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Bulk honey prices and market outlook

824K views 1K replies 169 participants last post by  The Honey Householder 
#1 · (Edited by Moderator)
Deflation , then inflation and currently a whole bunch of de-leaverageing going on in this crazy economy, which I hear from the majority with crystal balls, that is only going to get worse as a recession or a depression .
Heard some packers had dropped their offering prices......... hadn't noticed any downward pricing going on the store shelf's,to the contrary , prices were actually going up there.
A Canadian honey broker recently had a offer out for 1.50 Canadian,picked up in your yard, drums lost , for 10 loads, alot of phone calls later the order was filled and she is working on another order for the same price,I hear. Canadian dollar was trading around 1.25 US. That may be GOOD PRICE at present market conditions........ but I doubt it.I don't think supply and demand have entered the big picture yet.Other Current Canadian offers were 1.40. UK honey is selling at up to £2.30 per pound in BULK- source Bee -L.
Maybe that supply and demand won't enter the pic if the packers get there way.

I must remind myself that honey is not one of those necessity foods like bread and milk and that I don't need to be quite as greedy as some of those wall street folks
 
#277 ·
I went back over my books to see what the 2000 crop paid. I had two semi loads that sold for $.62 a pound for wht. honey.
The US is in a big honey shortage right now. If you are a producer in the US, you are the one setting the prices. I only produced 49 ton this year, which is a short corp for me. The 2009 crop is a thing of the past for me. The packers didn't like my prices but they paid them. I had to hear how they couldn't make anything this year because of the high price of honey. They was just trying to keep there customers. And I'm just one selling my crop to stay in business each year. It's OK that the producer make out some years too. If it wasn't for the producer producing honey, the packers wouldn't have anything to pack. And if it was for you packer packing and selling our honey we would need to produce it.
I can't wait to see what 2010 crop is going bring. I just hope 2009 wasn't the peek year.
 
#278 ·
I can't see any reason why the 2010 crop should fetch any thing less than the 2009 one is fetching.

Those poor packers (oh dear, I'm out of tissues to wipe my eyes with) would do better to stop crying about not making any money and start selling honey at prices they too can benefit from. If they can't do that, they might as well go broke as far as I am concerned. They are not good for the industry, nor for me. Anyone who can't sell honey in today's marketplace is not a salesman, he is a supplier only.

My prediction is though, that by the time 2010 is over, everyone will be wishing they had held over the 2009 crop, or part thereof anyway.

The Eastern States of Australia are experiencing drought like you wouldn't believe. Honey flows are just not happening, well, maybe one day per week, but my bees are living day to day, week to week. We get an hour or two of spring every day as the weather goes from frost to fierce dry wind and piercing hot sun. In the evening, we may get another little touch of spring, but there are less bees alive then.

Meanwhile, the retail market's awareness of honey continues to expand. It is only the people within the industry who refuse to change their rhetoric! Bad Luck for them!

Cheers,

JohnS
 
#279 ·
Just checking on the honey price. I've had packers call me in the past two days looking for honey. I know when the packers start calling the price is getting ready to go up. I only wish I still had a load of honey to sell. The load quotes was above $1.50+. Which for me I sold everything sofar this year early for $1.65 an up, to the smaller guys. I think the shorage is starting to show.
 
#283 ·
#284 ·
So what's the current market price? I think there is not much movement of honey in Canada. The US currency has softened so I think that US buyers are hesitating to purchase Canadian honey as it costs them more. The longer they wait though, the less honey there is, the more price goes up.

The other side of that coin is the incentive for cheating increases. So what will the cheating chinese rascals come up with next?

Interestingly Kim Flottum points out that Europe is now purchasing all kinds of chinese honey. He questions the residue issue and doubts that chinese beekeeping practises have changed to the point where residues would not be an issue I would reply that residue issues diminish with many packers as the price diminishes.

Jean-Marc
 
#285 ·
So what will the cheating chinese rascals come up with next?
Jean-Marc
This isn't a "Chinese" problem. It is a problem with some U.S. (maybe Canadian as well?) packers. If they were really interested in policing tainted honey imports, circumvented honey or mislabeled "honey blends", instead of colluding with them, there would be no market.
I suspect the honest beekeepers, importers and packers in any country are appalled by the bottom dwellers amongst them and find competing on an uneven playing field increasingly frustrating.
Sheri
 
#287 ·
Oh, almost forgot! A local beek was offered $1.68 for half a load of white, by a medium large packer. Who knows, maybe prices will start reflecting the actual supply situation for a change. Maybe this is the year we pay down the trucks, update that old equipment and buy a new Swinger. :applause:
Sheri
 
#289 ·
This year has been a disaster in various important honey sourcing countries, it is unlike that such horrible crops will repeat next year. At the same time the economic situation is still far from a comfort zone thus i believe there are chances to declining prices from March to September 2010. In Brazil we have an overall production of app 38,000 tons (2009 estimative) for a domestic consumption of app 12,000 tons. I think brazilian output will continue growing next year what will certainly help to mitigate the supply shortage.
 
