Page 1 of 55 1231151 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 1083
  1. #1
    jfischer Guest

    Post

    I have received enough e-mail about "growing
    degree days" and bloom dates as a result of
    the discussion to prompt me to spend a day
    writing some SAS scripts to churn through
    weather data, and do "the math" for bloom
    date prediction.

    To make this work, I'm going to need a decent
    set of "actuals", and that's where you come
    in. Please post a message to this thread
    or send me an e-mail (in my profile, which
    is accessed by clicking on the face icon
    at the top of this message) stating:

    1) Who you are (so credit can be given where
    credit is due)

    2) Your postal zip code (5-digit is fine,
    9-digit would be great if you know it)

    3) The date of the observation.

    4) The blooming plant, or plant with
    apparent pollen, which is most often
    seen on trees as a faint color change.

    5) A "confidence" statement, for example,
    you know for certain that yesterday
    that plant was not blooming or bearing
    pollen, or you just happened to notice,
    and it may well have started before
    the day you noticed.

    Using this baseline data, I can calibrate
    the variations in local temperatures and
    local rainfall amounts to come up with
    a sort of "weather map" to show the
    "bands of blooming" for any one plant,
    and work up the software to put the
    whole mess online for anyone to use
    for plants of interest to them in areas
    of interest to them.

    Heck, I don't even know what plants are
    "of interest" in various regions, so it
    would be a big help if everyone would be
    so kind as to list the known nectar and
    pollen plants of interest to their area.
    (This may require consultation with old
    guys, who tend to know this stuff.)

    Most places, maples change color first,
    and go "purplish". Places where it is
    warm all winter, I have no idea what
    the bloom sequences might be, as I
    have never kept bees in those places.

    ***************
    This is a form to let folks enter data about when stuff blooms around their area.
    The more data you put in for your local area the more detailed map I can draw for you
    This idea is thanks to a thread Jim Fischer posted on beesource.com

    http://www.drobbins.net:8080/blooms/index.jsp

    if you add your own entry and also post it here, mention it
    it'll keep me from adding it a second time and having to go back and delete one

    Dave
    ***************
    Last edited by Barry; 03-29-2008 at 04:11 PM.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Apr 2002
    Location
    Round Top, New York - Northern Catskill Mtns.
    Posts
    1,895

    Post

    I will keep track of things for this upcoming season. It will be sometime in March / April till things start here.

    I have been looking at the GDD information. Looking at it, it appears that most of the information is geared to crop production.

    Looking at the GDD info for around here, our average is about 3 for the month of March.

    It may be helpful if for bloom dates, that beekeepers are interested in, if a base other than 50F is used. I have seen other bases such as 32F and 40F used.

    I think that the Red Maples, and some other early bloomers, are going to have a GDD of 0 if we use a 50F baseline.

    Just a thought,it will be some time as we just made it to 0F so far today.


    [This message has been edited by MountainCamp (edited December 20, 2004).]

  3. #3
    Brewcat Guest

    Post

    Wow, great idea and thaks for volunteering your effort! Especially as a total newbie this kind of info would be valuable, especially as my area has very weird springs.

    ------------------
    Ben Brewcat brewing in Lyons, CO

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Sep 2003
    Location
    Eagle Creek, Oregon
    Posts
    289

    Post

    jfischer,
    I kept a calendar with that information last year, however, I used plant names that are in common usage in this area. What degree of specificity will you require for plant names?
    Are you concentrating on a particular region of the country? I live in a fairly mountainous region where every residence enjoys it's own microclimate. I live at ~300' and less than 30 miles from here the summit of Mt. Hood is over 11,000'.
    I'd be happy to forward the information that I have if you think it would be of any value to your project.
    George

  5. #5
    jfischer Guest

    Post

    > It may be helpful if for bloom dates, that
    > beekeepers are interested in, if a base other
    > than 50F is used. I have seen other bases
    > such as 32F and 40F used.

    Yeah, it is hard to be consistent.
    For the early-bloomers, like maple, you
    really want to use the 32F baseline starting
    at the winter solstice, as a 50F baseline
    certainly would result in "zero" for maples
    in many places.

