irwin harlton
09-01-2007, 07:33 PM
Honey Update:
from http://skamberg.com/honey.htm
August 2007
This has been a summer of concern, speculation, and some over exuberance of a possible bumper honey crop in the upper Midwest of the U.S. Excessive heat and a lack of rain have quickly dried up a once flourishing clover crop in that region. Drought in the West, especially California, had already reduced the honey crop in those areas. Raw honey prices, which had been rising since last February, stabilized a bit in July, but now have bumped up again on the realization that the U.S. crop will be smaller than originally projected. With the increased U.S. demand for honey, supply is still a bit short on the world market. The E.U. ban on Brazilian raw honey should be lifted in September, and the E.U. is already contracting for that honey, which has also firmed prices. It appears that raw honey prices will remain strong going into 2008. Improved Asian honey crops, and a good South American honey crop are needed to increase world honey supply, and possibly soften prices. Colony Collapse Disorder is still a real threat throughout the world, and if some of the colonies that have been rebuilt start to die off again this fall, supply concerns could again start to raise raw honey prices.
from http://www.fdl.co.uk/main_content.asp?id_content=417&id_subitem=26&id_division=6
Market Report: 18th July 2007 Print version
Since our 31st May 2007 market report, prices for Argentine honey have tended to decline despite a weak US Dollar. The question to be asked now is the extent to which prices for honey will continue this trend.
Figures recently published by the Argentine customs authorities have showed that total honey exports between 1st January and 30th June 2007 have amounted to 45,000 mt and it is estimated that a further 10,000 mt has been sold but is still in the hands of exporters in Argentina. On the basis that the total 2007 Argentine crop amounted to some 75,000-80,000 mt, it seems that, at most, 25,000 mt is currently unsold, and in the hands of exporters and/or beekeepers. There are no doubt some long holders who are keen to see a higher market, but, on current form, they will have to wait until later in the summer to see if the increased demand that is then likely to come from Europe and the USA will translate into higher prices. Currently demand from these areas is quiet, with the holiday season in full swing, and it is now clear that the recent decline in prices from Argentina and Central America should be interpreted as sellers reducing their prices in the face of slack demand. As far as Argentina is concerned, beekeepers are making offers (albeit limited ones) but, at least, this is better than the situation reported in our May 2007 report, when their beekeepers, anticipating a higher market, were just unwilling to make any offers. It seems now that there is a more balanced market: demand from the USA is beginning to be apparent and Germany, in particular, appears to be becoming more concerned about the excessive heat and drought that is affecting certain southern Eastern European countries. However, German packers are generally not willing to pay the asking prices for Argentine honey. Going forward, we believe that, on balance, prices should not change too much over the coming weeks.
It should be pointed out that there is still no official notification from the EU authorities of a resumption of shipments of Brazilian honey to Europe. It is generally anticipated, however, without any real evidence to support this view, that shipments could resume late in 2007, but, even if this were true, it would be too late to have any influence on the course of Argentine prices this season.
Turning to China, the crop there is making reasonable progress. Crop indications earlier in 2007 were somewhat promising on account of the warm weather noted in March, but cooler weather conditions in early April slowed the honey flow. Despite this, in our May report, we estimated the total 2007 spring crop in the main producing provinces of Anhui, Hubei and Jiangsu amounted to some 18,500 mt (compared to 12,000 mt in 2006), but it seems that these estimates were on the low side, as we now believe that the total spring crops amount to some 21,000 mt. The summer crops are currently being harvested and the picture, so far, is mixed: the Henan and Hubei crops have suffered some excessive rainfall and we anticipate a decline in available quantities from these areas. The northern provinces of Hubei, Shanxi and Liaoning have suffered from drought and, more recently, from lower temperatures, but, nevertheless, we anticipate a summer crop of some 3,000 - 5,000 mt. The rape honey crops in the important provinces of Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang look promising but continuing good weather is needed to encourage a good crop of 3,000 mt. On the other hand, the western province of Qinghai has witnessed a decline in rape planting of 50% compared to 2006 - in favour of wheat - so, at best, the crop there will be greatly reduced. The Chinese acacia crop, however, looks good and there are estimates of a 20,000 mt crop, which is in sharp contrast to the poor Hungarian crop, which is suffering from low robinia pollen content and, therefore, a low fructose/glucose ratio. In terms of price, despite a strong RMB against the US Dollar, we continue to believe that Chinese honey, despite the necessary extra analysis costs, is fully competitive against Argentine honey and, thus, we see no reason why Chinese prices should decline in the short or medium terms.
