Deflation , then inflation and currently a whole bunch of de-leaverageing going on in this crazy economy, which I hear from the majority with crystal balls, that is only going to get worse as a recession or a depression .
Heard some packers had dropped their offering prices......... hadn't noticed any downward pricing going on the store shelf's,to the contrary , prices were actually going up there.
A Canadian honey broker recently had a offer out for 1.50 Canadian,picked up in your yard, drums lost , for 10 loads, alot of phone calls later the order was filled and she is working on another order for the same price,I hear. Canadian dollar was trading around 1.25 US. That may be GOOD PRICE at present market conditions........ but I doubt it.I don't think supply and demand have entered the big picture yet.Other Current Canadian offers were 1.40. UK honey is selling at up to £2.30 per pound in BULK- source Bee -L.
Maybe that supply and demand won't enter the pic if the packers get there way.
I must remind myself that honey is not one of those necessity foods like bread and milk and that I don't need to be quite as greedy as some of those wall street folks
Take note those these are prices for processed honey, which I would take to mean bottled in what would actually be sold from the store shelf. Also, local markets vary from one place to another.
Packers are starting call.....average price of honey varies from.2.10 to 2.50....sold a load of amber for 2.50 a month ago....as of last week I was offered 2.25 and call before u sell...I talked to 3 different packers in the last 2 weeks....ect
Odem International is forward contracting 2014 Canadian honey crop at 2.25(WHITE) If anything has taught me anything about forward pricing in the honey market, it , the price will be 2.40 or 2.60 come fall, and if the price drops, well the contract will not be worth the paper its written on
I think all the major buyers are in a bit of a holding pattern on new crop pricing pending the outcome of the current crop. I heard a report of one major player floating the prospect of a $1.95 to $2.00 initial offering. I think the direction new pricing takes is just as dependent on how many producers are willing to sit tight if bids trend lower. Remember folks, honey keeps.
What I heard talked about was semi loads. That would be 70 some barrels per load. I don't sell honey in barrels. Sorry. And don't have my crop off yet, so I don't know how many buckets of honey I would have to sell, if I were to sell buckets.
National honey board saying $5 a pound in case for top quality starting off 2015 and head wholesale buyers trying to be cheap. Who wants to guess what price will be this year. I'm guessing a drop even though cost with be even.
I got a report of honey selling at $2.40/lb U.S. Seems awfully high. Not sure if source is accurate or reliable. This is for white honey in the drum. At that price this changes some of our income generating strategies. Any other reports out there?
What is the current price? We are likely going to be 15 to 20% short with the crop this year in the Southern states (too much rain all Spring). I'm guessing $2.25 to $2.30 per pound.
What is the current price? We are likely going to be 15 to 20% short with the crop this year in the Southern states (too much rain all Spring). I'm guessing $2.25 to $2.30 per pound.
I doubt if the price will go down. It appears that the flow of "funny honey" has been slowed. My guess is that we will begin to see an increase in domestic "funny honey" at these prices.
HONEY MARKET FOR THE MONTH OF MAY
, 2015
IN VOLUMES OF 10,000 POUNDS OR GREATER UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED
In the month were imported 55,777 tonnes (+ 18.8%) by a total of 15.8 million dollars (+ 14.3%) at an average price in dollars per ton of 3,515 (+ 4%). In the year were imported 51,184 tons (+ 17.1%) by a total of 179.6 million dollars (+ 19.6%) at an average price in dollars per ton of 3,509 (+ 2.1%). All percentage values refer to the same period last year. Please download the attached document.
It appears the honey market continues to grow,demand continues upwards
Don't forget about the capital required to buy a big honey crop.
If the price doubles the packer will need twice the money as previously required.
Bankers are reluctant to lend for such purposes especially for honey as its profit potential is almost non existent.
In this case the Packer's capital can only buy half the crop. So instead of being a hundred ton packer he is now a fifty ton packer. He just lost half his business to inflation.
The inflation/deflation cycles appear to be now out of control.
The only way to get fair value for your honey now is to retail it yourself or at least work it into a large number of small wholesale buyers.
Selling to many small wholesalers is a strategy to help reduce risk. 100 ton packers will remain 100 ton packers no matter the price of honey. He may not be able to purchase 100 ton at 1 go because of cash flow issues, but he will for sure try to keep the 100 ton going through his business. Beekeepers may have to wait a little longer for the money. Packers work on margin so 30% margin on a $10,000 order is better than 30% on an order of $5000. Packers always cry that there is resistance from buyers when prices increase. The truth is there is not enough honey around to meet the demand. I suppose new products are using honey and the natural aspect of honey is creating that demand. Other truth is packers make more money on higher priced honey, they use the formula of cost plus margin.
That's all good (on paper) but anyone who thinks they are inflation proof is at risk of a nasty shock.
Those persons who are inflation proof mostly live In Caves and mud houses.
Have you worked out yet just where half of that hypothetical packer's capital went?
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