    In general, if it is useful to bees and
    "early", you want to use the 32 F baseline,
    and if it is "late" the 50 F baseline is
    easier to use.

    But it gets worse - even when to START
    counting tends to vary. Some people start
    counting on Dec 21, which is the solstice, some one the 22nd, because it is the day
    AFTER the solstice, and some on January 1,
    to make the date math easier to do.

    > What degree of specificity will you
    > require for plant names?

    "Require"? Quest que c'est "require"?
    Heck, beggars can't be choosers, and if
    we can't find a Latin name for a local
    slang name, we will hunt it down with this
    newfangled invention called "the internet".

    > Are you concentrating on a particular
    > region of the country?

    I wanna do the whole continent, and I've
    got this 16 x 16 array of processors just
    idling along doing boring stuff most of
    the time. Serious number crunching is
    not just a hobby around here.

    > I live at ~300' and less than 30 miles
    > from here the summit of Mt. Hood is over
    > 11,000'.

    Elevation would be a nice thing to include,
    but I'd guess that we can ignore anything
    less than a 1000-foot vertical distance
    as "negligible".

    I'm hoping that no one tries to keep bees
    above 5000 feet, but the final maps should
    be able to "paint" the terrain properly,
    as one can interpolate the temperature
    gradients as a direct mapping of 100-foot
    contour lines on the topographic "landbase".

    Oh yeah, this is gonna be a 3-D map, and
    I am planning on showing major rivers and
    roads, county boundaries, and zip-code boundaries.

    There are some "weird" places like Cape Cod
    versus the South Shore in MA, but the good
    news is that there are thousands of weather
    stations in the USofA, and NOAA tends to put
    more stations in areas with "different"
    weather from the adjacent areas.

    So, if we run weekly "churns", one should
    be able to see what is going to bloom
    "this week", "next week", and so on, without
    much problem, and if you want the exact
    day, you are going to have to check your
    "actuals" against the forecasted temperatures.


  6. #6
    Jason G in Tennessee Guest

    Post

    YOU ARE THE MAN!!!
    I was hoping this would happen someday!
    This is like Christmas early!
    I will proudly submit my info with co-laboration from my club here in Clarksville, Tennessee.
    Jason

  7. #7
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    Rockford, Michigan
    Posts
    147

    Post

    MICHIGAN BLOOMS
    I'd love to help on this project. I do need help from an "old timer" in Michigan, on exactly what blooms are of importance and found in lower Michigan (Grand Rapids area). Then I'll be able to keep an eyeball out for em.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Location
    Macon, GA USA
    Posts
    942

    Post

    Will this project include common cultivated plants as well -- cotton, soybeans, etc.?

  9. #9
    Join Date
    May 2002
    Location
    Danbury,Ct. USA
    Posts
    1,966

    Post

    JIm,
    >>>I'm hoping that no one tries to keep bees above 5000 feet<<<
    An awful lot of the country is at or above 5,000 feet. No bees in Denver? I don't think so.

    Dickm

    [This message has been edited by dickm (edited December 21, 2004).]

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Apr 2002
    Location
    Round Top, New York - Northern Catskill Mtns.
    Posts
    1,895

    Post

    I will start counting GDD on Jan. 1, 2005.
    I am going to use a base of 32F for calculations through April 30.
    I am going to also calculate GDD using a base of 50F starting Jan. 1, 2005, as a comparison for March and April, early blooming sources.
    I am going to use the actual max /min temperature for the day, as opposed to 7am & 3 pm readings.
    I have (3) yards now,
    Catskill @ 80' in elevation (Lat: 42.19; Long: 73.86)
    The yard in Catskill is across the Hudson River from the College’s Environmental Study’s River Center, and they track this information. A friend of mine runs the center, so I will get the information for Catskill from him.

    Round Top @ 750'in elevation (Lat: 42.28; Long: 74.03)

    Round Top @ about 1100' in elevation (home) (Lat: 42.28; Long: 74.06)
    The elevation within a 2.5 mile radius from my home yard ranges from 300’ to 4,000’.

