Bulk honey prices and market outlook

[irwin harlton]

Re. More news from Argentina,

Even if Argentina returns a big crop in 2010,I think it will be alot like the last crop, dark and not a alot of white, the country has changed from cattle to soybean .

Re Wee3Bees

Your price projections are right on......... if anything you could be on the low side, there is a shortage and the packers will have to pay to play.The Packer producer relationship....... now thats a whole new can of worms

[John Smith]

I believe each honey producer regardless of quantities must assess the price he/she feels content with (as a minimum) but better yet, what price would motivate him/her to invest more into added productivity, as that is the only price that will ultimately resolve the shortages problem (barring acts of God, sudden population or total economic collapse, meteor hit, etc.).

I believe honey is overdue for the best wave of my lifetime. Big waves are the result of faddism, and yes, Manuka is on a roll now and we tend to see that as an isolated event, which it isn't. In the minds of the rank and file, it is lifting ALL honey in a very positive way.

My lifelong involvement with the Health Food Industry gives me insights into faddism that not everyone recognises. But if you were involved with oat milling, you may remember the tremendous spike in oat bran prices when it was discovered to be helpful in managing cholesterol. Something like that may be happening soon to cinnamon powder (and bark). It may not have happened to coffee beans since the 19th century, but it happens to some foodstuff somewhere nearly every year.

It tends to happen to foodstuffs that are valueless (relatively speaking, like oat bran and Manuka Honey were), and it is a small percentage of the consuming public who create the interest, spread it around and later the general public and the food processing and manufacturing industries get into it, and the big wave emerges............ and crashes, of course, as waves of this nature are want to do.

Honey is certainly not to be seen as valueless, but has of recent decades been one of the least profitable products going, which tends to weaken the producing baseline. The percentage of people following the 'health food trend' continues to increase every year and the disposable incomes of large populations the world over has risen in relation to the price of honey (and many of those cultures value honey very highly).

The internet is giving millions of people access to research results that were previously ignored and/or suppressed by big organisations, and a ground swell of interest in honey as a super food is patently evident to me, although some tell me they see no such change.

I however, am busy trying to help create that change, so I am very sensitive to the level of interest that is out there. Large organisations the world over are having trouble these days keeping the lids on things, and are increasingly losing their ability to hold things like honey (and natural health philosophies) in safe confinement.

The Manuka Honey broke a pilot hole in the wall of prejudice that had kept honey confined (for say, 80 years?) and now we find myriad floral sources around the globe rising (with official sanction) to help satisfy this enormous demand for medicinal honey. The remaining wall is purely imaginary, or 'in the mind' and is crumbling rapidly (it is not a Real Barrier, as they have long ago disappeared, as in distance from source to market, infrastructure etc.) The historic view of honey is on our side. Every beekeeper should be aware that all honey delivers some benefit in the health sense, and he/she should be prepared to stand up and proclaim this fact also.

Toss in the interest created around pollination, the inevitable price rises in other sweeteners thanks to cereal and cane crop shortages, high demand for starches for ethanol production, an ever expanding population, the iniquitousness of inflation etc. and I can only conclude that the sky is the limit for the dollar value of honey. Its relative value to other super foods (and food generally) is the one most beneficial to producers, and if ever there was a time for it to happen, this must be it.

Nominating a maximum price would be foolishness (in my humble opinion). There are too many national currencies, and they bob up and down like corks in the surf too, but earlier on (around 2002), the price spiked out to more than double, and while some folk positively and emphatically state that such an event will never occur again, I fail to see any trend arising to support that notion. My call is “That little spike was simply a tracer bullet, fired in the preliminary stage.” The price of honey will soon break ALL records in dollar terms, and possibly in real terms too relative to other commodities. That previous spike was in the BUYER's offering price, not the PRODUCER's nominated price!

Sure, today's price is very welcome, and honey as money is perfect, so when one needs to convert from one currency (honey) to another (dollars) it is good value, but to me, it is nothing by comparison with what I foresee as looming in the not very distant future.

