National Polls Show Obama Holding His Lead

[pcelar]

CBS 7/31-8/5/08 (RV) (July):
Obama 45 (45)
McCain 39 (39)

AP-Ipsos 7/31-8/4/08 (RV) (June):
Obama 47 (50)
McCain 41 (43)

TIME (LV with leaners) 7/31-8/4/08 (June):
Obama 46 (47)
McCain 41 (43)

[Bodo]

Too bad it's Aug ;-)

[Sundance]

Can you imagine what these polls would be if Obama
were a white guy??

All media steers clear of the underlying race issue.
Asking questions like "Why can't he get the white
blue collar vote?" and such.

If there were a white male running in the democratic
position, McCain would be trailing by 20 points or more.

Hard to believe that there are folks out there that continue
to buy into the moronic "Obama is a Muslim", "Obama is
anti-American", assorted line of crap.

Of course race is going to play a big role in this election.
To deny it is laughable.

[Bodo]

Better (meaning more) polls. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

The funny thing is that the % error isn't listed. How do you know if a poll is significant without that?

[Gene Weitzel]

IMO history has shown that the only polls that seem to be unbiased are the Gallup polls. One shows Obama with a 3 point lead (within the margin of error) and the other shows McCain with a 4 point lead (again very close to the margin of error). No matter how anyone wants to spin it, the fact is that they are in a dead heat. Looks to me like a replay of 2000.

Sundance, I agree that if the Dems had chosen a white male that the lead would probably be unmistakeable, particularly if they had picked someone with a modicum of moderation. Instead they chose to use their advantage as a referendum to "prove" that the US is ready for a liberal minority president. All they did accomplish was to affirm the partisan divide in this country and I fear that they may have "doomed" us to another 4 years of a Republican in the White House. That being said, I would consider that the lesser of two evils when faced with voting for the Dem's current "Anointed One".

[BjornBee]

Now hold on there a minute..... ;)

Obama was black a couple months ago when polls showed his lead and "Magic' was much stronger than today. It's not like a bunch of people all of a sudden realized he was black, or have recently been convinced he is a Muslim.

What some are starting to question, is about anything coming out of his mouth (he speaks, his numbers go down!) They are realizing this guy is not the golden boy many thought he was. He is a politician, and see his stances change, his rhetoric the same as those before him, and perhaps, when stepping back for a moment, see just another guy trying to get elected.

If he wins...its diversity. If he loses, its because others are racist. Sounds to me some are making excuses already for the pending loss that is coming.

I don't care if he was white or not. I see higher taxes, more social programs and a steady march towards the left. Nobody I have spoken too even mentions race or the color of his skin. They see 4 dollar a gallon gas and a guy who says no to drilling. They see a man who instead of lowering government spending, wants to expand it. It may not be any better than what the republicans are offering. but it certainly is less than the shiny breathe of air that so many were cuaght up into. They do not believe it in the same manner they did a few months ago. So the hype is diminished, and many are just sliding back to traditional party line with item based on things of reality and not nifty slogans and empty promises. Guns, taxes, education, etc. And from what I hear from Obama, or at least till he changes his stance again, is nothing that I have not heard from anybody else.

He should be ahead by twenty, then a closing of the gap as the election gets close. the fact that he is neck and neck, indicates he will lose as his momentum and image degrades further.

[Sundance]

Hold on there....... I would bet a nice chunk of change
that Obama will be victorious against McCain.

I think after 8 years of cowboy George people aren't really
used to having someone speak intelligibly on the issues
yet.

Obama's numbers will escalate after the convention and the
VP pick. The mudslinging by the McCain camp just won't
stick this time around.

[BjornBee]

I love when one side accuses the other of mudslinging as if their side does not.... ;)

Whats next? That McCain brought race into the debate?

I must say, that Obama does speak elegantly. It just seems thats all he does. I see no substance, no details, etc. And what I do understand, I am against. (higher taxes, gun control, etc.)

You may not like Bush, but to get sucked in by either side by promises and rhetoric is humorous.

BTW, time and time again, mudslinging and negative campaigning have been successful. To think it's not part of politics, or somehow it does not work, is wrong. I'm not saying its right, just that it works.... ;)

But I guess for the guy (Obama) that started by saying he was different, that his campaign would unite, that he was above the fray....those wheels fell of awhile back. To bad some still think that magic bus ride is still rolling.

