Bulk honey prices and market outlook

[Wee3Bees]

I'm liking it as I have 13 drums of extra light amber and 8 drums of white left.

Anyone out there thinking that the year 2010 will usher in $2 per pound of ELA? I will go out on a limb and speculate that we will see that kind of price somewhere in 2010.

[Wee3Bees]

BTW my wife got a quote from one of the largest producers in the USA last week for $1.60 per pound of clover. Would that be ELA or white? I don't really see any clover honey down here... at least as a monocrop.

[irwin harlton]

"So, this year our predictions are that 2.223 million colonies (down from last year because of colony losses to colony collapse disorder and last year’s poor honey crop) will produce 53.7 pounds of honey each, for a total of 119.37 million pounds of U. S. produced honey ... this is, friends, the worst honey crop ever. EVER!"

Read more: http://www.thedailygreen.com/environ...#ixzz0VXApIIPX

[jean-marc]

So what's the current market price? I think there is not much movement of honey in Canada. The US currency has softened so I think that US buyers are hesitating to purchase Canadian honey as it costs them more. The longer they wait though, the less honey there is, the more price goes up.

The other side of that coin is the incentive for cheating increases. So what will the cheating chinese rascals come up with next?

Interestingly Kim Flottum points out that Europe is now purchasing all kinds of chinese honey. He questions the residue issue and doubts that chinese beekeeping practises have changed to the point where residues would not be an issue I would reply that residue issues diminish with many packers as the price diminishes.

Jean-Marc

[JohnK and Sheri]

So what will the cheating chinese rascals come up with next?
Jean-Marc

This isn't a "Chinese" problem. It is a problem with some U.S. (maybe Canadian as well?) packers. If they were really interested in policing tainted honey imports, circumvented honey or mislabeled "honey blends", instead of colluding with them, there would be no market.
I suspect the honest beekeepers, importers and packers in any country are appalled by the bottom dwellers amongst them and find competing on an uneven playing field increasingly frustrating.
Sheri

[suttonbeeman]

well said sherri!

[JohnK and Sheri]

Oh, almost forgot! A local beek was offered $1.68 for half a load of white, by a medium large packer. Who knows, maybe prices will start reflecting the actual supply situation for a change. Maybe this is the year we pay down the trucks, update that old equipment and buy a new Swinger.
Sheri

[JohnLaurino]

This isn't a "Chinese" problem. It is a problem with some U.S. (maybe Canadian as well?) packers. If they were really interested in policing tainted honey imports, circumvented honey or mislabeled "honey blends", instead of colluding with them, there would be no market.
I suspect the honest beekeepers, importers and packers in any country are appalled by the bottom dwellers amongst them and find competing on an uneven playing field increasingly frustrating.
Sheri

chinese "funny" honey is a nightmare for anyone serious about selling genuine honeys. I think most of you already know but few days ago we had a chinese executive pleading guilty in a fraud/circumvention case from Chicago, still a consequence of Alfred Wolf's process : http://www.chicagotribune.com/busine...tory?track=rss

[JohnLaurino]

This year has been a disaster in various important honey sourcing countries, it is unlike that such horrible crops will repeat next year. At the same time the economic situation is still far from a comfort zone thus i believe there are chances to declining prices from March to September 2010. In Brazil we have an overall production of app 38,000 tons (2009 estimative) for a domestic consumption of app 12,000 tons. I think brazilian output will continue growing next year what will certainly help to mitigate the supply shortage.

[JohnK and Sheri]

JohnLaurino, welcome to the board!
Yes, the funny honey is a nightmare but not if packers would refuse to buy it.....honest beekeepers, packers and importers/exporters should all be yelling for better policing and higher penalties. Labeling sugar as honey is fraud afterall.
I see you are an exporter from Brazil. What is the current color profile of the Brazil honey you represent? With Brazil's huge growth potential, do you foresee that profile changing? I have heard there are diminishing amounts of white coming from both Brazil and Argentina, and much of that white will go to Europe.
Sheri

[JohnLaurino]

Most of brazilian honeys are LA, I would say 50%. 20% ELA, 15% white and 15% amber or darker. I think such distribution should stay stable in the next years. Brazil is set to be an exporter as large as Argentina, it is a question of 4 years or less. Argentina transformed huge areas into soy plantations in the past 3 years. This pushed beekeepers to areas where the climate is adverse to the bees almost every year (dry). I think Argentina will have hard time to export 85,000 tons of honey as they were used to do until couple of years ago.This year they did 45,000 or so. That's why white honey prices are skyrocketing. Because the exchange rate advantage the german traders took the majority of production from Argentina. Same happenned with mexican output. As crops in Canada and US were also very bad, US packers are just desperate for white honeys what explains current pricing.

About the funny honeys : the cost of circumventing is increasing every day. Sooner or later I think we will see more people being charged and behind the bars. Presently I see that honest importers and packers are still depressed because the industry chain is completely disrupted by the crooks.

[jean-marc]

Sheri I agree to a point that without a buyer there would be no market. I don't think it's the packers role to police what comes out of china.

The reason I point the finger at china is because a very large percentage of "funny honey" if not all of it comes that country. It is after all a communist country so I think much of the policing work should be done by them not american or canadian packers. I'm hoping that china is approching that point. With so many alarm bells going off in regards to chinese honey it must be getting increasingly difficult to operate for them to be able to access the US market. I'm pretty sure they have some other card up their sleeve, I can't really imagine what it is. In any event it'll be interesting to see when they play it.

Mr Laurino: Bom dia.