#290 ·
JohnLaurino, welcome to the board!
Yes, the funny honey is a nightmare but not if packers would refuse to buy it.....honest beekeepers, packers and importers/exporters should all be yelling for better policing and higher penalties. Labeling sugar as honey is fraud afterall.
I see you are an exporter from Brazil. What is the current color profile of the Brazil honey you represent? With Brazil's huge growth potential, do you foresee that profile changing? I have heard there are diminishing amounts of white coming from both Brazil and Argentina, and much of that white will go to Europe.
Sheri
 
#291 ·
Most of brazilian honeys are LA, I would say 50%. 20% ELA, 15% white and 15% amber or darker. I think such distribution should stay stable in the next years. Brazil is set to be an exporter as large as Argentina, it is a question of 4 years or less. Argentina transformed huge areas into soy plantations in the past 3 years. This pushed beekeepers to areas where the climate is adverse to the bees almost every year (dry). I think Argentina will have hard time to export 85,000 tons of honey as they were used to do until couple of years ago.This year they did 45,000 or so. That's why white honey prices are skyrocketing. Because the exchange rate advantage the german traders took the majority of production from Argentina. Same happenned with mexican output. As crops in Canada and US were also very bad, US packers are just desperate for white honeys what explains current pricing.

About the funny honeys : the cost of circumventing is increasing every day. Sooner or later I think we will see more people being charged and behind the bars. Presently I see that honest importers and packers are still depressed because the industry chain is completely disrupted by the crooks.
 
#292 ·
Sheri I agree to a point that without a buyer there would be no market. I don't think it's the packers role to police what comes out of china.

The reason I point the finger at china is because a very large percentage of "funny honey" if not all of it comes that country. It is after all a communist country so I think much of the policing work should be done by them not american or canadian packers. I'm hoping that china is approching that point. With so many alarm bells going off in regards to chinese honey it must be getting increasingly difficult to operate for them to be able to access the US market. I'm pretty sure they have some other card up their sleeve, I can't really imagine what it is. In any event it'll be interesting to see when they play it.

Mr Laurino: Bom dia.

Jean-Marc
 
#293 ·
Sheri I agree to a point that without a buyer there would be no market. I don't think it's the packers role to police what comes out of china.
Well, I think it IS their job to police what they bottle. It is called quality control and they sure inspect our honey and run our honey through a battery of tests. If they don't know what is in the Chinese honey it is because they don't want to.

I agree that circumvented honey and the blends is a customs responsibility. Some countries are making it more difficult to use them to launder their dirty honey, and the blends labeling somehow needs to be addressed. But here again, with the "blends", are these sent in without an order? Does the customer pay what "honey" should go for? Perhaps a little less due to the ability to come in without the tariff? IMO, a lot of people are blinking at the right time.

Yes, I am hopeful that China will address these issues as well. Their credibility is being called into question and certainly can hurt their access to the markets through punitive actions such as implemented here in the US. Those actions turn into a bad joke when there is no enforcement, not only hurting us here, but the beekeepers, packers and exporters trying honestly to compete with these bad actors.
As for who should enforce the rules, usually that comes down to who is negatively impacted the worst from non-enforcement. So far, that has been first, the North American beekeepers, second the packers. But in truth, the world beekeeping industry is effected. Should China clean up it's act? Absolutely, but until they do, we need to cut them off at the borders.

I'm pretty sure they have some other card up their sleeve, I can't really imagine what it is. In any event it'll be interesting to see when they play it.Jean-Marc
Well, the fact they hold a dangerous amount of our debt doesn't help. The mitigating factor is we are their biggest customer, but the more we limit access to our consumers the less attractive that debt is.
Sheri
 
#294 ·
Argentina has planted a huge soybean crop, and they are getting rains. The cropping news is that the crop is off to a great start, and they are expecting rains through out the rest of the growing season due to the change in the ocean currents.

How will this affect the honey pricing here? Soybean will not give them a white honey, but will give them honey to sell.
 
#295 ·
The acreage that has been dedicated to growing soybeans previously had pasture. Apparentlyn the pasture had clover which produced more honey and whiter honey. This coupled with the drought dramatically reduced honey production.

I would think that after 3 years of drought, colony numbers must be down and the overall shape of hives should be poor. I would think that even with good conditions it will take them at least 1 season, perhaps more, to get back on their feet. 3 years of drought must rattle your nerves and break your confidence. They probably don't have a whole bunch of cash to throw at their bees.

Invariably the packers will say bumper crop or lots of honey in Argentina in an effort to suppress prices.

Jean-Marc
 
#296 ·
from http://www.apitrack.com/index_en_open.htm

2009-11-04

ARGENTINA- A LARGE AREA IS AFFECTED BY DROUGHT
Paradoxes of climate. While in Entre Rios producers rush to impulse the evacuation of cows due to the flooded of Parana river, in a vast region of the humid pampas are praying that the rains come. At least 40% of the Pampas region continues to face a situation of severe drought. Ten million hectares of arable land in the country are affected by the drought, a total of 30 million hectares. According to Cesar Rebelo, director of Climate and Water Institute of the National Institute of Agricultural Technology (INTA) Castelar, the most affected areas are in central, west, south and north of Cordoba, north of Santa Fe, Chaco, southern and western Buenos Aires, La Pampa and Santiago del Estero part.