[Keith Benson]

I think after 8 years of cowboy George people aren't really
used to having someone speak intelligibly on the issues
yet.



Nah, if you can pronounce nuclear, you are an elitist snob, let alone if you can string a sentence together or cogently describe a complex issue.

Now, let's see how long it takes someone to defend GW's use of language.

Keith

[Keith Benson]

I love when one side accuses the other of mudslinging as if their side does not.... ;)

Agreed it is par for the course.

I must say, that Obama does speak elegantly. It just seems thats all he does. I see no substance, no details, etc. And what I do understand, I am against. (higher taxes, gun control, etc.)

I feel the same way about both of them, and for most political professionals FWIW. The lips are moving, catch phrases are whipping about but little actually gets said. Why? Because most folks want to feel good after hearing familiar things spoken with catchy phrasing over feeling better informed. Sad, but true. No one makes it to the presidential race without a cadre of people who are carefully keeping track of what works and what doesn't. These are the same folks that are seem backstage flagellating themselves every time the candidate screws up and say s something off script. If they only talk in sound bites and platitudes - it is for a reason.

You may not like Bush, but to get sucked in by either side by promises and rhetoric is humorous.

Not liking Bush is no reason to vote for anyone since he isn't in this election.

BTW, time and time again, mudslinging and negative campaigning have been successful.

'zactly.

Keith

[Derek]

Now, let's see how long it takes someone to defend GW's use of language.

Can't be done. When Letterman has a bit running of 2 years + with a new clip everynight of Bush jacking up a sentance or a word. There is no defense.

[Bodo]

Obama gets in trouble when he speaks off the cuff.
Today he told a girl: 'America is no longer what it could be'.

What?

[pcelar]

Hold on there....... I would bet a nice chunk of change
that Obama will be victorious against McCain.
I see landslide victory. ;)

And everybody will see it after the first debate. My opinion.

[George Fergusson]

Obama, McCain yuk it up with fake campaign ads on 'Last Comic Standing'

August 5, 2008

Barack Obama. John McCain. Jon Lovitz. Triumph the Insult Comic Dog.

What do these notable figures have in common? They’re all appearing Thursday night in the season finale of NBC reality contest “Last Comic Standing.”

It’s no joke: Obama and McCain both taped mock campaign ads that will air during the show. Obama’s ad makes light of his poor bowling skills, while McCain is chided for being not funny but … funny looking.

http://www.suntimes.com/entertainment/1092291,standing080508.article


Whose idea was this?

[Barry Digman]

I don't think Obama will win. At the last moment, when the the voter is alone in the booth and has to pull the lever, he'll choose the devil he knows over the devil he doesn't. I'm also reminded of Jerry Brown's bid for the Presidency. The thought of Linda Ronstadt rollerskating down the corridors of the White House drove people nuts. I imagine that those same folks are a whole lot uncomfortable with the prospect of Obama having people in the White House who do not resemble their own neighbors.

[wbell]

I don't think Obama will win. At the last moment, when the the voter is alone in the booth and has to pull the lever, he'll choose the devil he knows over the devil he doesn't. I'm also reminded of Jerry Brown's bid for the Presidency. The thought of Linda Ronstadt rollerskating down the corridors of the White House drove people nuts. I imagine that those same folks are a whole lot uncomfortable with the prospect of Obama having people in the White House who do not resemble their own neighbors.

Obama looks an awlful like my neighbors so I'm going with him.

[Jeffrey Todd]

I wonder which demographic group is most likely to vote for someone of their own race.
What percentage of the white vote (in the primaries) went to Obama and what percent went to Clinton? How about the black vote?
Obviously, race will play some part in this, but will it be a net gain or net loss for Obama or McCain?
The original post is telling: the young black guy still leads the old white guy.

[dcross]

Whose idea was this?


Heck, the two of them and Hillary went on Monday Night Smackdown together...

[tecumseh]

sundance writes:
Hard to believe that there are folks out there that continue
to buy into the moronic "Obama is a Muslim", "Obama is
anti-American", assorted line of crap.

tecumseh replies: perhaps your estimate of the american electorate street smarts is not what it should be bruce?

or perhaps you underestimate the power of propoganda?

please consider... nixon's southern strategy has worked for almost 40 years. negative campaigning continues to work and the average joe on the street can' tell you why. or perhaps just consider how many people seem to believe that giving donald trump a tax cut is of some benefit to themselves.

another great quote... 'no one ever went broke underestimating the good taste of the american public.'

