Bulk honey prices and market outlook

[irwin harlton]

honey offerings in Canada continue to fall, we are are at1.40......I think very little will move at this low balling price, but this will certainly lower these buyers average cost if any is sold at all.
Canadian honey imports for 2009 are up 22% from 2008 ,up to August 2009..... so apparently they got lots of foreign honey to sell,blend

From Bee Culture magazine ,nov. 2009,November price report and 2009 crop estimate.

"This will undoubtedly lead to increases in imports to meet demand, and, with available overall global honey on hand at best average,there will be some probably dramatic price increases.
If you have honey in a tank somewhere this Fall...guard it carefully and sell it cautiously."

Canadian honey broker is quoted as saying that there is so much cheap ,adulterated,imported honey on the US east coast, packed into warehouses that the entire US East coast has sunk and it may actually disappear into the ocean.......prices are reflecting this

"why slander the hand that feeds irwin sioux is the largest most respectable packer in the world."
I was not slandering, the sale of cheap Chinese honey by Sue,it benefits Sue bee's bottom line, their members and most important their customers,this honey is probably going into their industrial market and giving their competition a good run for their money in this market.This industrial market is a major influence on all prices and sets the price for the packed market and the price you and I will receive for our product. Sue selling,Why not, everybody else is doing it, but it clearly will be "good " Chinese honey. Sue has been assessing the Canadian honey market for whats available for export

[irwin harlton]

(img)http://s43.photobucket.com/albums/e3...oney_chart.png)(img)


world honey supply is on a slippery downward slope

Yes feLLow beekeepers ,we have surpassed Peak HONEY world production,just like peak oil, the only place for prices to go, are up and prices will be better than just good.


Q : What happened to Brazil's honey production as a result of the introduction of killer bees?

Brazil went from fourth in world honey production to twenty-seventh by the early 1990's.

[jean-marc]

We have passed peak honey production, well maybe , maybe not. I'm wondering how Mr or Mrs. Hubbard came up with the graph? At this point I'm not convinced.

Brazil is trying to gear up so is India and a whole bunch of other countries. As prices rise then countries that have a low yearly average all of a sudden see beekeeping as profitable/attractive.

Jean-Marc

[mike farms]

irwin most of the chinese honey in america is used for industrial purposes that why no one really cares too much....are you going to go up against General Mills, Kraft Foods and all the deep pockets that Sioux is selling to. Take all of Suiox honey off the shelfs at your local supermarket and send it to applica gauranteed almost all of it will not pass.....this is the world we live in. Money rules all!

[irwin harlton]

Jean Marc, I hoping the prices coming in the new year will make you a believer......if someone is paying a 1.30 for pepper, what SHOULD white honey be selling for...Not a 1.40, I thinks, but I have to agree higher prices will bring higher production from these countries... and as usual reduced world prices.

In the mean time we gotta play the packers game....... I was just pointing out that world supply has dropped, it is way short of demand in the Peak Honey theory.Dropping or suppressing prices will only lead to a overly higher price down the road.This latest 1.40 price is a ploy to make their next offer look real attractive and they didn't get enought at 1.60 so they use the old we are in control drop the price play.

Not really understanding these new people at Billy Buzz, they definitely don't have the same banker the last owner had, he bought honey in vast quantities and sold it, packed and bulk,all over the world,not just Canada.Beemaid has squeezed them in wally world( rarely on my local shelf) and I wonder where else, their pack is darker than the competitions and suffers granulation problems I hear.New packing plant problems maybe?

[jean-marc]

I'm pretty sure we will bew seeing higher prices in the new year. It's interesting to see the lower prives now. My feeling was many beekeepers had not sold at 1.60, hoping to get more. I don't think they'll be getting much at $1.40.

Has world honey production dropped? I'm not sure. India and brazil are gearing up so is Vietnam. I'm not convinced that the world honey production has peaked. That would mean that world honey production has dropped off in the last few years. Any recent drop off in total world honey production could be explained by odd weather patterns.