The world's largest buyers are sitting on their hands (and their pocketbook) clinging to the hope that some crop will turn up somewhere to save them. Leaders of large organisations are famous for leaving things rock along until it is too late! If that fails, which is looking increasingly likely, the Northern Hemisphere winter is looming, and with public demand increasing, what are they going to do? One of them somewhere will panic and start buying AT ANY PRICE, and having broken ranks with the "Brotherhood" will be the catalyst for a major chase for the available stocks. So go on, be a good beekeeper and ‘donate’ your honey to the cause, for the good of mankind. Or be like me, and sit back a little bit and wait for them to get really anxious (for the cause of my own survival and my kids' welfare).

Sure, honey substitutes will flourish too, but what about Manuka and Sidr and Jarrah and Ulmo and myriad other floral types that will be licensed in coming months? The same people who will dilute real honey with Glucose will dilute those very marketable medicinal honeys with some less well known honey which will be cheaper to buy, and at the end of the day where will all the honey come from? ................... Certainly not from the moon or from Antarctica.

The big question should read like this? Do I especially need to convert my best investment into dollars at this moment, and if so, then how many dollars is appropriate at this moment? How much will the market bear? Honey is edible gold and daily fixes are not far away!

Cheers, and happy marketing!

JohnS

[irwin harlton]

International Honey Market - Challenges and Opportunities



September 17, 2009

Ronald P. Phipps

President, CPNA International, Ltd.

Co-Chairman, Committee for the Promotion of Honey and Health1. Introduction



http://home.ezezine.com/1636/1636-20...3.archive.html


the game has started

[Wee3Bees]

Irwin,

Thanks for the link in your last post. That was and EXCELLENT article on honey. I'm going to save it in my files. Everyone needs to read it if they haven't (and start raising our prices 50% each year from now on)...

[irwin harlton]

Talked to Odem Internatioal this a.m. Elyse said there seems to be a unlimited supply of Chinese funny honey, ultrafiltered,the stuff that has the antibiotic's removed, its blended or adultrated with rice syrup, or some unknown ,untraceable sugar( German labs looking for what it is)
This stuff is actually a packers dream, 75-80 /lb and can be blended into any honey for the result you want. Sometimes a little good honey is added by the Chinese to bring up the quality, pollen count.(Some packer or packers making alot of money here)

She said without this on the market current world prices would be approaching 2.00/lb.......there is that much of a shortage, supplies are tight

Odem is currently offering 1.60Can for 25mm or better

[suttonbeeman]

a packer told me today white honey was at 1.35 and he thought it would go up to 1.45. what a joke....he offered me .30 for some dark amber old honey I got from another beekeepers estate. a bigger joke.... sugar is .50!

[irwin harlton]

The cheapest place to buy white honey in the past 12 months ( with the exception of Chinese honey ) has been in the USA.There is tremendous pressure to keep this market of raw product low priced, weather it be the poor economy,or cheap Chinese honey.There is a world shortage of white honey and the price will continue to move upward.It is supply and demand and honey sales are holding up well from what I hear.

http://honey.com/honeyindustry/stats/PriceRetail.htm AND http://honey.com/honeyindustry/stats/PriceWholesale.htm tell part of the story

[Doug Virginia]

I am a growing beek and am in touch with several LARGE beeks who do not have the time to get on here; anyways the one packs in barrels only, I think and he is getting $1.80 a pound FOB at his house and he states it is going out as fast as he can extract. This man does not embelish either, very honest. Although his buyers are crying about the price they ARE paying it.

Another one I know has developed over the last 30 years a large market for buckets. I know for a fact everything he does goes into buckets. This year did almost 2500 pails and he is getting $110 as of last week and it is selling fairly briskly at that price too. He just raised his price up $10 up from a $100.

AND no I do not know who they are selling to either.

[The Honey Householder]

I've never sold honey like I did this year. I've got to thanks all those that bought from me this year. It's just to bad I only produce 49 ton this year. Last year at this time I still had 30 ton in inventory. All I have left is 2800 pounds in buckets. I sold all of my honey for $1.65-1.85. Take that back I just sold my 3 barrels of melter honey for $1.35 a pound. My buyers don't like the price but with 48 ton out the door and still getting calls. I just think there is not enough US honey for the smaller packers this year. Sorry but it is the producer that is setting the price this year. This bigger packers will just have to buy that good out foreign honey blend or what ever they call it now at days. The big packers low balled me all season and it all GONE. I know I'm only 2 1/2 semi load producer, but if we all are selling the same way this year. That has got to hurt. As a second generation honey producer it FEELS GOOD!!!

