I wonder how many years beekeepers would report 'below average.' My uneducated guess would be that it would be greater than half.
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I wonder how many years beekeepers would report 'below average.' My uneducated guess would be that it would be greater than half.
Is your prediction from some understanding of statistical analysis?
It's a simple guess based on studies that show that well more than half of people believe that they are above average. So I guess it is a little educated. My guess is that due to cognitive biases (both positive and negative) that people would expect that what they were getting is less than average more often than more than average because they subconsciously expect every time to be like that one time where there was a bumper crop.
In my case, every year is above average because (aside from last year) I make more honey every year than the previous year. It's my whole process of beekeeping. However, eventually I'm going to run out of new things to do and then it won't be so great.
Our family has kept bees in this area of South Dakota since the early 1950's and even with that historical data it is a bit subjective in trying to determine what constitutes an average year since any moving average or most any "yardstick" you might choose to use would show a steady downward trend as farming practices have changed. This year based on how things look at the moment will most likely be the poorest average we have had in the past 10 years but then that is still just a guess about halfway through our honey production season.
Sol: I once saw a survey of licensed drivers that showed about 80% considered themselves better than average drivers. So there ya go.
When beekeepers talk about averages, we usually, in my experience, are talking about some variation of what the total crop divided b y the total number of colonies averages out to be, mathematically. I'm not sure what others are talking about.
Yes, that is what I am talking about myself. Dividing harvest by number of hives. Am curious what people down south average compared to up here in the north. I have a few hundred pound hives already but the weaker ones were all ravaged for resources for nucs that I will overwinter so their numbers are very low. Probably 70 lbs average so far.
Yes, that is what I am talking about myself. Dividing harvest by number of hives. Am curious what people down south average compared to up here in the north. I have a few hundred pound hives already but the weaker ones were all ravaged for resources for nucs that I will overwinter so their numbers are very low. Probably 70 lbs average so far.