I think???? it was pt barnum.

[Eaglerock]

Now, let's see how long it takes someone to defend GW's use of language.

Keith

GWB is the laughing stock of the world. The world listens to who we voted into office and thinks.............? But then again his father said things like..."read my hips, no new taxes" saying this because he was jogging. The leaders of our nation.... sad.

[Sundance]

sundance writes:
Hard to believe that there are folks out there that continue
to buy into the moronic "Obama is a Muslim", "Obama is
anti-American", assorted line of crap.

tecumseh replies: perhaps your estimate of the american electorate street smarts is not what it should be bruce?

or perhaps you underestimate the power of propoganda?

please consider... nixon's southern strategy has worked for almost 40 years. negative campaigning continues to work and the average joe on the street can' tell you why. or perhaps just consider how many people seem to believe that giving donald trump a tax cut is of some benefit to themselves.

another great quote... 'no one ever went broke underestimating the good taste of the american public.'

I think???? it was pt barnum.

I remain optimistic comrade..... I feel there is a silent majority
(and not tricky Dicks') that is slowly feeling and seeing the
fallacy of the bill of goods we've been sold.

As I've said before.......... My heart lies with the Green Party and
I will vote for Obama only if it is close. Neither of the "major"
parties is taking on the hard issues head on for fear of losing
their base. Like single payer health care, and rapid deployment
of alternative energy solutions.

[JPK1NH]

Can you imagine what these polls would be if Obama
were a white guy??



lol

Yes.....Hillary would be the Candidate right now and Obama might not even be a Jr Sen from Ill.

[Sundance]

lol

Yes.....Hillary would be the Candidate right now and Obama might not even be a Jr Sen from Ill.

So you are implying that Barack is where he is only because of
his race??

ROFLMAO

[JPK1NH]

So you are implying that Barack is where he is only because of
his race??

ROFLMAO

Pretty much.

Less because he happens to be Black and more because he's a novelty/firstdifferent, whatever you want to call it.

A look at his accomplishments and voting record show a person without any particular accomplishments that stand out as unique.....his voting record....or more specifically the number of "Present" votes demonstrate a person who is poorly prepared or apathetic....lets not even get started on the positions he's supported when he DID actually show up for work and vote Yea or Nay.

[mike haney]

"A look at his accomplishments and voting record show a person without any particular accomplishments that stand out as unique.....his voting record....or more specifically the number of "Present" votes demonstrate a person who is poorly prepared or apathetic....lets not even get started on the positions he's supported when he DID actually show up for work and vote Yea or Nay." THIS IS WHY I'M NOT WORRIED A LICK HE'LL GET ELECTED. as fall draws near and people start to look past the sound bites and mud they will realize- there is nothing there.

[JPK1NH]

THIS IS WHY I'M NOT WORRIED A LICK HE'LL GET ELECTED. as fall draws near and people start to look past the sound bites and mud they will realize- there is nothing there.

Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.....

[pcelar]

Update: Fairbanks Alaska Republican Mayor Endorses Obama w/ New Alaska Poll +5 Obama!

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/8/12/113934/558/795/566701


Hays Poll - Alaska: Obama 45, McCain 40, Nader 2 - MOE 4.9%

In an absolute stunner of a poll, a polling organization called Hays (I have no idea who these guys are, but perhaps some Alaskan Kossacks can educate) has released a poll showing Obama up +5 in Alaska. That's right.....deep Red Alaska.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/8/12/15713/8734/645/566843

[Sundance]

Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.....

You're right....... Look at 2 terms of Junior. Quite possibly the
worst president in history. If your quote holds true then quite
possibly McCain has a chance.

[pcelar]

You're right....... Look at 2 terms of Junior. Quite possibly the
worst president in history. If your quote holds true then quite
possibly McCain has a chance.
hahahahaha
check mate.

[pcelar]

Former Republican congressman Jim Leach of Iowa endorses Obama!

This is huge news for Obama and very bad news for McSame:

http://www.crooksandliars.com/2008/08/12/former-republican-congressman-jim-leach-of-iowa-endorses-obama/

[JPK1NH]

Historically polls taken at this point in the year mean very little and candidates who have been up 15% or more in the last few decades have ended up losing in Nov.