With the Central American crops now exhausted and with concerns being raised on the high temperatures and drought in Eastern Europe, we do not believe that prices for Argentine or Chinese honey (in US Dollar terms) need to decline. All now depends on the level of demand coming into the market for autumn and winter shipments to the northern hemisphere and, for this, we need to wait a few weeks more.
from http://skamberg.com/honey.htm
August 2007
This has been a summer of concern, speculation, and some over exuberance of a possible bumper honey crop in the upper Midwest of the U.S. Excessive heat and a lack of rain have quickly dried up a once flourishing clover crop in that region. Drought in the West, especially California, had already reduced the honey crop in those areas. Raw honey prices, which had been rising since last February, stabilized a bit in July, but now have bumped up again on the realization that the U.S. crop will be smaller than originally projected. With the increased U.S. demand for honey, supply is still a bit short on the world market. The E.U. ban on Brazilian raw honey should be lifted in September, and the E.U. is already contracting for that honey, which has also firmed prices. It appears that raw honey prices will remain strong going into 2008. Improved Asian honey crops, and a good South American honey crop are needed to increase world honey supply, and possibly soften prices. Colony Collapse Disorder is still a real threat throughout the world, and if some of the colonies that have been rebuilt start to die off again this fall, supply concerns could again start to raise raw honey prices.
from http://www.fdl.co.uk/main_content.asp?id_content=417&id_subitem=26&id_division=6
Market Report: 18th July 2007 Print version
Since our 31st May 2007 market report, prices for Argentine honey have tended to decline despite a weak US Dollar. The question to be asked now is the extent to which prices for honey will continue this trend.
Figures recently published by the Argentine customs authorities have showed that total honey exports between 1st January and 30th June 2007 have amounted to 45,000 mt and it is estimated that a further 10,000 mt has been sold but is still in the hands of exporters in Argentina. On the basis that the total 2007 Argentine crop amounted to some 75,000-80,000 mt, it seems that, at most, 25,000 mt is currently unsold, and in the hands of exporters and/or beekeepers. There are no doubt some long holders who are keen to see a higher market, but, on current form, they will have to wait until later in the summer to see if the increased demand that is then likely to come from Europe and the USA will translate into higher prices. Currently demand from these areas is quiet, with the holiday season in full swing, and it is now clear that the recent decline in prices from Argentina and Central America should be interpreted as sellers reducing their prices in the face of slack demand. As far as Argentina is concerned, beekeepers are making offers (albeit limited ones) but, at least, this is better than the situation reported in our May 2007 report, when their beekeepers, anticipating a higher market, were just unwilling to make any offers. It seems now that there is a more balanced market: demand from the USA is beginning to be apparent and Germany, in particular, appears to be becoming more concerned about the excessive heat and drought that is affecting certain southern Eastern European countries. However, German packers are generally not willing to pay the asking prices for Argentine honey. Going forward, we believe that, on balance, prices should not change too much over the coming weeks.
It should be pointed out that there is still no official notification from the EU authorities of a resumption of shipments of Brazilian honey to Europe. It is generally anticipated, however, without any real evidence to support this view, that shipments could resume late in 2007, but, even if this were true, it would be too late to have any influence on the course of Argentine prices this season.
Turning to China, the crop there is making reasonable progress. Crop indications earlier in 2007 were somewhat promising on account of the warm weather noted in March, but cooler weather conditions in early April slowed the honey flow. Despite this, in our May report, we estimated the total 2007 spring crop in the main producing provinces of Anhui, Hubei and Jiangsu amounted to some 18,500 mt (compared to 12,000 mt in 2006), but it seems that these estimates were on the low side, as we now believe that the total spring crops amount to some 21,000 mt. The summer crops are currently being harvested and the picture, so far, is mixed: the Henan and Hubei crops have suffered some excessive rainfall and we anticipate a decline in available quantities from these areas. The northern provinces of Hubei, Shanxi and Liaoning have suffered from drought and, more recently, from lower temperatures, but, nevertheless, we anticipate a summer crop of some 3,000 - 5,000 mt. The rape honey crops in the important provinces of Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang look promising but continuing good weather is needed to encourage a good crop of 3,000 mt. On the other hand, the western province of Qinghai has witnessed a decline in rape planting of 50% compared to 2006 - in favour of wheat - so, at best, the crop there will be greatly reduced. The Chinese acacia crop, however, looks good and there are estimates of a 20,000 mt crop, which is in sharp contrast to the poor Hungarian crop, which is suffering from low robinia pollen content and, therefore, a low fructose/glucose ratio. In terms of price, despite a strong RMB against the US Dollar, we continue to believe that Chinese honey, despite the necessary extra analysis costs, is fully competitive against Argentine honey and, thus, we see no reason why Chinese prices should decline in the short or medium terms.
With the Central American crops now exhausted and with concerns being raised on the high temperatures and drought in Eastern Europe, we do not believe that prices for Argentine or Chinese honey (in US Dollar terms) need to decline. All now depends on the level of demand coming into the market for autumn and winter shipments to the northern hemisphere and, for this, we need to wait a few weeks more.