At today's honey price I don't too many people will get very excited. I can't really imagine the guy with 1000 hives going to 2000, nor can I foresee someone with 2000 going say to 5000. The prices are too unstable and usually too low from a producres point of view. I can see guys replacing some older stuff but not really gearing up. On the other hand if prices were double what they are today and if producers kinda knew that prices would stay there for 4-5 years then there would be a lot of incentive to produce honey. I can almost guarantee that if those conditions existed than total world honey production would increase. There would be incentive to produce. From where I sit it doesn't seem to exist today.

Jean-Marc

[knorm]

Hey guys - I think this $1.40/# talk is not realistic. I just had offers this week for $1.45 and $1.55 can (delayed payment) for white honey picked up, and the buyers are calling me. I think at least some of the packers are getting short of honey.

[irwin harlton]

The only thing unrealistic was the 1.40 offer to buy, being made at the Alberta beekeepers convention.........funny the price is going up......none or very little was sold at this low end offer, as the offer did not exist for long

Re: Peak honey or is it Peak cheap honey.The latest world honey production figures, that I can find are for 2004


•2004 Honey world production is about 1.3 million tons. Six countries concentrate 50% of the total. In the last decade, there has been a slightly growing tendency. Asia is the main producing continent, followed by Europe and America in the third place.

Continent % Tons
Africa 11,2
Central America and Carib 1,2
South America 10,0
North America 13,2
Asia 38,3
Europe 23,3
Oceania 2,7


•2004 World exports are around 350 thousand tons. Argentina participates with just over 20% of the total, taking the second place as exporter, after China, and escorted by Mexico, which is in the third place. Argentina competes with China for the price and with Mexico for the quality. .noted that the imported honey coming to Canada and USA comes from a wider range of countries , usually different from year to year

Production has dropped in USA for last 10 years.Argentina's 2008-2009 crop was down 30%. There were droughts in China and Mexico in 2009,dropping production in both countries. World honey production especially if you consider production in the largest honey exporting countries has to be down, but by how much?

A little history from 1997 -98

U.S. honey production in 1998 from producers with five or more colonies totaled 220 million pounds, up 12% from 1997. There were 2.63 million colonies producing honey in 1998, up slightly from 1997. Yield per colony averaged 83.7 pounds, up 9 pounds from the 74.7 pound average for 1997. Prices for the 1998 crop averaged 65.5 cents per pound, down 13% from 75.2 cents in 1997.

Historically, beekeepers have produced honey that was graded and priced at the market. Producers knew the attributes that the grading system used, and provided samples to potential buyers. Basically, producers always had to take the price offered, and most marketing decisions centered on when in a crop production cycle to sell. Supply and demand were seen as driving the prices, and producers recognized that periods of high supply would likely lower prices and low supply would likely raise prices. Moreover, it was assumed that some relationship existed between the price of the commodity and the price the consumer paid at the retail level.

Over the past two decades honey has become a global commodity, and regional or even national supply fluctuations no longer drive the market. In addition, the relationship between the commodity price of honey and the retail price of honey has become very small. In early 1999, the spread between the retail price of honey and the commodity price of honey became historically large. At the same time, the demand for honey in the U.S. market increased. This same paradox has affected many other farm commodities. Some producers have tried to adjust to the market by cutting costs and increasing volume. Another approach to marketing is to seek niche markets. The theory is that one can find attributes for the commodity that will make it specific, and that consumers will pay more for those attributes. For honey these can include creamed honey products, comb honey, marketing honey from specific floral sources, value-added products, and packaging that identifies the product with a specific region.

As honey packers become fewer and larger and honey trade on a global scale increases, regional and national supply and demand may become even less useful in predicting market prices. Producing bulk honey, offering it for sale and accepting the price offered is currently not providing an adequate return to producers. Most beekeepers enjoy working with their bees but do not enjoy marketing. Unfortunately for those beekeepers, all indicators point to creative marketing as the best opportunity to enhance profitability in the new millennium.

