I think that you are exactly correct. I learned a long time ago that on the occasional years that the bees fill a honey super in fall, if I take much of it, it weakens them too much to overwinter successfully.
Your idea of reversing in late summer, letting them fill the upper deep or shallow with fall honey might work well for me. It should make checkerboarding the next spring easy. I'll be doing a lot of experimenting this year.




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