[Galaxy]

Historically polls taken at this point in the year mean very little and candidates who have been up 15% or more in the last few decades have ended up losing in Nov. As usual you are right on JPK1NH. Dwelling on polls at this time is a waste of time.

The only poll that counts is the one (the vote) on the first Tuesday in November. If Obama expects to win the big poll, he better be ahead in the polls just before the vote by at least 10 points. Otherwise, he is likely to lose.

[Barry Digman]

It's called the Wilder Effect or the Bradley Effect.





Given that surveys can have trouble uncovering the truth about many things besides race, plus the massive technological, demographic and cultural changes in play, this question is contributing to an almost unprecedented air of uncertainty surrounding this year's polls.


http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jkoEEhjRVjebVLYgDcH7Qd38Bb_QD92GT3GG0

[Galaxy]

It's called the Wilder Effect or the Bradley Effect.Thanks Barry. I had forgotten the name of the Wilder Effect. Good article link.

[pcelar]

More Republicans for Obama

Lou Thieblemont, Jim Leach (kicked off Republicans for Obama, Rita Hauser, International Peace Institute Chair and 2000 New York Finance Chair for Bush will lead the group, Jim Whitaker, Tom Bernstein, Joel Haugen
-Reagan policy advisor Bruce Bartlett
-Delbert Spurlock, Lowell Weicker Tony Campell, Douglas Kmiec, Dorothy Danforth Burlin, Susan Eisenhower...

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/8/12/204458/138

[BjornBee]

Recent polls here in Pa. have Obama up by a point or two. Most Democrats carry a good lead until tightening as the race draws near. The fact that McCain is neck and neck with Obama, does not bode well for Obama. Republicans smell blood....and this is a state that Obama should easily win.

[BjornBee]

Wow...what a month does. Obama has given up in some states, has lost his lead in others, and the dem party is in panic mode. If not for the media, this would be over by now. "Change"....yup, I agree, what a change from the bloated days of Obama running against Bush. ;)

[Barry Digman]

Wow...what a month does. Obama has given up in some states, has lost his lead in others, and the dem party is in panic mode. If not for the media, this would be over by now. "Change"....yup, I agree, what a change from the bloated days of Obama running against Bush. ;)

Really? Today's poll seems to indicate something a bit different.

WASHINGTON — Despite an intense effort to distance himself from the way his party has done business in Washington, Senator John McCain is seen by voters as far less likely to bring change to Washington than Senator Barack Obama. Mr. McCain is widely viewed as a “typical Republican” who would continue or expand President Bush’s policies, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll...

...When asked who they think will win in November, 45 percent said Mr. Obama and 38 percent said Mr. McCain.



http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/18/us/politics/18poll.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

[JPK1NH]

Well, it is the Times/CBS...

Rasmussen:
Election 2008: Wisconsin Presidential Election
Obama 48%, McCain 46% as Race Tightens in Wisconsin

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/wisconsin/election_2008_wisconsin_presidential_election

Zogby
http://www.zogby.com/50state/

This one is electoral votes and has the race currently at Obama 234 McCain 226 with ~78 electoral votes up in the air.

Gallup has Obama 47 and McCain 45
http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx

Basically its essentially a dead heat statistically speaking.

[BjornBee]

Really? Today's poll seems to indicate something a bit different.

You see, when you want number a particular way, you come up with polling in any number of different ways. This one, open for the general public, and not narrowed to voters, likely voters, or even those registered, asks a question of the general public as if it were a sporting event to wager on.

If those numbers reflected anything more than a single result of probably many questions, and selected to give the best results for their slanted view, than they would say so.

The fact it was CBS, and not a national nuetral polling service should also be seen with a raised eyebrow.

JPK,
I think you have the idea.

[SantaCruzBee]

Oh, it's definitely close at the moment. We'll see over the next few days if McCain's incredible 'insights' into our economic difficulties will drag him down, I suspect they will. What a flip-flopper!

In any case, it appears that his convention bounce is now vitiating...

-Doug

[pcelar]

New CBS Poll: Palin Bounce Bust...
Obama 49% McCain 44%!!! (Taken 9/12-9/16)

Obama leads McCain 54 percent to 38 percent among all women. He holds a two point edge among white women, a 21 percentage point swing in Obama's direction from one week ago.