Jean-Marc

[JohnK and Sheri]

Sheri I agree to a point that without a buyer there would be no market. I don't think it's the packers role to police what comes out of china.

Well, I think it IS their job to police what they bottle. It is called quality control and they sure inspect our honey and run our honey through a battery of tests. If they don't know what is in the Chinese honey it is because they don't want to.

I agree that circumvented honey and the blends is a customs responsibility. Some countries are making it more difficult to use them to launder their dirty honey, and the blends labeling somehow needs to be addressed. But here again, with the "blends", are these sent in without an order? Does the customer pay what "honey" should go for? Perhaps a little less due to the ability to come in without the tariff? IMO, a lot of people are blinking at the right time.

Yes, I am hopeful that China will address these issues as well. Their credibility is being called into question and certainly can hurt their access to the markets through punitive actions such as implemented here in the US. Those actions turn into a bad joke when there is no enforcement, not only hurting us here, but the beekeepers, packers and exporters trying honestly to compete with these bad actors.
As for who should enforce the rules, usually that comes down to who is negatively impacted the worst from non-enforcement. So far, that has been first, the North American beekeepers, second the packers. But in truth, the world beekeeping industry is effected. Should China clean up it's act? Absolutely, but until they do, we need to cut them off at the borders.

I'm pretty sure they have some other card up their sleeve, I can't really imagine what it is. In any event it'll be interesting to see when they play it.Jean-Marc

Well, the fact they hold a dangerous amount of our debt doesn't help. The mitigating factor is we are their biggest customer, but the more we limit access to our consumers the less attractive that debt is.
Sheri

[Ian]

Argentina has planted a huge soybean crop, and they are getting rains. The cropping news is that the crop is off to a great start, and they are expecting rains through out the rest of the growing season due to the change in the ocean currents.

How will this affect the honey pricing here? Soybean will not give them a white honey, but will give them honey to sell.

[jean-marc]

The acreage that has been dedicated to growing soybeans previously had pasture. Apparentlyn the pasture had clover which produced more honey and whiter honey. This coupled with the drought dramatically reduced honey production.

I would think that after 3 years of drought, colony numbers must be down and the overall shape of hives should be poor. I would think that even with good conditions it will take them at least 1 season, perhaps more, to get back on their feet. 3 years of drought must rattle your nerves and break your confidence. They probably don't have a whole bunch of cash to throw at their bees.

Invariably the packers will say bumper crop or lots of honey in Argentina in an effort to suppress prices.

Jean-Marc

[irwin harlton]

from http://www.apitrack.com/index_en_open.htm

2009-11-04

ARGENTINA- A LARGE AREA IS AFFECTED BY DROUGHT
Paradoxes of climate. While in Entre Rios producers rush to impulse the evacuation of cows due to the flooded of Parana river, in a vast region of the humid pampas are praying that the rains come. At least 40% of the Pampas region continues to face a situation of severe drought. Ten million hectares of arable land in the country are affected by the drought, a total of 30 million hectares. According to Cesar Rebelo, director of Climate and Water Institute of the National Institute of Agricultural Technology (INTA) Castelar, the most affected areas are in central, west, south and north of Cordoba, north of Santa Fe, Chaco, southern and western Buenos Aires, La Pampa and Santiago del Estero part.


2009-11-05

ARGENTINA- WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LAST QUARTER OF THE YEAR
Conducted by the National Weather Service.


2009-11-08

ARGENTINA- HIGH TEMPERATURES AND LACK OF RAINS, ARE DESTROYING THE CHACO PROVINCE APICULTURE
The journalist specializing Federico Petrera (s) interviews Mr. Carlos Villavicencio from Juan José Castelli in the province of Chaco, who says that due to the high temperatures melt the hives, besides the loss of live material by drought conditions, which has made the current crop fail



After our summer, and or what one might call the last 6 months of seasons, I wonder what is called normal or seasonal weather, it was 18 Celsius (64.4 degrees Fahrenheit )here yesterday.Bees were out flying, nothing for them to get, but every nice day now shortens the long winter

[irwin harlton]

Argentina production doesn't bother me as much as the possible increase of honey production in Brazil,their subsidies and increasing production capability.....Eucalyptus and year round honey flows




http://www.docstoc.com/docs/13829070...Brazil-%282%29

[jean-marc]

I've been visiting Brazil for the last 7 years and you are right Irwin, this is definitely where the next major competition will come from. The area where I've been at is mostly small and sideliners, in the Northeast is where a lot of the production comes from. Apparently they as a nation are gearing up. The bees are somewhat fiesty but in my limited time there I've not seen the horror stories you hear about.

I visited a research station that has been selecting for honey production good temperament and a lower swarming impulse. They've been doing that for 30 years now. Those bees were manageable from what I saw, but they were not harvesting honey. They had varroa but no medications were used to control them. I was able to stand beside 5 frame nucs in shorts with no veil and that was not possible when they started their breeding efforts.

I would hate to have to work those bees in 90 F weather with a high humidity factor, 2 sets of coveralls on, as a northener it would kill me and most others I know.

The good news is labour is relatively cheap, so is land and beehives. People are mostly kind and I think it would be a nice place to live.

Jean-Marc

[ArtD]

http://www.chicagotribune.com/busine...tory?track=rss
Notice a $250k fine and maybe 5yrs for $4 million. Sounds like a deal to me.

[Bens-Bees]

Only if he manages to stay out of China. The Chinese govt. would probably execute him at this point (not for doing what he did, but for getting caught).