I think at today's prices for bulk honey there is a huge difference( 1.50 verses 5.00) between the bulk price and the shelf price ( good opportunity here to pack your own and make good money, IF YOU HAVE THE MARKET) and currently a vary low price paid for industrial or bakery trade honey....this industrial market (SUPPLIED BY LARGE PACKERS) price must rise and lift the bulk white honey price with it

[suttonbeeman]

While I still have honey to pack and sell to my retail customers I sold the last of my honey that I will sell bulk this week. 70 buckets @ 2.25/lb in their bucket.

[John Smith]

Congratulation to you Mr. Suttonbeeman!

If profit is the objective, produce less, retail more!

Cheers,

JohnS

[irwin harlton]

Argentina outlook not good




From http://www.apitrack.com/index_en_open.htm

Google translation( not the best)


Between January and October 2009, local honey exports fell 21%, although the value of products shipped increased 8%, with 45,964 tonnes shipped au $ s 2739 each. Also according to data from Senasa same period in 2008, had dispatched 58,392 tonnes by 2542 u $ s each.

In fact, the next downhill since 2005, the year the country shipped more volume: 105,940 tons. The following year was 99,208 in 2007 80,437, and last year totaled 69,086 tons.

According to Sebastian Muñoz, coordinator of the Commission Beekeeping Federation Agraria Argentina, the debacle is influenced by several factors. Is that the drought came in a context of huge decline in yields, because the bee leaves the hand of livestock (bees feed on the flowers in the pastoral livestock Yuyito), but the estate is run every time farther north, displaced by soybean and glyphosate.

Without pollen, bees produce less honey, which is their food, and supplement required, which reduces quality. "Today the business is not viable: we give up 15 to 20 kilos, and 17 to 18 kilos of cost. Calculate, because there are no official statistics, nearly 7,000 producers of honey (about 20% of those enrolled in the Renap) left activity, and the hives were lost, "said Munoz.

To make matters worse, for fear of taxation, the vast majority of beekeepers do not enroll in the Renap. Munoz estimated that in total there must be some 90,000 beekeepers in the country (three times the bleached), and this, together with the disappearance of official statistics from the conflict with the field, not aid diagnosis or to the solution. "In Santa Fe when the emergency was declared, appeared to recover from all sides, all had hives," criticized.

Above, the change of status from the Agriculture Ministry of Secretariat left the sector without partners to discuss the strategic plan, which is financed with 50% of export taxes (5% for honey and 10% for fractional the bulk product, as will the vast majority). "The $ 22 million for the strategic plan are supposedly in the bank, but the field bee is no longer under the Food. The industry is not represented in the Ministry, do not know whom to talk."

For the specialist, could be generated, for example, a government project to split, thereby increasing value added, and also help the younger ones, who do not have the capital to fill nas move north with the cows.

(Cuenca Rural)

[John Smith]

My comments on this paragraph in the apitrak report:

“””””””””To make matters worse, for fear of taxation, the vast majority of beekeepers do not enroll in the Renap. Munoz estimated that in total there must be some 90,000 beekeepers in the country (three times the bleached), and this, together with the disappearance of official statistics from the conflict....................”””””””””

Beekeepers and fishermen, belong in the Hunters' and Gatherers' classification, as they are the foundation stones of any economy. Farmers and Graziers are in the next layer of bricks in the edifice known as civilization. Gold miners are in that mortar there somewhere too.

Governments of all eras and persuasions have drawn a line above a certain level of commerce and declared all above that line as taxable, all below that line exempt. For instance, in Australia, babysitting is not considered a taxable income. Neither is gold mining.