Regarding Change:
Obama: 65%
McCain: 37% (60% say No Change OUCH!)

and Among Independents on who will bring change.
Obama: 61%
McCain: 35%

And on whose a Maverick... Obama is viewed as a "different kind of Democrat" by 47% of voters, while McCain is viewed as a "Maverick" by only 40%; 57% view him as a typical republican.

[Derek]

Oh, it's definitely close at the moment. We'll see over the next few days if McCain's incredible 'insights' into our economic difficulties will drag him down, I suspect they will. What a flip-flopper!

In any case, it appears that his convention bounce is now vitiating...

-Doug

And now that the Palin factor is wearing off. ( See the polls ) We can get to the 2 Pres. Noms. Talking about the issues. What's that old Saturday Night Live bit with the airline stuartesses..... O yeah....

Buh by.....Buuuhhh By........Buuuuuuuhhhhhhh Byyyyyyy........McCain

[miele]

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

"Electoral projections done right"

An interesting website.
It definitely has a left twist, but there are some nice graph projections to look at.

[Bizzybee]

I hear there's going to be a big poll come Nov. 4th. We'll see how that one turns out.........

[Barry Digman]

Hmmm. It seems there's a trend developing.


From CNN Ticker Producer Alexander Mooney


Obama is gaining in national polls.
(CNN) – Barack Obama appears to be regaining his summer edge over John McCain according to the latest CNN poll of polls, which shows a swing of four points in the Illinois senator's favor in just over a week.

With less than seven weeks remaining until voters weigh in at the polls, Obama now holds a 2 point lead over McCain (47 percent to 45 percent), according to CNN's average of several recent national polls. Eight percent still remain undecided.

The latest polls also suggest Obama again holds the slim but clear advantage he held in August before both parties' conventions — one month ago, Obama held the same 2 point margin over McCain.


Of course, as pointed out earlier, the November 4th poll is the second most important one, right after the US Supreme Court one.

[SantaCruzBee]

Hmmm. It seems there's a trend developing.





Of course, as pointed out earlier, the November 4th poll is the second most important one, right after the US Supreme Court one.
That gave me a chuckle, Barry.

-Doug

[tecumseh]

coyote writes:
Of course, as pointed out earlier, the November 4th poll is the second most important one, right after the US Supreme Court one.

tecumseh replies: to paraphase joseph stalin... it is not who votes that counts, but who counts the vote.


*

[Bodo]

tecumseh replies: to paraphase joseph stalin... it is not who votes that counts, but who counts the vote.


*

hehe, so why vote at all if it's crooked? Do you really believe that?

[BjornBee]

There are many dems that think the Bush elections were fixed. I'm hoping they all think its being fixed again, and they just stay home... ;)

[HVH]

I am always amazed by these dialogs. It reminds me of sports where someone is a diehard fan of some team when there really isn't any rational basis in that attachment.
No matter which world view a voter has I really can't understand why liberals and conservatives can't agree that government is incapable of running any program efficiently. I agree that our health care system is far too expensive, but what historical example do we have that would lead anyone to believe that government run healthcare will be any different from the US Postal Service? Can anyone cite an example where a federal entitlement program is a great success? And while we are at it, is it really smart to tax small businesses that gross over $250,000.00 per year when small businesses provide the vast majority of jobs in this country - especially during an economic downturn? I am personally disgusted with Washington politics in both parties and wish we could make some serious changes, but platitudes don't make for change especially when voting records suggest otherwise. If anyone really thinks either candidate can wave a magic wand and fix Washington then they are delusional. Obama has some nice sound bites and platitudes like "Yes we can" "Change", "Hope" and McCain says he and Palin are Mavericks and have a record of stirring up politics. Both sides are taking advantage of our disgust for Washington and know darn well that they will be very limited in what they can do to change politics as usual. Personally, I like to be realistic and stick to what a president can really do and then compare philosophies and records. Since I am opposed to rationed government healthcare (even though we already have HMO rationed healthcare), oppose earmarks, favor offshore drilling, desperately want someone experienced in national security, think abortion and homosexuality are signs of a decaying culture, I will plug my nose and vote for McCain.

[Barry Digman]

... I will plug my nose and vote for McCain.

Vote Libertarian.

[sqkcrk]

Vote for the change you want to see. Be it McCain, Obama, Paul or whomever.

[pcelar]

Incredible, the lead is GROWING

Obama: 52% (47%)
McCain: 43% (49%)

Among likely voters!