If the honey producers can't make a living, and goes out of business. How is the packer going to get honey to sell. This is what has been going on for years. Less and less producers and then a bad year and the price goes sky high. If there is any US honey left by Chirstmas it will be over $2.00 a pound in the barrel.

[Tom G. Laury]

Way to go Ron.
I believe you do have an impact on the market; a positive one from a producers view. Every vote counts.

[jean-marc]

How is the packer going to get honey to sell.

That's pretty easy. He's just going to get more foreign honey like he has been doing for the past 15-20 years. Probably will be a little darker than he would like it to be, but don't you worry he'll find it.

The honey industry need to address 2 key issues. One being adulteration. This practise has to end. Somehow we need quick and inexpensive tests to determine if honey is pure. Somehow only pure honey should be able to make it to market. It is certainly not the case now.The other issue is the one of residues. Like Ron Phipps said producers need to be able to protect their livestock and consummers need to eat a healthfull food. Let's not fool ourselves into thinking that honey is pristine and free of any and all contaminates. We as an industry need reasonable tolerances for residues so that we can protect our bees from pests and diseases. Remember the chloramphenicol (sp?) issue. I always thought that the biggest mistake that the chinese did was using the wrong antibiotic. I also remember some honey being rejected because 3 parts per billion of chloramphenicol was found in the honey. Some honey was in the order of 200 parts per billion. Now at 3 parts per billion I'm unlikely to believe any arguement that this is a health issue. The mistake on the chinese part was the wrong choice of antibiotic to access world honey market. Had they used oxytetetracycline it would have been a non issue even at 200 ppb. Why the chinese used chloramphenicol, now that's another issue. I suspect resistance to other antibiotics.

Somehow the world honey industry need to address this. Lately it's been a case of finger pointing. I don't think anybody will come out victorious with that kind of strategy. There may be some temporary advantages/set backs but no long term gains to be had IMHO.

Comments?

Jean-Marc

[irwin harlton]

In the famous words from Nancy at Dutch Bronze, when asked about the shortage of honey.
"I don't think theres a shortage, the honey always seEms to come from somewhere"

[kiwiBee]

I don't know about other parts of the world but for us personally here in New Zealand we struggle to get a fair price for every aspect of our beekeeping income from pollination to propolis to honey. I feel that as beekeepers we are undervalued and our industry is not taken seriously.
I get fedup with working so hard to turn around and sell honey at $4 a kilo and know that it's being shipped and onsold at 4-5 times that price.
here in new zealand we have a huge amount of food safety regulations to adhere too and until recently have been able to produce honey with no chemicals in the hive at all with the arrival of varroa we now have to treat with miticide. We dont treat for AFB the hives are destroyed, we can't sell honey thats been in supers treated with PDB so it's not used. The honey is as good as you can get it and yet the packers will not give you a fair price for it. Makes me so mad

[irwin harlton]

A little history of chloramphenicol in chinese honey

http://www.itmonline.org/arts/bees.htm

This article was written in feb. 2003, yet in 2009 chloramphenciol was still used to identify chinese honey

[Ian]

>The honey industry need to address 2 key issues. One being adulteration. ......The other issue is the one of residues

I completely agree.
Our honey traded on the open market will fetch its fair price.
but our honey right now isnt trading against itself, but rather adulterated honey and blends.
The consumer has to be able to recognize the difference between the honey they are buying and the honey they think they are buying.
If the consumer is able to recognize the difference, our honey will again trade against itself again

[John Smith]

I suspect the Chloramphenicol to be more to do with the trade war than with any concerns for public health. Here are some of the questions I wrestle with and (my own) trial answers:

How does it come about that the big users of Chloramphenicol (China and Argentina) are also the largest exporters of honey? Is Chloramphenicol more effective than Western Antibiotics? Is it about the honey or is this an effort to protect the market from cheap Chinese antibiotic competition.

