Re: general question???
So they have a strong queen that came with the swarm correct? If that's the case, it seems she is a very dominant queen, and her bees are so loyal that they could care less about that other queen. It's a battle of pheromones at that point. If they aren't around the caged queen at all, then they aren't tending her, and she will likely starve to death. You may as well get rid of her. I'm surprise the loose queen hasn't taken the time to kill her too though. I wonder if she is still a virgin queen (the caged one) and maybe that is affecting the pheromone she puts off.
I don't think the balling means they will swarm, I think it means they are cold. If the weather is to stay cool for you, you should put in a leader board to keep the hive box smaller to retain heat from the cluster. Don't open the hive if it is rainy, and I wouldn't do it if the outside temp is below 60 degrees. If you must, be quick. I'd recommend building a ledge near the entrance so you can mount a board feeder from the outside. Here is a video on how I designed my hive to use the external feeder. Narrated by yours truly: http://youtu.be/2e9WCWBOMsA
There is a special section on the forums dedicated to TBH beekeeping. Get on there and do some reading. I'm astonished at how helpful beekeepers are. I much prefer reading these forums over the diesel truck forums. Those are just wasted with arguments about Ford vs Dodge vs Chevy. Good luck and let us know how it goes!
One package to 4 hives in 3 months. After 12 months I'm over a dozen hives and growing. Head over heels for bees!!!