Do More to Bring Change:
Obama 58%
McCain 33%

More Honest and Trustworthy:
Obama: 47%
McCain: 36%

Stronger Leader:
Obama: 47%
McCain: 46%

Understands Economic Problems:
Obama: 57%
McCain: 33%

Palin Favorability has slipped to 52% from 58%, falling notably with white Catholics and white College Graduates. Additionally, McCain's enthusiasm which was at 46% has slid to 34%, while Obama is rock solid with Very Enthusiastic at 62%.

look at white women:
Obama: 49% (43%)
McCain: 47% (54%)

More swing groups!!!

White Catholics:
Obama 47% (38%)
McCain 46% (57%)

Independents:
Obama: 53% (42%)
McCain: 39% (52%)

Married Women:
Obama: 51% (42%)
McCain: 46% (53%)

Big Question for Media: IS OBAMA NOW RUNNING AWAY WITH THE ELECTION?

and incase you missed it, McCain has officially LOST HIS BASE

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/24/075/45286/909/608292

[BjornBee]

With much more even polling out there from non-partisan companies, I always find it ironic that some will lean so heavily on MSNBC, ABC, FOX, or any other news outlet. I trust polling from the places like ABC as much as I trust Clinton to be left alone in a room with an intern... ;)

Figures it come from dailykos. Can you even consider this to be correct? What a joke.

[pcelar]

BLOWOUT – CBS poll of Undecideds (Graphs and More)
http://www.dailykos.com/hotlist/add/2008/9/27/0026/92013/displaystory//

Worth more than 1,000 words, huh?
http://i9.photobucket.com/albums/a81/kos102/2008/Campaign/JFK-Bama.jpg

CNN: Polls Say Obama Won, Disaster for McCain
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/26/233010/756/209/612019

[JPK1NH]

Its so funny that people use links to the Daily Kooks as if they are a reliable source if information.

I suspect that we've reached the point where the National Enquirer is more accurate and less biased than the DailyKos.

As for ABC, CBS, MSNBC, they've all demonstrated a persistent bias and IMHO are no longer New Outlets but rather are a wing of the Obama Campaign.

If you want to post polling stats that carry any weight/objectivity whatsoever try starting with Rasmussen or Zogby

[BjornBee]

Even MSNBC, as slanted as they are, this morning had the daily tracking as it's been for a number of days...48 Obama, and 45 McCain. No change.

[JPK1NH]

Here's a quote from a RELIABLE pollster compared to MSLSD, CNN etc.

Pollster says election could end in landslide
http://www.democratandchronicle.com/article/20080925/NEWS01/80925009/1002/NEWS

"Essentially the election is at equilibrium," said John Zogby, president of Zogby International. "This election will stay close until the end."

Zogby said he thinks the race will turn in the last weekend before Election Day and though the popular vote will be tight, the successful candidate will win in a landslide.
He likened this year's election to the contest in 1980, when Ronald Reagan defeated President Jimmy Carter.

"This may be and probably is the most important election in our lifetime," Zogby said. "I don't say that lightly."

Despite two books by Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama, Americans still don't know enough about him. And if they don't think they know him well enough by the time they vote, they'll go with the "comfortable old shoe," Republican Sen. John McCain, Zogby said.

[pcelar]

The latest Quinnipiac polls show Obama crossing the 50 percent threshold in all three of those states:

Florida: 51 - 43

Ohio: 50 - 42

Pennsylvania: 54 - 39

[Derek]

If you want to post polling stats that carry any weight/objectivity whatsoever try starting with Rasmussen or Zogby

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday again shows Barack Obama attracting 51% of the vote while John McCain earns 44%. For each of the past eight days, Obama has been at 50% or 51% and McCain has been at 44% or 45%. New polling shows Obama pulling away in New Hampshire and opening a growing lead in the Electoral College projections.

[Sundance]

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday again shows Barack Obama attracting 51% of the vote while John McCain earns 44%. For each of the past eight days, Obama has been at 50% or 51% and McCain has been at 44% or 45%. New polling shows Obama pulling away in New Hampshire and opening a growing lead in the Electoral College projections.


Ouch................... good one Derek!! Slam Dunk.:thumbsup:

[dragonfly]

The national polls don't really mean much. It's the battleground state polls that indicate the overall picture.

[Sundance]

From Fox News website.........

