Re: What are the chances of catching my own swarm?
The bees also might sense that the queen is weak and ready to die and they are building supercedure cells, not swarm cells. Sometime the queen has it in her mind to leave no matter what you do though. She might not like the area, the hive, or the exposure.
That said, it's about 50/50 that you will catch your own swarm. Add LGO(in a small bag is best) and drawn frames if you can to the swarm catchers and it will help.
Disclaimer: I know enough to know I don't know anything yet.