use, and misuse, are a fascinating topic.
    44 years, been commercial, outfits up to 4000 hives, now 120 hives and 200 nucs as a hobby, selling bees. T (mostly).

  15. #255
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    Default Re: Ask Questions Here!

    Quote Originally Posted by Oldtimer View Post
    statistics, and their use, and misuse, are a fascinating topic.
    100% of our household agrees.
    Is it solipsistic in here, or is it just me?

  16. #256
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    Default Re: Ask Questions Here!

    duplicate post
    Last edited by cg3; 07-24-2013 at 06:17 AM. Reason: stupid internet
    Is it solipsistic in here, or is it just me?

  17. #257
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    Default Re: Ask Questions Here!

    Well if 100% of your household agrees, then the average and the mean for your house would be the same.

    Ha Ha
    44 years, been commercial, outfits up to 4000 hives, now 120 hives and 200 nucs as a hobby, selling bees. T (mostly).

  18. #258
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    Default Re: Ask Questions Here!

    Did anybody ever answer Odfrank?

  19. #259
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    Default Re: Ask Questions Here!

    jmho, but i believe the answer to odfrank's question is best answered 'unknown'.

    the survey lacks scientific rigor. we could probably come just as close to an answer by conducting a poll here on beesource.

    the problem would still be the lack of consistency in methods and disproportion in sample size.

    whether treating or not, there will be losses, and it's best to have a contingency for replacing them.

    again jmho, but the decision to treat or not at this point remains more of a philosophical one that a scientific one.

    i'm not stuck on any particular philosophy, but choose not to treat primarily because my bees are thriving after many years of not being treated and i don't see any reason to interfere with that, plus i feel like it will be a selling point should i start selling nucs and queens in any meaningful way.
    beekeeping since june 2010, +/- 20 hives, tf

  20. #260
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    Default Re: Ask Questions Here!

    Quote Originally Posted by D Semple View Post
    Did anybody ever answer Odfrank?
    I find it not worth my time to tailor my answers to the demands of other people. If you don't like the answer you get, ask another question, don't claim nobody answered the first one.
    Solomon Parker, Parker Farms, ParkerFarms.biz
    11 Years Treatment-Free, ~25 Colony Baseline

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