The poll showed Obama leading 51-to-43 percent in Florida; 50-to-42 percent in Ohio; and 54-to-39 percent in Pennsylvania. All three polls showed Obama gaining considerably compared with pre-debate polls taken before Friday night.

http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/10/01/race-tightens-nationally-battleground-polls-obama-wide-lead/

[sqkcrk]

Do you really think that having the most votes will mean that Obama wins? We'll have to wait and see. Someone will probably just change the rules.

[pcelar]

It's the first time a poll has shown Barack Obama leading John McCain in the Mountain State:
Obama 50
McCain 42


http://wvablue.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=3359

[pcelar]

http://abcnews.go.com/pollingunit :thumbsup:

[JPK1NH]

http://abcnews.go.com/pollingunit :thumbsup:

Those Polls might change a bit once the word gets out that Obama's Tax Cut is really redefining Welfare.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122385651698727257.html

[pcelar]

Since most people do not make $250,000.00/yr they do not have to worry about tax increase. Those with tons of money will DEFINITELY see tax increase, as they should. They are not paying enough anyway.

[BjornBee]

Since most people do not make $250,000.00/yr they do not have to worry about tax increase. Those with tons of money will DEFINITELY see tax increase, as they should. They are not paying enough anyway.


We will all see increases. Toll road increases. School taxes increases. Property tax increases. Consumer goods increases. And a hundred other things.

Don't kid yourself. Mandated and expanded government programs means everyone pays for it one way or the other.

To single out income or capital taxes and make promises means little. To pay for the things that Obama wants, you will pay for it. Maybe not in your payroll tax deduction...but phone bill increases, gas tax increases, electricity tax increases, and so on.

Making promises about a federal payroll tax is meaningless. They know there are a hundred ways to tax everything, and everybody. Don't fall for the hollow promises of screwing someone else. You just screw yourself also.

Its sad that some feel that taxing others more is somehow good. The excess and pork in government is great. I want smaller government, less spending, and for everyone to keep more in their pockets. When did we get to a point that it all come down to who will be taxed more? How about EVERYONE getting taxed less? It's as if we just except government increased spending and are just looking to see who will pay for it. And like I said.....more spending.....everyone pays for it, one way or another.

[Derek]

We will all see increases. Toll road increases. School taxes increases. Property tax increases. Consumer goods increases. And a hundred other things.

To single out income or capital taxes and make promises means little. To pay for the things that Obama wants, you will pay for it. Maybe not in your payroll tax deduction...but phone bill increases, gas tax increases, electricity tax increases, and so on.

We will all see increases. Doesn't matter who wins. One way or the other.

But, Once I have my pay check less taxes in hand. It's how I spend it. I don't drive toll roads. I can cut my phone bill to nothing but internet so I can do this. I can carpool, raise the a/c, and so on.

[Keith Jarrett]

Its sad that some feel that taxing others more is somehow good. The excess and pork in government is great. I want smaller government, less spending, and for everyone to keep more in their pockets. When did we get to a point that it all come down to who will be taxed more? How about EVERYONE getting taxed less? It's as if we just except government increased spending and are just looking to see who will pay for it. And like I said.....more spending.....everyone pays for it, one way or another.

Very well said BB

[Bizzybee]

Let's see here? Now if I were a business owner making $251,000 a year and suddenly I was required to take a cut in my income of say $20,000 what would I do. I could drop and employee or better yet increase my prices to offset my losses. Every other business in my shoes will be doing the same so I wouldn't think there is a danger of lost sales from the move.

That shouldn't affect to many folks because I'm small, but I suppose if you add every other small business across the board that should pretty well cover a lot of the population. But wait, that increase includes all incomes above $250,000. That should pretty well cover any and all business that will take an even bigger hit to their income. That should take care of any that are missed by the little guys.

So how do we tax the upper, middle and lower classes and make the little people think we are on their side. Hmmmmmm that's a tough one indeed. :scratch:



I guess I'd have to drill a hole in my head and hook an IV bag of liquid Crack to my brain to do this democratic math. This stuff makes calculus seem like a cake walk!!

[Keith Jarrett]

I guess I'd have to drill a hole in my head and hook an IV bag of liquid Crack to my brain to do this democratic math. This stuff makes calculus seem like a cake walk!!

lol... :)

[Derek]

Let's see here? Now if I were a business owner making $251,000 a year and suddenly I was required to take a cut in my income of say $20,000 what would I do. I could drop and employee or better yet increase my prices to offset my losses. Every other business in my shoes will be doing the same so I wouldn't think there is a danger of lost sales from the move.