So it isn’t the size of the industry, nor is it the moral or human value of it, it is more about the impossibility of controlling, policing and defining. Some goods and services are just so primary they defy governance. A tax on air, or if you like, an emission trading scheme, may also fit in there somewhere. How do we prove a person actually breathed in and out? And was it as halitosis or flatulence?

If two thirds of Argentina’s beekeepers are below the tax line through whatever contrivance, wouldn’t you think the government there would go ahead and declare the business tax exempt? Perhaps there is some pressure on the industry as a result of the economic turmoil of the past decade in Argentina? Are the beekeepers under pressure to get bleached? And is the government withholding their own statistics in an effort to avoid confronting this issue?

I read that ‘bleached’ word to be a corruption in the translation. Perhaps it should read ‘audited.’ In the Spanish, it might have been sanitised, or cleaned. I think those beekeepers simply have failed to get 'registered.' In Australia we use the term, Seasonally Adjusted. In other words the raw data has been groomed up a bit to simplify it and put the desired spin on the conclusion. But when we know the official data would belie our intended conclusions, we like to use estimates, and expert assessments.

When governments everywhere get serious about promoting any activity like beekeeping, their best move would be to declare it tax exempt. But, no, so far they only want to hand out pallatives at their own discretion. This always fails in the long run, especially with the primary industries, as they are the ones underpinning the whole edifice of society. The fall of the USSR being a current example of this failure. So the more we give the beekeepers in handouts, the more we have to take off them next week to cover the loss in transit of the cash. In other words, the activity is not sustainable. Simply too much cash is lost to ‘administration.’

Charities and tax exempt foundations are required to spend a minimum of 6% of their intake doing the actual job mentioned in their charter. Unfortunately governments are under no such obligation. If governments spent 1% of what they take in looking after the edifice of civilization, especially the very foundation stones, beekeepers and fishermen would be the richest people in the system.

The cumulative effect of ignoring these issues only creates a bigger correction when it does come. Gold is at the moment highlighting that phenomenon.

Commercial Fishermen are under enormous pressure now for the simple reason of overpopulation of the human and depletion of the ocean’s fish. A situation like that is not easy to fix. However, honey production in the overall sense has unknown limits, given the correct encouragement. More honey remains in the forest than what is taken out, as all beekeepers understand. It is only the way we manage the issue that limits how much honey we can produce. And the more primal the honey source, the more sustainable it is.

If honey were tax exempt in more ways, especially ones that encouraged big business to participate in the industry, if the general public were encouraged to value honey, and if honey were to be lifted to its rightful level on our priority list, there need never be a shortage again. Unfortunately this easy a result does not exist with ocean fish and fresh water for agriculture. Honey is as transportable as gold is, nearly as time proof, and a hundred times more valuable for food and health, but no, mankind prefer to develop substitutes and imitations, and thereby limits the potential of the entire edifice of civilization. Everything must be cheap. Give us bargains. To hell with tomorrow.

Honey production is tax exempt in China although I do not know just how this is brought about. Oh that Western Cultures were so wise!

However, in the more immediate sense, the longer we postpone a paradigm shift in these attitudes we apply to honey, the stronger will be the wave that ushers it in. That paradigm shift will come about eventually. It could be brought about by a positive move; it could be brought about by a tragedy for our civilization. Only time will tell.

No economic advantage for honey, no pollination. No pollination, no abundance of food. No abundance of food, no big cities. No big cities, no civilization. We will be back to the hunting and gathering stage real quick! Well, the survivors, that is.

Happy Beekeeping!

JohnS

[Bens-Bees]

No economic advantage for honey, no pollination. No pollination, no abundance of food. No abundance of food, no big cities. No big cities, no civilization. We will be back to the hunting and gathering stage real quick! Well, the survivors, that is.

Well there is still the economic advantage of pollination contracts. Although honey production has traditionally always been the backbone of beekeeping economics, I think our business is changing to the point that eventually as much as 80% of our revenue might come from pollination.

