And I'll add that the stuff that's in a water shortage area will likely still get watered as there are alot of other crops that will dry up before these guys just ditch permanent plantings.1/3 of the almond acreage is in water shortage areas, that means 2/3 of it is good.
Everyone that pays attention here knows that rain comes in around seven year cycles and we're about due. I don't think we'll see to many growers throwing in the towel unless it's on an orchard that needed to come out anyway. These guys aren't stupid. Most of them are keenly aware that they are farming a desert...alot of time is spent thinking water and backup-plan even in good times.