    I will bring this project up at one of our club meetings and see if we can get anyone else involved. I am sure we can.

  11. #11
    demerl51 Guest

    Post

    Hi Jim,

    I've kept track of the blooming dates for the major bee plants for about a decade. Unfortunately, I've compiled the data into a list of ranges rather than the actual dates. Would you be interested in the list?

    I will participate and post this seasons dates.

    Maybe a plant list should be compiled like maples, crocus, dandelions,......rabbitbrush, asters, etc.

    Regards
    Dennis
    keeping bees around 6000ft msl

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Oct 2002
    Location
    The Scenic Flint Hills , KS
    Posts
    5,159

    Post

    I have a calendar that I wrote the dates of first blooms on, both here in Wichita, and Marion where I keep my bees. I will have to find it as I have moved and it got pack away somewhere. I am living in an apartment full of boxes until I find another house.

    The two most important dates for me are April 1st, the begining of swarm season, and dandilion bloom which indicates the begining of drone flight.

  13. #13
    jfischer Guest

    Post

    > I've compiled the data into a list of ranges
    > rather than the actual dates. Would you be
    > interested in the list?

    Like I said, beggars can't be choosers.
    I'll take what I can get, and if you have
    date from specific years, I can back-fit
    the GDD "actuals", or if you only have a
    range, I can average the GDDs over the
    same period to come up with "good estimates".

    This is not a precise science. There are
    all sorts of variables that we are ignoring
    here (like rainfall, soil temp, etc), so
    we will be working with data that will
    always be "close" but never exactly
    on-target.

  14. #14
    jfischer Guest

    Post

    > Will this project include common cultivated
    > plants as well -- cotton, soybeans, etc.?

    Sure, why not? I don't know too many
    beekeepers who try to put their bees on
    cotton any more due to the boil weevil
    eradication program (often called the
    bee eradication program by beekeepers),
    but soybeans are a big crop, and not
    a bad nectar source at all.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    Rockford, Michigan
    Posts
    147

    Post

    jfischer, would such data as rainfall amounts,soil temps etc., be of any value?
    I know there are sites out their that give this ag data. I don't think it would be all that hard to supply on a daily basis either.

    http://ncga.ncgapremium.com/weathermaps.asp?id=10

    Also, maybe even some folks have home weather stations that could supply you with this information when they send you their visual observation data and save you time having to search it all out.
    Last season did have some unusual rainfall patterns across the country!
    At least we have time to kick this thing around some in order to discuss it and really make it worthwhile.



  16. #16
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Location
    Des Plaines, IL
    Posts
    229
    Jfischer great idea!
    Could you post an example so everybody gets on the same page?

  17. #17
    gfcg731 Guest

    Post

    It's December 21 here in SE Missouri and the forsythia in my yard has come out in bloom. Bees were even flying today.

    I bet this will skew your average! I wonder what the GDD was for this week.

    Good luck with the project.

    gfcg731
    Jackson, MO

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Jan 2003
    Location
    medesto,indiana,usa
    Posts
    257

    Post

    I just worry about spring Blooming
    1995..maples Mar-16 Apricot Mar-18 Pear April-5 Apple April-12 Dandylion April-9&10
    1996 Maple mid Feb-froze out Dandylion May-1 Apple April-25 Tulip Popular May-4
    1997 red Maples Feb-25 Dandylion April-15 clover May-20 june-1 Popular June-1
    1998 Maples 10th with several days before freeze Dandylion April-1

    these are approx. start dates often the maples get froze out after blooming the same with apple and pear the dandylions are the first real dependable spring crop usually around mid April that can handle a light frost.



  19. #19
    Join Date
    Jan 2003
    Location
    medesto,indiana,usa
    Posts
    257

    Post

    1998 red maples feb-10-15 dandylions April-1 this must of been a mild spring

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Delta,Colorado,USA
    Posts
    30

    Post

    I keep bees year around at 5800 ft.I have more trouble with bears than cold and snow

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
Ads