1 thought is you could get rid of that one or many illegal immigrants and replace them with an American Made Machine that does there job. Save money and taxes. Depends on what your business is though.

[Barry]

Let's see here? Now if I were a business owner making $251,000 a year and suddenly I was required to take a cut in my income of say $20,000 what would I do. I could drop and employee or better yet increase my prices to offset my losses. Every other business in my shoes will be doing the same so I wouldn't think there is a danger of lost sales from the move.

But I guess "they deserve it" according to some. Which really means, "I guess I'll be paying more for __________ the next time." Or, they won't have a job after their boss decides to close up shop cause it's costing too much to do business.

[pcelar]

Very well said BB
Hehehehe
Sky is falling! Democrat is winning! Oy, oy, oy yoy yoy! Let's make up stories!
:shhhh: Dont you see he is black?!:shhhh:

[Keith Jarrett]

American Made Machine that does there job. Save money and taxes. Depends on what your business is though.

I knew it was out there...

Where can I find one of these bee working machines.:)

[pcelar]

Let's see here? Now if I were a business owner making $251,000 a year and suddenly I was required to take a cut in my income of say $20,000 what would I do. I could drop and employee or better yet increase my prices to offset my losses.
Or you could generate more work and employ more people in US and get tax break $3,000.00/employee. Glass is half full!

[Bizzybee]

:shhhh: Dont you see he is black?!:shhhh:

I personally know many black people I would much rather vote for and honored to call them friend.

Who's is it exactly that's inciting race? Make up stories? Lets do please. That's just what we need, a little more hate a little more anger. Lets keep the division alive and well amongst our brothers and sisters right here at home.

This kind of garbage makes me sick and benefits no one........

[walking bird]

Regarding the black comment: I think pc was kidding...

Regarding polls: it's like handicapping the race before the starting bell. Mostly a lot of sound and fury signifying nothing. The odds change constantly, and then one of the horses wins. Big difference here is that we get to do a little more than just bet on the outcome. Not much more, but a little.

Out of all the posts, I thought this excerpt was quite illuminating. Bjorn, describing the key issues he votes on: "Guns, taxes, education, etc." Interesting prioritization.

And finally: certainly the last 8 years have proven indefensible. Arrogance and selling out of the highest order. We can't survive more of the same. And to my mind, a man who can align himself with the same folks responsible for a reprehensible smear campaign against his own previous candidacy demonstrates a stunning willingness to sell out. I can't vote for someone with such scabby knees.

[pcelar]

McCain: The risky choice for president
by Joan Walsh

...And while that’s gone over big at McCain-Palin rallies, where they call Obama a “terrorist” and a “traitor,” and carry stuffed monkeys with Obama stickers on their foreheads, it hasn’t worked with the American people. In fact, more people now consider McCain the “risky” choice for president: 50 percent of those polled called McCain risky, vs. 45 percent for Obama, while 29 percent considered Obama a “very safe” choice, vs. only 18 percent for McCain. Oh, and by the way: McCain’s negatives have climbed 9 percent since the last poll....


http://www.salon.com/opinion/walsh/?last_story=/opinion/walsh/election_2008/2008/10/14/mccain_troubles/

[Keith Jarrett]

Hehehehe
Sky is falling! Democrat is winning! Oy, oy, oy yoy yoy! Let's make up stories!
:shhhh: Dont you see he is black?!:shhhh:

Can't add much to that.

[Gene Weitzel]

I guess I'd have to drill a hole in my head and hook an IV bag of liquid Crack to my brain to do this democratic math. This stuff makes calculus seem like a cake walk!!

The math is actually very easy, with a little over 100 million households in this country and 1.5% of them making $250,000 or more annually, it will take an average tax hike on them of $175,000 per year to raise the additional $800 billion Obama needs for his plan. While it would only take an average tax hike of $2,700 per year on the other 99.5 million households to raise the same amount. It does not take calculus to figure out which way it will actually go once he is elected along with a veto proof Democratic majority in Congress.

[Galaxy]

Or you could generate more work and employ more people in US and get tax break $3,000.00/employee. Do you know that your statement is full of inconsistencies? Who generates productive work? Certainly not the government by taxing and spending. How do you generate taxes for the government to spend if you give everyone a $3000. tax break?