View Poll Results: Southern California Honey Crop above or below average?

Voters
15. You may not vote on this poll
  • Above

    1 6.67%
  • Below

    11 73.33%
  • About right.

    2 13.33%
  • Too soon to tell.

    1 6.67%
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Results 41 to 48 of 48
  1. #41
    Join Date
    Dec 2002
    Location
    Denver, Colorado
    Posts
    5,033

    Default Re: How is your crop looking?

    I wonder how many years beekeepers would report 'below average.' My uneducated guess would be that it would be greater than half.
    Solomon Parker, Parker Farms, ParkerFarms.biz
    11 Years Treatment-Free, ~25 Colony Baseline

  2. #42
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Brasher Falls, NY, USA
    Posts
    26,106

    Default Re: How is your crop looking?

    Is your prediction from some understanding of statistical analysis?
    Mark Berninghausen "That which works, persists."

  3. #43
    Join Date
    Dec 2002
    Location
    Denver, Colorado
    Posts
    5,033

    Default Re: How is your crop looking?

    It's a simple guess based on studies that show that well more than half of people believe that they are above average. So I guess it is a little educated. My guess is that due to cognitive biases (both positive and negative) that people would expect that what they were getting is less than average more often than more than average because they subconsciously expect every time to be like that one time where there was a bumper crop.

    In my case, every year is above average because (aside from last year) I make more honey every year than the previous year. It's my whole process of beekeeping. However, eventually I'm going to run out of new things to do and then it won't be so great.
    Solomon Parker, Parker Farms, ParkerFarms.biz
    11 Years Treatment-Free, ~25 Colony Baseline

  4. #44
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    Herrick, SD USA
    Posts
    4,223

    Default Re: How is your crop looking?

    Our family has kept bees in this area of South Dakota since the early 1950's and even with that historical data it is a bit subjective in trying to determine what constitutes an average year since any moving average or most any "yardstick" you might choose to use would show a steady downward trend as farming practices have changed. This year based on how things look at the moment will most likely be the poorest average we have had in the past 10 years but then that is still just a guess about halfway through our honey production season.
    Sol: I once saw a survey of licensed drivers that showed about 80% considered themselves better than average drivers. So there ya go.
    "People will generally accept facts as truth only if the facts agree with what they already believe."- Andy Rooney

  5. #45
    Join Date
    Jul 2012
    Location
    East Dorset, VT
    Posts
    31

    Default Re: How is your crop looking?

    Quote Originally Posted by Solomon Parker View Post
    In my case, every year is above average because (aside from last year) I make more honey every year than the previous year. It's my whole process of beekeeping. However, eventually I'm going to run out of new things to do and then it won't be so great.
    Solomon, I think we are talking average per hive so adding hives isn't a factor. How much honey are you getting per hive on average?

  6. #46
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Brasher Falls, NY, USA
    Posts
    26,106

    Default Re: How is your crop looking?

    When beekeepers talk about averages, we usually, in my experience, are talking about some variation of what the total crop divided b y the total number of colonies averages out to be, mathematically. I'm not sure what others are talking about.
    Mark Berninghausen "That which works, persists."

  7. #47
    Join Date
    Jul 2012
    Location
    East Dorset, VT
    Posts
    31

    Default Re: How is your crop looking?

    Quote Originally Posted by sqkcrk View Post
    When beekeepers talk about averages, we usually, in my experience, are talking about some variation of what the total crop divided b y the total number of colonies averages out to be, mathematically. I'm not sure what others are talking about.
    Yes, that is what I am talking about myself. Dividing harvest by number of hives. Am curious what people down south average compared to up here in the north. I have a few hundred pound hives already but the weaker ones were all ravaged for resources for nucs that I will overwinter so their numbers are very low. Probably 70 lbs average so far.

  8. #48
    Join Date
    Jul 2012
    Location
    East Dorset, VT
    Posts
    31

    Default Re: How is your crop looking?

    Quote Originally Posted by sqkcrk View Post
    When beekeepers talk about averages, we usually, in my experience, are talking about some variation of what the total crop divided b y the total number of colonies averages out to be, mathematically. I'm not sure what others are talking about.
    Yes, that is what I am talking about myself. Dividing harvest by number of hives. Am curious what people down south average compared to up here in the north. I have a few hundred pound hives already but the weaker ones were all ravaged for resources for nucs that I will overwinter so their numbers are very low. Probably 70 lbs average so far.

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