[alpha6]

As long as the packers keep importing more and more honey and keeping the price low for US honey producers I think the only way commercial guys can cover their costs is through pollination. That is the problem is that the price of honey is kept low by importing cheap, crap honey from who knows where and the packers and those rats at the National Honey Board who are in bed with them don't care if it is tainted honey...it's about money not quality. So until we institute standards throughout the US and really go after those crooks who are selling the swill to the American people I don't see things changing much.

Ok...rant over.

[Bens-Bees]

We could just adapt to the changing market conditions.

[123456]

Pollenation isn't an option here. I went from 1600 hives and depending on whatever the packers would offer me to 500 hives and selling my crop for $2.75 lb (cough, cough, CASH, cough). Lets face it, beekeeping is one of the very few industries where there is little or no effort from the producers to marketing their product.
Personally, I'm not willing to let the tail wag this dog.

[Birds&Bees]

until we institute standards throughout the US and really go after those crooks who are selling the swill to the American people I don't see things changing much.

The key word is "we", it certainly won't be government agencies such as the USDA or the FDA, these departments are staffed by former members of the food industries they are supposed to regulate, essentially large food companies can now regulate themselves as they see fit through the veil of government regulatory agencies, giving the consuming population the illusion that the food they are purchasing is safe and healthy. We need to educate the consumers about the food they are buying. The honey market will only change with consumer demand. If they want cheap, they'll get adulterated honey, if they want quality, they'll open their wallets.

[JohnLaurino]

To Birds&Bees: <added by mod>

This is the very TRUE. We know efforts are being made in various fronts, including official ones and this may take years and even so results may be not sufficient nor effective. The key to fight the assembled sweeteners sourcing is to include the quality of the honeys in the public agenda.

this needs to be done very carefully otherwise it may damage the whole industry , bad and good companies. #challenge.

[irwin harlton]

Not only does the ACTUAL shear volume of this swill kick down and hold back the price of good honey ,I think some buyers are stating there is a lot more swill around then there actually is, ..............funny how the price is stagnated and not much difference between all those packers......but then the import figures for rice syrup ,ultra filtered,packers blend swill do not match what is reportedly being told to us to exist in warehouses, perhaps a new circumvention is being used and hasn't surfaced yet.....this I doubt.

Canadian honey imports for 2009 are up 26.3% over 2008 up till Oct 1,2009, a total of
$14,561,583 ,VALUED IN CANADIAN DOLLARS,from a total of 53 different countries.

Don't know what that dollar figure would be in lbs but it would be in excess of 10M lbs,if average price was 1.40 /lb... somewhere around 1/5 up to 1/4 of Canadian production for 09.I am sure a lot of the imports are less than 1.40/lb so the poundage goes up accordingly

Stats available at http://www.ic.gc.ca/sc_mrkti/tdst/td...=962115865#tag

keyword search or code is 0409 honey natural

Because Canada is A NET EXPORTER OF HONEY( we produce more than we consume) FOR EVERY LB WE IMPORT WE MUST EXPORT THAT MUCH MORE

[Wee3Bees]

We have talked and talked and talked (or written and written and written) about why honey prices should be higher and that they ought to go higher in 2010. The market is set by the packers.

Let's just revolt and 1) not sell any honey until the packers beg us to buy it from us at $3 a pound (okay, I couldn't hold on to my honey without selling it either; I'm not wealthy or a bank), or 2) spread propaganda around that says so and so just sold his/her honey for $2.25 a pound and the packer was willing to go as high as $2.50+ in the next 3 months...

Maybe if we start brainwashing people into thinking that prices are $2.50 per pound in the drum, then they will start believing it (perception is reality).

Or, I just thought of a number 3) producers can collectively hire a hypnotist (sp?) to go around North America hypnotizing all of the packers to start buying honey at $2.50 per pound for resale...then $2.75, then $3.00 per pound, etc.

Then we can all chip in and buy an island, like, say, Australia and enjoy retirement!