If the Chinese and the Argentineans are consuming all this poison, why aren’t their people dying like flies from cancer? What country has the most cancer? It wouldn’t be one on the North American Continent, now would it?

Carcinogens............... wow! what a powerful word. Salt is a carcinogen! Oxygen is a killer! People drown in water! Now Tamiflu, that great product we want to make compulsory for folk suffering from Swine Flu Fear, it wouldn’t be a carcinogen, .................. unless, of course one was reading the Beijing Newspapers.

OK, so I suspect China could be seen as a major competitor of Western Medicine Companies. Give any laboratory in the Western Bloc countries enough funding and they could find valid (to their minds and in their language only) reasons to reject any Chinese medicine. I also suspect any lab in China could do the same with Western Medicines.

Governments have shown a distinct tendency to ignore any dilution of honey with cheap manufactured syrups, as they know the masses must be fed, and they sure don’t want food prices to rise. But let someone threaten the Pharmaceutical Industries, and governments worldwide will pounce on the offenders with or without legal justification and authority to do so.

Honey is also a threat to these massive and powerful industries, so if we can kill two birds with one stone, what a win - win scoop that would be.

Hence, it follows that if we beekeepers want to survive, we need to quit trying to compete with supermarket honey and start promoting REAL honey, our own honey; honey from flowers and charge the customer enough to make it worth our time. Smart honey packers will do the same. Britain's beekeepers woke up to this one maybe thirty years ago. They get premium prices for local honey BUT NOT BY MARKETING IT THROUGH SUPERMARKETS!

The simple fact that we fail to dignify honey and promote it to its proper level of respect in the marketplace will have to be ignored and forgiven, as that is our main weakness and one we are not likely to overcome in the near term.

When honey does receive its proper recognition for the superior health giving qualities it brings us, it will be because the public at large create that change. It seems quite unlikely that beekeepers collectively will have much input into making that wave.
One good honest Doctor (Dr. Ron Fessenden, in his book, “The Honey Revolution”) is more likely to trigger that wave than most of the beekeepers I know. There are some fine exceptions too!

In the mean time, Westerners continue to die from every conceivable malady, too blinded by the sales spin of modern medicine to accept a little help from honey, and this is all good for the economy. But it will not always be this way. The worm is turning.

Good Luck and Long Life!

JohnS

[irwin harlton]

Comments?

Jean-Marc

You are right the two biggest problems or challenges facing this industry are adulteration and residues

Adulteration has been around since the beginning , I think, I recall a test of grocery store honey in the early 70's coming up with a very high percentage of honey possibly being adulterated, the tests back then were nowhere as a accurate as we got today.So we can readily detect if honey is adulterated.The same applies to residues.

The USA's biggest problem is there is no clear precise definition of honey, as a food on the shelf

When a problem is found by a "Good" PACKER, the honey is returned to the seller, broker, instead of being destroyed,.... for whatever reason.... could it be the cost of destroying this product ? OR JUST easier to let someone else pack it and take the risk,( seems low) whatever the reason it just adds to the amount of cheaper adulterated honey or residue tainted honey

The honey police ,weather it be the industry or the gov't have been very lax,( very small industry) only pressure from AHPD and reputable packers competing with the bad product have brought forward the seriousness of the problem.This bad honey has also had a profound effect on prices, allowing the packers both good and bad the best of both worlds

The only honey I ever heard of being destroyed by FDA was a load from Canada,in old rusty drums containing lead paint chips,off the drums...... went down a empty mine shaft in Arizona, if my facts are straight

Just my opinion, like to hear others

[jean-marc]

So what is today price? Who's offering what?

Jean-Marc

[Beeslave]

Yesterday I was offered $1.40 for ELA and $1.44 for W per lbs. for 30 drums picked up at my place. Buyer pays shipping. I declined!

[J-Bees]

Yesterday I was offered $1.40 for ELA and $1.44 for W per lbs. for 30 drums picked up at my place. Buyer pays shipping. I declined!

That's Ok cause there is still plenty of overseas honey on the market.