2009-11-05

ARGENTINA- WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LAST QUARTER OF THE YEAR
Conducted by the National Weather Service.


2009-11-08

ARGENTINA- HIGH TEMPERATURES AND LACK OF RAINS, ARE DESTROYING THE CHACO PROVINCE APICULTURE
The journalist specializing Federico Petrera (s) interviews Mr. Carlos Villavicencio from Juan José Castelli in the province of Chaco, who says that due to the high temperatures melt the hives, besides the loss of live material by drought conditions, which has made the current crop fail



After our summer, and or what one might call the last 6 months of seasons, I wonder what is called normal or seasonal weather, it was 18 Celsius (64.4 degrees Fahrenheit )here yesterday.Bees were out flying, nothing for them to get, but every nice day now shortens the long winter
 
#298 ·
I've been visiting Brazil for the last 7 years and you are right Irwin, this is definitely where the next major competition will come from. The area where I've been at is mostly small and sideliners, in the Northeast is where a lot of the production comes from. Apparently they as a nation are gearing up. The bees are somewhat fiesty but in my limited time there I've not seen the horror stories you hear about.

I visited a research station that has been selecting for honey production good temperament and a lower swarming impulse. They've been doing that for 30 years now. Those bees were manageable from what I saw, but they were not harvesting honey. They had varroa but no medications were used to control them. I was able to stand beside 5 frame nucs in shorts with no veil and that was not possible when they started their breeding efforts.

I would hate to have to work those bees in 90 F weather with a high humidity factor, 2 sets of coveralls on, as a northener it would kill me and most others I know.

The good news is labour is relatively cheap, so is land and beehives. People are mostly kind and I think it would be a nice place to live.

Jean-Marc
 
#301 ·
Heard from a reliable source that a major Canadian buyer has dropped his offering from 1.60 to 1.50............... all part of the game packers play., this will make his 1.60price offering 2 months down the road loOk really good( so he thinks), HE must have got enough at 1.60 to last him awhile and enough to blend into his Argentina honey to lighten it up .Maybe he was getting a little flack from his US packer friends over his higher price offering .I have this feeling that gold is not the only commodity that is going to soar within the next couple of months,white honey is sometimes referred to as liquid gold when in short supply and its definitely in short supply
 
#305 ·
Honey Packers are not 'bad' people. They are having as much trouble making a living out of honey as we are. They just look bad to us because they are next up line and are the ones paying us.

The best and most workable reason why they put the price back down is that they know as well as we do that putting the price up will not produce any more honey, not in the short term. And if your bank was threatening to foreclose on you, would you be worrying about the long term state of the industry?

If they were really 'bad' people, we could get rid of them all (perhaps overnight), by simply refusing to sell them any honey for twelve months. The reality is, however, that the bank is breathing down our neck too, so we play the game. The glucose makers will do well filling in where we leave off, assuming they can get some wheat.

It is you guys who bother to market your own honey who are winning. The convenience of sending it all off on one truck to one packer is fatally habit forming, and those who persist with that one pay the price in the long term. Honey prices are great, at the retail level and the small wholesale level too.

There is not enough honey in the whole world to warrant anyone doing big advertising, promoting and really selling honey. There hasn't been enough to warrant that for maybe 30 years or more. It is only the public who can (AND ARE NOW) pushing the price up, so we the producers need to promote our own product in our own locality. We do that part better than anyone else, anyway, as the public love a good bee story.

All the people between us and the consumer in the supply chain will never promote honey, nor will they gain anything by trying to push the price up. They only eke out a living by increasing their volume, which is pretty hard to do these days (with real honey, anyway). However, they will all come on line as quick as a spreadsheet recalculates its bottom line once the demand is in place and the supply can match it.

Inflation being what it is, any product must keep pace with it or perish. Honey has had its moments to surge ahead and catch up with inflation and is overdue for another one. Inflation being what it is (again), makes it doubly hard, however, to actually keep up, as like osteoporosis, inflation eats away at the very bones of our civilizations until they collapse.

There are always those who contentedly cry "GREED" when we mention pushing the price up, and good luck to them. If they have supplemental income, a working wife or a good inheritance coming, they are OK. But to get more honey produced we need to consider the young fellow, with a pregnant wife, no farm, no truck, no hope. If he cannot get a few beehives and start capitalising a business, then the industry dies and civilization as we know it goes down with him.

So we must fight to keep pace (as much as humanly possible) with the constant failings of our currency. This present shortage is the best opportunity we have had for 30 or forty years to make that work. If we don't push up our prices now, who can say when again the opportunity will present itself?

The bee underpins the very foundations of our civilization. If saving the whale can attract billions of dollars, there must be plenty out there too for the bees. I want my part of it, and you deserve your part of it too. But as long as we are happy to lie down and die silently, there are plenty of others waiting to take over the microphone.

So we can change our perspective on honey packers by becoming one ourselves!

What are they doing about the price of honey? What are YOU doing about the price of honey? You had it first!

Cheers,

JohnS
 
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